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Pattern Jammin' January

deltadog03 said:
I’ll put it this way...... if you don’t like the pattern we are about to head into, you don’t like weather.... period....

I think it’s only a matter of time before many on here see wintry weather. JS

PS just because an OP doesn’t show torch or snow on it, as others will say, the ENS will lead the way initially while the details will be worked out later with OP runs.
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Thank you delta!! Most people pays too much attention to the ops...Wish they could look at the overall pattern. It kinda like a puzzle. That’s why I enjoy it so much.
 
Something pervasively wrong with GEFS past day 10 with showing blocking. Been doing this for awhile.

EPS vs GEFS. Who do you think will win....

F58AA5AF-1F20-48C0-94DD-4BE810C11565.png22A29B88-A533-456A-8446-7FD8D7C12F49.png
 
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Jessy89 said:
I don’t understand how the gfs does what it did yesterday at 18z. And then loses the high all together. It goes from a 1055 high. To no high at all I mean you’d expect it to show up weaker and weaker but at least still be there. It’s just crazy how things changed In one run.


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As quick as an Op run can show a big SE crusher, it can take it away...this was the problem getting excited about the 18z run and I mentioned in banter there would be a drastic change with 00z

The reason is pure chaos. This is why we say follow the ensembles...it’s the rule because ensembles try to account for chaos in a pattern. If ensemble means are bouncing around run to run you know the pattern and modeling of that pattern is very chaotic, so there’s really no reason to even look at operationals. Models have not backed off on this period as a chance for the storm so we are still sitting good.

Put it this way:
Say you win a car I f you hit the bullseye on a target,
An operational run is like shooting one BB Pellet at a bullseye.
The GFS ensemble is like shooting 20 BBs at a bullseye
The EPS is like shooting 50.

Which would you rather trust to help you win?




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Why even pay attention to the OP runs if they dont take into account all the chaos? Might as well just look at the ensembles and nothing else.
 
Jessy89 said:
I don’t understand how the gfs does what it did yesterday at 18z. And then loses the high all together. It goes from a 1055 high. To no high at all I mean you’d expect it to show up weaker and weaker but at least still be there. It’s just crazy how things changed In one run.


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It happens the other way around too where the HP magically appears and drives the energy south. The joys of model-watching.


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SoutheastRidge said:
Why even pay attention to the OP runs if they dont take into account all the chaos? Might as well just look at the ensembles and nothing else.
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Really great question. The answer is, beyond day 7 or so, you shouldn't...maybe even less.

Ops have better resolution than the individual ensemble members. They are the most useful when the pattern is fairly stable and the range is not too far out. Once you get into a chaotic pattern and/or you're looking farther out in time, the ensemble mean is the best approach. Yes, it smooths out important details that often matter a great deal as to whether or not you get snow in the SE with any particular storm you might be looking at out in time. But they do help to identify periods where their might be a storm as well as depicting how the general nature of the pattern is likely to evolve.

All that said, ensembles are not perfect, especially at longer leads. But they are usually far more stable than the Ops. Also, when you see agreement across ensemble suites, that increases confidence. The reverse is also true.
 
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I mean, OP runs are really good to look at no doubt, but they can be susceptible to wild swings...as y'all know. To answer the question above on how can they models look so different...that just goes to show you if a model amps 1 part of a wave vs the other part, it has a different outcome. So, really, we are playing darts right now with ALL models at this point.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Why even pay attention to the OP runs if they dont take into account all the chaos? Might as well just look at the ensembles and nothing else.
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Operationals are only useful inside an appropriate skill range. Not saying to not look at them, but they have pretty bad skill overall this far out. Inside 120 hours maybe and that’s probably too much as that’s 5 days!


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Jon said:
Operationals are only useful inside an appropriate skill range. Not saying to not look at them, but they have pretty bad skill overall this far out. Inside 120 hours maybe and that’s probably too much as that’s 5 days!


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At what hour are OP runs very reliable ? 96 ? 72 ?
 
Jon said:
Operationals are only useful inside an appropriate skill range. Not saying to not look at them, but they have pretty bad skill overall this far out. Inside 120 hours maybe and that’s probably too much as that’s 5 days!


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Wish they would get rid of surface maps past day 6 like the UK.
 
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Kylo said:
Nothing to keep them storm track suppressed south on the EPS. The PV is to far north. But if it’s cold you like it will deliver some cold.
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My area can do very well with apps runners and inland runners. I’m no longer hunting a suppressed track . It’s mid January and the clock it ticking . I’ll take a score anyway I can get it


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Storm5 said:
My area can do very well with apps runners and inland runners. I’m no longer hunting a suppressed track . It’s mid January and the clock it ticking . I’ll take a score anyway I can get it


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Yeah as long as you get enough cold on the backside then there’s a shot here.
 
It seems for every bad gefs ensemble run we have 2 to 3 good ones which seems to make me think with those odds we have a good shot at a winter storm over a lot of the Deep South
 
Storm may have posted earlier. The 6z GEFS snowfall is simply amazing. Best run yet.
2" ensemble mean all the way down to Jackson MS and nearly to Montgomery AL.
6" plus for 75% of TN. Woof woof


GEFSSE_prec_meansnacc_384.png

GEFSSE_prec_snens_384.png
 
cyclogent said:
Storm may have posted earlier. The 6z GEFS snowfall is simply amazing. Best run yet.
2" ensemble mean all the way down to Jackson MS and nearly to Montgomery AL.
6" plus for 75% of TN. Woof woof


GEFSSE_prec_meansnacc_384.png

GEFSSE_prec_snens_384.png
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E5 is a solid hit for lower MS Valley

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These ensemble runs got me in a really good mood for the deep South especially in central Alabama... You can't be mad about what it's showing so far consistently... Our pattern change is definitely coming so expect more swings in the models for the better guys
 
I'm enjoying every post this morning, this is the kinda stuff I sit back and learn from the best. It's amazing how even 6z gfs OP run this morning didn't show a winter storm, but the ens our consistent with showing something special. Me for one I'm getting excited because our chances are pretty high ATM, and it's a matter of time where something will show again and more consistent.
 
Quick posting note:

So far this morning, everyone is mostly doing a good job keeping the comments on or close to the pattern and the models. Please keep that in mind as we work through the mid-day model cycles, as there are tons of members and guests reading the content.

Guests,

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I hope everyone is having a good morning!
 
This was the ensembles of the GFS last year before the arctic plunges. Just a story of caution as I ended up with literally 0 inches of snow.B2D170E8-2020-4EE9-AC56-EDE3A9060BC2.pngThis is Webber’s map of what actually happened during this period. FBBD752A-3F2B-4CEE-90EC-1D03DD4A97FD.png

Just goes to show you the potential but even this far out ensembles are not gospel either. patients folks, patients.
 
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Chattownsnow said:
This was the ensembles of the GFS last year before the arctic plunges. Just a story of caution as I ended up with literally 0 inches of snow. This is Webber’s map of what actually happened during this period.View attachment 11212This is Webber’s map of what actually happened during this period. View attachment 11213

Just goes to show you the potential but even this far out ensembles are not gospel either. patients folks, patients.
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I'll take my chances
 
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