tractor girl
Member
Athens, GA
Temp: -2.0
Precip: +4.0”
Snow: +1”
Temp: -2.0
Precip: +4.0”
Snow: +1”
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Pattern Jammin January 2024
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
The number keeps creeping up....
Jrips2710
Member
I’d imagine we’re gonna have some noise on the GEFS around the 1/3-1/4 timeframe with this look 
Overnight euro at hour 240:
10:1 snow:
Surface at hour 240:
Still out there in time, but 10 days in better than the 14-16 day (or CFS day 25) fantasy storms.
10:1 snow:
Surface at hour 240:
Still out there in time, but 10 days in better than the 14-16 day (or CFS day 25) fantasy storms.
We have never seen a pattern this good in our lifetimes.
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
You buy a sled yet?
The first week of January looks encouraging, probably the most optimistic I’ve been about our snowy prospects in years. I lowballed it on my snow forecast for January, but I personally think January will be our best month for potential here vs February.
iGRXY
Member
This is the best I’ve felt about a pattern since January 2022. Beautiful 5 day averages with tons of confluence over the 50/50 region, sagging TPV down to the Hudson Bay, nice western Canadian and Alaskan ridge, and an active southern jet that is also getting a lot of northern stream influence out of the Pacific Northwest and western Canada. This is actually has real cold air in it from the 50/50 trough and sagging TPV. IF and that’s a big if you can hold this look, I feel really confident of a winter storm north of 20 across the southeast.
JLL1973
Member
The H5 map on the 06z GFS is just beautiful
BHS1975
Member
BHS1975
Member
Can score in with lakes low but decent HP needs to be Montreal/upstate NY area and blocked a bit
In this case it’s giving us confluence/our cold feed. Perhaps a phaser ?
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Boys and girls..... what we have here is a picture of the perfect winter storm pattern for the southeast. "It don't get no better than that".
tennessee storm
Member
To bad it’s 6z gfs lol
Euro might try again, but personally like the look the 00z had more in regards to the EC trough, and weakness under the western Canada ridge 
I don’t think we’re gonna get the perfect setup every run.
Just analyzing rtr
Looking at the ensembles, the look that they are showing toward mid-late month if you follow it on out is very interesting.
ghost1
Member
I’ve been looking for weeks for something like this to show up…. Please hang in there ????
Canadian and Euro both have a system for Jan 2.
HugeSnowStick
Member
So what, it looks like, the effing SER?
No that not a SER. You can tell it on the 500mb charts. It’s just a strong Arctic front with a strong southerly push of warm air out ahead of it. Doesn’t really matter much since it’s hour 384 of the OP GFS
Gotta watch these looks on the ens with the southern stream and deep Atlantic confluence. If we’re gonna pop a winter storm up, it’s somewhere close to this exact look. 
HugeSnowStick
Member
Come on this like years past ,,21 is Seattle, give me a break
Also looking at the teleconnections the last couple days, they really are following how would expect unfold climo-wise for a moderate to strong El Niño. The AO is about to tank just after the first of the month and the NAO is headed negative as well so there should be good blocking setting up. The PNA does start to go negative as the Pacific jet retracts again but like you said that process should help to beef up the -NAO.
This gefs run is good examples of how we snow. Constant confluence from the low heights in the NE/Atlantic, active southern stream, which then the translates to more confluence as stream interaction happens and it moves to our east/NE, and more southern stream moving in. loaded diaper pattern. Gefs has this look a couple times 
Again it was hour 384 from the OP 12z GFS. The 18z has a fairly good overrunning snowstorm for northern GA and the Carolinas in that same timeframe
The lower heights over the NE and northern Atlantic is really very similar to January 2022 when we here in the NC Piedmont had 3 straight weekends with accumulating snow. The big difference is how active the STJ is staying on these looks… in 2022 we were depending solely on northern stream energy as the STJ was virtually non-existing
Yeah the southern stream that year didn’t wanna play fair at all. But those setups had some very deep, legit cold as well, these ens looks showing up look warmer, more marginal, but that’s typical for a El Niño. Very good look coming imo. Better then anything last winter
Some good hits for wave 1 and 2 on the gefs. If I was a betting man, and that looked sticked around, wave 2 would be my choice for scoring
Absolutely. I also believe that CAD could be very stout with these looks. One thing that’s going for us east of the mountains is the fact that eastern Canada has managed to hold on to a fair amount of snowpack. These lower heights should lead to some good high pressure placement over the NE to tap into that cold air.
Euro, Canadian and GFS are all sounding alarms.