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Pattern Jammin January 2024

Are there any analog dates for this H5 pattern?
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Chazwin said:
No that not a SER. You can tell it on the 500mb charts. It’s just a strong Arctic front with a strong southerly push of warm air out ahead of it. Doesn’t really matter much since it’s hour 384 of the OP GFS
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Yeah, theoretically it should push through and deliver some cold to the SE as well, though probably muted east of the Apps as usual. But as you point out, a 384 GFS is nothing more than a passing idea. I sympathize with HugeSnow however, that Feb 21 arctic robbery still living in my head.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This gefs run is good examples of how we snow. Constant confluence from the low heights in the NE/Atlantic, active southern stream, which then the translates to more confluence as stream interaction happens and it moves to our east/NE, and more southern stream moving in. loaded diaper pattern. Gefs has this look a couple times View attachment 138995
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Yeah we remain in the game here in early Jan. Need the southern stream waves to move west to east at a fairly low latitude (not too far north) and sharpen at just the right time. W Canada ridge and trough off the NE coast are doing their job thus far
 
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griteater said:
Here are the analog dates from NOAA CPC for days 8-14 (Dec 31 - Jan 6). The most notable dates are from late Dec 2001 (prior to the early Jan 2002 storm)

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Good to see the time period going into that January 2002 storm in there. That storm in particular is a great example of how we can end up with a big snowstorm without much of a snowpack off to our NW.
 
Where is the MJO going to be the first week of January? I stole this from either Eric or Alan a few years back.

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KyloG said:
Where is the MJO going to be the first week of January? I stole this from either Eric or Alan a few years back.

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It looks like it will be a while before it comes back around to 7&8. Maybe late January around the same time when the effects of the looming major SSWE kicks in? ???
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This winter is doing pretty much exactly what I thought it would do thus far, even down to the week-to-week variability in the flow pattern.

Wouldn’t anticipate much of anything substantial til late January or so, but that’s pretty normal for winters like this. In the off chance it snows before then, great, but it’s a bonus
 
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