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Pattern Jammin' January

Webberweather53 said:
The CPC has sub-zero wind chill probability graphics to corroborate their temperature outlooks & interestingly they're forecasting a near or above 50% chance for sub zero wind chills along & north of the I-40 corridor. This is at least 3-4x higher than the long-term climatology. Yowza


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And the top CPC analog for the 8-14 day period is Jan 12 2009, which lead to this...
b838f4fc8a4592fb75c47fd7e45c49aa.gif



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Something everyone should bear in mind when reading these model surface temp maps, particularly for stormy periods, is the tendency to raise the daytime temps too high for the cooler side of these winter storms. I have seen so many high temperatures bust low when there was CAA with cloud cover. Models will sometimes scootch the clouds out quicker than they actually do. And even in the heart of winter, having the sun hidden can make a huge difference in whether you have a high in the upper 50s or mid 40s (as an example from MBY in winter). It's how we roll with our winters down south! :)

All that to say, with the upcoming pattern of waves of arctic cold and a potentially active STJ we could multiple cold gray days ahead for many of us.
 
Nice Job Delta Dog. Also web map looks spot on today for my county, Randolph. But Forsyth had a min of.4 if not excess.5 last night. To their north stokes and surry got saved by sleet and look accurate from what ive seen and heard.
 
18z gefs member 7 would be the most historic Ice storm to ever take place in NC.

2DEE51BF-D4C1-4638-97F1-FB79A58C4982.gif
Member 7 drops 3-4inch of qpf as sleet/zr for NC.

Also this storm is a high ice threat. I think if a storm comes on the 20th we will be dealing with a major ice storm.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
18z gefs member 7 would be the most historic Ice storm to ever take place in NC.

View attachment 11000
Member 7 drops 3-4inch of qpf as sleet/zr for NC.

Also this storm is a high ice threat. I think if a storm comes on the 20th we will be dealing with a major ice storm.
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That’s a lot for south and North Carolina


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Yeah, if that upper level system on the 20th trends even further south and slows down, we could deal with some nasty ice here in the Carolinas, there will likely be a pretty strong high pressure to our north, and we will have one thing we have been lacking all winter, snowpack to our north
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yeah, if that upper level system trends even further south, we could deal with some nasty ice here in the Carolinas, there will likely be a pretty strong high pressure to our north, and we will have one thing we have been lacking all winter, snowpack to our north
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Unfortunately you are right. This storm has tons of qpf... could be setting up for a very very dangerous ice threat across the south.

I guess we are due? If you believe in that type of forecasting:p
 
Fountainguy97 said:
18z gefs member 7 would be the most historic Ice storm to ever take place in NC.

View attachment 11000
Member 7 drops 3-4inch of qpf as sleet/zr for NC.

Also this storm is a high ice threat. I think if a storm comes on the 20th we will be dealing with a major ice storm.
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look at bama it would be harsh for us as well
 
What would 3-4 inches of freezing rain even look like? Could you imagine the damage it would do


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Jessy89 said:
What would 3-4 inches of freezing rain even look like? Could you imagine the damage it would do


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It would cripple an entire region for weeks. Roads completely inaccessible to emergency personnel and road clearing crews. Most trees would suffer catastrophic damage. Power poles, wooden and steel, would snap/crumble to the ground. Countless structures like barns, awnings, and even poorly constructed homes would risk collapse.
 
NWTENN said:
It would cripple an entire region for weeks. Roads completely inaccessible to emergency personnel and road clearing crews. Most trees would suffer catastrophic damage. Power poles, wooden and steel, would snap/crumble to the ground. Countless structures like barns, awnings, and even poorly constructed homes would risk collapse.
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Memories of 1994
 
NWS LIX already hinting at a potential (but low end) chance for some wintry precip for the back end of the storm system coming through on 19/20th time frame, which would be the initial surge of arctic air.

LONG TERM...
High pressure dome slowly moderates while moving east Wednesday,
allowing for some baroclinic return from the west Wednesday night
into Thursday. This will be the next best chance for rainfall that
likely carries through the weekend. Rain is more convective in
nature Thursday night along and ahead of a cold front that is
primarily a wind shift boundary. Much colder surge takes place
Friday night as rain transitions to isentropic lift stratiform as
the colder air wedges in. Precipitation becomes a cold rain
Saturday with even a remote chance that some transition to wintry
precipitation can not be ruled out before the process ends
Saturday night. At this time, will leave as all liquid, but
rapidly falling thicknesses on strong cold air advection will have
to assessed in subsequent model runs heading into next weekend.
Despite this, next weekend looks to be a raw stretch of cold and
windy with at least light freeze conditions likely Sunday morning.
https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...IX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
 
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