Pattern Jammin' January

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snowlover91 said:
Verbatim that look would probably suppress and shred most systems keeping it cold/dry.
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I think you alluded to timing. If we can catch a wave riding in before the PV presses down too much OR if our cold press isn’t as strong OR if we can build those heights a little closer to the west coast it might be a go. If that fails I’ll gladly take a period of suppression so my lawn can dry out and get ready for when I seed it in a few weeks
 
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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I think you alluded to timing. If we can catch a wave riding in before the PV presses down too much OR if our cold press isn’t as strong OR if we can build those heights a little closer to the west coast it might be a go. If that fails I’ll gladly take a period of suppression so my lawn can dry out and get ready for when I seed it in a few weeks
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Yeah if the PV drops down like that generally the best way to get a good SE winter event is for a wave to move through as it's pressing down keeping it suppressed but not shearing it out or for one to roll through as it is slowly lifting out. My current thinking is after the 25th we should have some better chances here in the NC/SC area assuming the ridge out west behaves.
 
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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I think this is where @Rain Cold wants the PV. If this happens and it doesn’t snow, do we even deserve snow?
View attachment 11234
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I don't know why...I don't really like to look at anomaly charts when looking at the pattern. I find the 500 mb charts to be more useful. I mean, the one you posted is technically 500 mb, but the anomalies are the spotlight feature. I like this map better:

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While this is far and away better than a raging SE ridge, this is a mostly dry pattern. I like the PV displaced and held in SE Canada and a ridge along or just inland from the west coast. This map is going to feature cold, but most likely dry weather. A big U-shaped trough isn't conducive to storm formation.
 
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snowlover91 said:
For those of us in NC, SC and GA here is my take on the upcoming pattern and what we need to see for some winter weather chances.

Notice first that there is very little ridging out west so energy is entering the US and pretty "flat" which makes it incredibly easy for a storm to form and cut. Our storm on the 20th is in Nevada in this frame and you can see if it moved due east across the US it would take the low pressure over us or to the north. Now add in all the energy flying around and you get a storm that juices up and ends up cutting up the Apps putting our region in the warm sector.
View attachment 11231

Notice the next storm, this is the energy for the 23-25th system. Once again there is very little ridging out west and it is in almost an identical position to the previous storm. This would favor another cutter IMO.
View attachment 11233

Now notice the significant change that happens past 200+ hours that could change things in our favor. A tall ridge builds in and forces the energy to either go up and over it OR cut underneath it. This ridge is a bit far west for my liking but it's a 10 day run so no need to go into details. The main takeaway is we finally have a large ridge that can help force some of the energy to the south into Texas/Mexico which is where we want to see it for a nice Miller A or southern slider scenario to occur. Model don't really develop this feature until around the 24-25th so I would look to see how this evolves in future more runs. Without this feature places in NC, SC and GA will need to either hope for the PV to drop south and suppress the storm track (but also risk shredding the energy, cold/dry pattern) or hope for a perfectly timed sequence of waves which is difficult to accomplish.
View attachment 11235

The EPS also agrees quite well with the look overall, again I'd like to see the Western Ridge shifted east a bit but it is still a much better look than what we have taking place the next 7 days.
View attachment 11237

The 12z Euro look is closer to what we want but still needs to shift things east a little bit more.
View attachment 11238
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Honestly, I know many on here will jump down my throat for saying this, but I think all we need for good wintry weather in SC and Ga is a -EPO ( Tall ridge) which now all models are forecasting.
 
Rain Cold said:
I don't know why...I don't really like to look at anomaly charts when looking at the pattern. I find the 500 mb charts to be more useful. I mean, the one you posted is technically 500 mb, but the anomalies are the spotlight feature. I like this map better:

View attachment 11241

While this is far and away better than a raging SE ridge, this is a mostly dry pattern. I like the PV displaced and held in SE Canada and a ridge along or just inland from the west coast. This map is going to feature cold, but most likely dry weather. A big U-shaped trough isn't conducive to storm formation.
Click to expand...

I think what we will need to look for if we get the tall ridge as modeled are storms cutting under it and heading through the Gulf. We need that ridge east a bit and the PV just a touch north. Honestly this far out the overall setup is pretty good and the details can be worked out as we get closer, we at least have the players lining up. Whether or not they can snap the football before the clock runs out is another story...
 
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Rain Cold said:
I don't know why...I don't really like to look at anomaly charts when looking at the pattern. I find the 500 mb charts to be more useful. I mean, the one you posted is technically 500 mb, but the anomalies are the spotlight feature. I like this map better:

View attachment 11241

While this is far and away better than a raging SE ridge, this is a mostly dry pattern. I like the PV displaced and held in SE Canada and a ridge along or just inland from the west coast. This map is going to feature cold, but most likely dry weather. A big U-shaped trough isn't conducive to storm formation.
Click to expand...
I can remember storms as a kid where it would snow and be in the 30s for highs the rest of the week. I’m guessing those storms came from energy riding a digging PV with Arctic air staying thereafter?
 
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Meteorologist1999 said:
Honestly, I know many on here will jump down my throat for saying this, but I think all we need for good wintry weather in SC and Ga is a -EPO ( Tall ridge) which now all models are forecasting.
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It's an important piece of the puzzle for sure. I personally like a nice PNA out west that forces our energy to dig south into Texas/Mexico area or undercuts it and enters over the Baja region. That's how we get a lot of our GOM Miller A storms and gives some nice wiggle room even if the storm amps up some. Models show this feature developing after the 24th and as we get closer I wouldn't be surprised if more wintry solutions begin appearing... we just have to patiently wait for the 20th and 23-24th system to pass first.
 
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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I can remember storms as a kid where it would snow and be in the 30s for highs the rest of the week. I’m guessing those storms came from energy riding a digging PV with Arctic air staying thereafter?
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In order for it to get cold and stay cold, you have to have ridging out west and/or blocking. Something has to continually feed cold air in (continuous northerly flow) or you have to have something to trap the PV near the area (blocking). I don't know what the actual pattern was for the storms you're talking about, but it was most likely one of those two or a combination of both.
 
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deltadog03 said:
I know it’s been said a million times but patience is key. Euro is usually the best but just look how different it is every run from D5-10. Another new look today. It’s gonna happen.
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Agreed. We need to start looking at NOGAPS , Korean, and JMA. One of the models is bound to be first to see the next SE snowstorm, which should begin to pop up anyday now. Bet we are tracking by the weekend.
By sunday we will be able to see into February 240hr mark
 
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