ATLwxfan
Member
FV3 has 60’s in central Illinois on Monday.
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Last frame of the GEFS looked like all hell was about to break loose 
It’ll find a way to dump into Europe, even from that position! Some negative phase 6 of the MJO, will reverse pivot and flattulate and bring zonal flow to everyone!
“Some of our best snows happened in March”
Another good drop in the SOI today.
Another close hit. Still suppressed getting within 10 days.. also this model has been most consistent with a threat for around the 14th time period 
Then it close to another threat 2 more days out. But it is long range. 
P
P
Yes, there could be a winter event between days 12th/15th. But, confidence is low at this time.
Pattern change going full tilt in 6z GFS! Going from rainy southern sliders, to rainy apps rubbers! Winter just won’t give up!!
NorthGaWinter4
Member
Off topic I’m sure but have we gotten even a hint at a threat since the website change? Lol
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The negative East Asia Mountain Torque event I talked about last week (with low pressure over the Tibet Plateau and China) is now showing up in the medium range on most major ensemble suites. This is one of your first big warning signs of an upcoming pattern change because the negative mountain torque event will help retract/pull back the Pacific jet. This jet retraction allows the Aleutian low to retrograde westward in addition to more breathing room to dig southward, and leaves us with a more malleable, “wavy” jet stream that is thus more conducive to blocking downstream in the NE Pacific and Alaska (-EPO) in the longer term. It’ll take about a week or so for the Pacific jet to respond to this negative mountain torque over east Asia which puts us around the time when NWP is finally showing a favorable pattern for cold/snow, essentially about 2 weeks from now.
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Kylo
Member
One thing the GEFS nailed was the AO going negative. It’s had the 7-8th targeted for a while now. I would expect/hope this to get even better as we end January. I want to see it down in the 3-4 range.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
The middle of the month does look interesting. Just have to watch and see. We don't have any shortage of precip with the pattern we are in. Just need the cold to come with it.
These are both pretty big improvements. Hard to call it a trend yet, but if we can string 2-3 days of this together and watch it begin to work in, we can start to get a bit more confident.
SnowNiner
Member
Seeing the EPS fold to the GEFS is excellent news IMO. That look on the 19th looks pretty good to me...not even a WAR on that image! It's hard to believe actually. It's not perfect but that's getting into a money zone right there. Obviously it's going to change but if those fundamental elements stay, it's great news. If we can keep the SOI negative I think we could at least be in the game late January. If the bigfoot/unicorn actually shows up for real, February could be really fun. Hopefully these looks stay...
Golf7575
Member
Webber, my question to you becomes is this a temporary fix or longer lasting pattern change? Im referring to the EAMT event? Anyway this coincides with the SSW situation?
Golf7575
Member
The geps looked good also i thought
I think we are basically there. We may push a few more says but as a whole the light is at the end of the tunnel
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