Pattern Jammin' January

[Myfrotho704_]

I can confirm the fv has a bias where HP’s are way to strong, noticing that a lot now and these hp’s never verify

 

[TheBatman]

I'm not sure if the FV3 runs belong here or in the banter thread at this point. A 1057mb high? Really?

It could happen. No kidding.

 

[ForsythSnow]

I don’t know if it’s possible or not. But would be incredible


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

And that produces a low that cuts west of the Mississippi river. Fun for everyone on the other side of the river.

 

[cg2916]

I guess high placement doesn't matter if it's 1057mb.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

FV3 has some wintry in the western part of the SE but the SE ridge got even stronger this run. So it's more Louisiana and Western Mississippi.

 

[Jessy89]

Almost like we are going to continue to struggle to get the millar A we want. But we have the cold shots


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Storm5]

E7 for the win , this is the 20-21st system

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[whatalife]

The 18z GEFS hasn’t disappointed over the last couple of nights. The ridge out west continues to look better starting next weekend.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[No snow for you]

Give me e12. Screw the MA.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

This +PNA looks really good but I wonder if the FV3 can really be trusted after 7 days:

 

[ForsythSnow]

E7 for the win , this is the 20-21st system

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Nah gotta take that e12 upset. It's unlrealistic however I'm sure. I'm sure the GA and SC crowd would love it though. Of course if you want history take e2. I wonder how it got down there.

 

[No snow for you]

The GFS has the death rattle. It knows it’s days are coming to an end. I am tossing from here on out unless it shows me getting a foot of snow.

 

[NWMSGuy]

Hr 240 and forward on the FV3 has a nasty winter storm for the Memphis/Midsouth region.

 

[Jon]

This +PNA looks really good but I wonder if the FV3 can really be trusted after 7 days:

View attachment 10971

That’s more of a -EPO. Would allow deep cold, but yeah I wouldn’t look at the FV3 op or any op right now. Extreme run to run fluctuations.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Kylo]

Impressive

 

[Storm5]

These FV3 runs are getting wild


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[TheBatman]

18z GEFS snowfall mean.

 

[whatalife]

These FV3 runs are getting wild


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yep wild...

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Brick Tamland]

My bit of a thought though is remember that in winter systems the models show thing "way out" then will "lose them" 7-10 days out only to "find them" again 5 days out. Several times, IMO that has led to some of the better systems..

I'm not sure I would consider 3-5 days really kicking the can, its not like we are saying by early February we will be better. The 20th and 23rd systems are also worth keeping an eye on, I just believe they are more likely to end up to our NW.

I agree, that has happened before, and I also agree that 3 to 5 days is not a long time. But I meant from now to the 25th is a long time when it comes to weather. Maybe I am being greedy, but we were liking at three possible systems between the 20th and 25th, and now it looks like we are looking more at just the 25th. Maybe there is so much going on that week and so many possibilities that the models are going to be going back and forth like crazy until then.

 

[1300m]

A lot of the board gets at least some snow on the 18z GEFS with the 1/20 system.