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Snowflowxxl
Member
Cold push behind the initial storm on the 20th is something serious! Looks stronger than 18z so far at 132!
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Way more backside snow in NC, moisture lingers behind the front a bit
HP is significantly more stronger too 1046 vs 1040 at hr. 144. The progression of the arctic air Sun/Mon is definitely faster than 18z.
Just noticed that if you cycle back over the last few days of gfs runs the trend has been clearly to strengthen the high moving in on the back side. Almost makes you wonder if this long range set up actually has legs.
Wave is different entering California. No closed contour at 150
Jessy89
Member
Could still be a decent hit. But it’s definitely gonna be a different looking storm
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Yup here comes a new look. We will know in about 15-20 minutes..
GeorgiaGirl
Member
I also don't see that big and ridiculous HP dropping down from Canada.
Yes, just about a 45 degree difference in temps at 172.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Our energy def looks a lot different at 168 lol. This will be a new look.
it will definitely look different now at the sfc, this thing is not digging as much and is not closed off
Jessy89
Member
It will likely cut on this run
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Snowed In
Member
just something more noticeable.....the northeast looks much much colder compared to 18z
GeorgiaGirl
Member
lol
Compared to 18z the energy looks way different and kind of a mess.
I think a ULL still might end up forming though with the way this is looking.
Compared to 18z the energy looks way different and kind of a mess.
I think a ULL still might end up forming though with the way this is looking.
I think it will be a cutter. Don’t have a high pressure to the north to keep it from cutting. Also not enough cold air to the north. In my opinion.
Lol @ that GL low
Here comes look 2 of 100.. We will know now in about 5 minutes.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
IF this doesn't phase it could work.
But it's a way different look lol, and I think I saw some similar looks on the GEFS.
Edit: Eh maybe not on it could work, as it looks like the northern stream is interacting too much with it.
But it's a way different look lol, and I think I saw some similar looks on the GEFS.
Edit: Eh maybe not on it could work, as it looks like the northern stream is interacting too much with it.
Jessy89
Member
Lacking cold air
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Snowflowxxl
Member
Temps are as much as 50 degrees warmer across the country this run...
gfs shows that southeast ridge a bit more, would imagine more winter wx for western SE
Don’t understand why we have a nice high pressure the few runs before then it goes poof..
Jessy89
Member
This isn’t going to produce
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Showmeyourtds
Member
That LP in the GOM @ 204-210 looks to be taking aim at a NE turn
Here was the main issue imo. Need this northern piece to stay out ahead. It can’t drag ass for this to work. The good thing is if we can hold this look these northern pieces to the puzzle usually move much faster than they are modeled at this lead
Not going to happen with mid to upper 30’s 
GeorgiaGirl
Member
I think this run shows what an early phase would do actually.
Brent
Member
just dry cold here this run
again
and its really not even that cold
again
and its really not even that cold
Jessy89
Member
It’s ashamed perfect track. Without the cold air
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It’s a nice spot for the low. Just gotta have the high pressure to the north with the cold. I am not worry about this run. I will take it and run. I don’t think we will have to worry about the cold when it comes to intialization time.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
lol (again):
18z:
0z:
18z:
0z:
NSW has to come first to set the stage with cold air. It can’t all come all at once
JLL1973
Member
That was a bad run. No worries there will be a different solution in 6 hours.
By hour 240 at least GFS is delivering the cold into the CONUS, even if most of us miss the snow so far.
Showmeyourtds
Member
My thoughts as well. Low track is great-just need help at the BL...and honestly not that much help.
Stormlover
Member
By day 10? throw this out...Euro won't look like this