Euro might try again, but personally like the look the 00z had more in regards to the EC trough, and weakness under the western Canada ridge 
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Pattern Jammin January 2024
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
I don’t think we’re gonna get the perfect setup every run.
Just analyzing rtr
Looking at the ensembles, the look that they are showing toward mid-late month if you follow it on out is very interesting.
ghost1
Member
I’ve been looking for weeks for something like this to show up…. Please hang in there ????
Carolina Sky
Member
Canadian and Euro both have a system for Jan 2.
HugeSnowStick
Member
So what, it looks like, the effing SER?
No that not a SER. You can tell it on the 500mb charts. It’s just a strong Arctic front with a strong southerly push of warm air out ahead of it. Doesn’t really matter much since it’s hour 384 of the OP GFS
Gotta watch these looks on the ens with the southern stream and deep Atlantic confluence. If we’re gonna pop a winter storm up, it’s somewhere close to this exact look. 
HugeSnowStick
Member
Come on this like years past ,,21 is Seattle, give me a break
Also looking at the teleconnections the last couple days, they really are following how would expect unfold climo-wise for a moderate to strong El Niño. The AO is about to tank just after the first of the month and the NAO is headed negative as well so there should be good blocking setting up. The PNA does start to go negative as the Pacific jet retracts again but like you said that process should help to beef up the -NAO.
This gefs run is good examples of how we snow. Constant confluence from the low heights in the NE/Atlantic, active southern stream, which then the translates to more confluence as stream interaction happens and it moves to our east/NE, and more southern stream moving in. loaded diaper pattern. Gefs has this look a couple times 
Again it was hour 384 from the OP 12z GFS. The 18z has a fairly good overrunning snowstorm for northern GA and the Carolinas in that same timeframe
The lower heights over the NE and northern Atlantic is really very similar to January 2022 when we here in the NC Piedmont had 3 straight weekends with accumulating snow. The big difference is how active the STJ is staying on these looks… in 2022 we were depending solely on northern stream energy as the STJ was virtually non-existing
Yeah the southern stream that year didn’t wanna play fair at all. But those setups had some very deep, legit cold as well, these ens looks showing up look warmer, more marginal, but that’s typical for a El Niño. Very good look coming imo. Better then anything last winter
Some good hits for wave 1 and 2 on the gefs. If I was a betting man, and that looked sticked around, wave 2 would be my choice for scoring
Absolutely. I also believe that CAD could be very stout with these looks. One thing that’s going for us east of the mountains is the fact that eastern Canada has managed to hold on to a fair amount of snowpack. These lower heights should lead to some good high pressure placement over the NE to tap into that cold air.
Carolina Sky
Member
Euro, Canadian and GFS are all sounding alarms.