Pattern Jammin January 2024

[CNCsnwfan1210]

Are there any analog dates for this H5 pattern?

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[ghost1]

View attachment 138976
I’ve been looking for weeks for something like this to show up…. Please hang in there ????

And just like that…. Poof it’s gone

 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

No that not a SER. You can tell it on the 500mb charts. It’s just a strong Arctic front with a strong southerly push of warm air out ahead of it. Doesn’t really matter much since it’s hour 384 of the OP GFS

Yeah, theoretically it should push through and deliver some cold to the SE as well, though probably muted east of the Apps as usual. But as you point out, a 384 GFS is nothing more than a passing idea. I sympathize with HugeSnow however, that Feb 21 arctic robbery still living in my head.

 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

Some good hits for wave 1 and 2 on the gefs. If I was a betting man, and that looked sticked around, wave 2 would be my choice for scoring

Lets do both!

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

The chance of a SSWE continues to look good. Dare I say likely for the first 10 days of 2024?

 

[griteater]

Are there any analog dates for this H5 pattern?

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Here are the analog dates from NOAA CPC for days 8-14 (Dec 31 - Jan 6). The most notable dates are from late Dec 2001 (prior to the early Jan 2002 storm)

 

[griteater]

This gefs run is good examples of how we snow. Constant confluence from the low heights in the NE/Atlantic, active southern stream, which then the translates to more confluence as stream interaction happens and it moves to our east/NE, and more southern stream moving in. loaded diaper pattern. Gefs has this look a couple times View attachment 138995
View attachment 138992View attachment 138993View attachment 138994

Yeah we remain in the game here in early Jan. Need the southern stream waves to move west to east at a fairly low latitude (not too far north) and sharpen at just the right time. W Canada ridge and trough off the NE coast are doing their job thus far

 

[Chazwin]

Here are the analog dates from NOAA CPC for days 8-14 (Dec 31 - Jan 6). The most notable dates are from late Dec 2001 (prior to the early Jan 2002 storm)

View attachment 138999

Good to see the time period going into that January 2002 storm in there. That storm in particular is a great example of how we can end up with a big snowstorm without much of a snowpack off to our NW.

 

[griteater]

The chance of a SSWE continues to look good. Dare I say likely for the first 10 days of 2024?

The 12z Euro Op run was making a strong dash for it (SSW)

View attachment 139008

 

[CaryWx]

 

[Brent]

Weenie run here

 

[Jrips2710]

0z Euro has a 1/1-1/2 system. Temps suck though and it’s a nice cold rain for most.

 

[BullCityWx]

Second storm has life on the 6z but of course this is way way way off.

 

[FallsLake]

CFS had a storm at day 11-12.

Snow dept afterwards:

 

[FallsLake]

Second storm has life on the 6z but of course this is way way way off.

Yeah, it's going to be nice to get one of these "storms" to get within 7 days.

 

[Tarheel1]

Weenie run here View attachment 139015

Snow hole here, we toss!

 

[Southern Track]

0z Euro has a 1/1-1/2 system. Temps suck though and it’s a nice cold rain for most. View attachment 139016

Im not too disappointed with that run. Just need the track to be a little further south.

 

[Tarheel1]

Can see it’s a Roxboro special already, on 6z GFS

 

[Jrips2710]

 

[Webberweather53]

Meh.