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Pattern Jammin January 2024

Webberweather53 said:
If this was even reasonably close to normal, I could definitely see reason for excitement in early Jan. We’ll probably get this fixed later in January
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I think we are seeing an average disconnect of the Deep South probably being out of much early on due to surface temps vs Mountains and more of the Northern SE will probably scoring earlier.
 
Shawn said:
I think we are seeing an average disconnect of the Deep South probably being out of much early on due to surface temps vs Mountains and more of the Northern SE will probably scoring earlier.
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Am I tripping or globals/ens means been retrograding the pattern faster, and blocking up the NATL quicker, great pattern to bring back legit cold in NW Canada can see cold pooling up in NW can on end of ens means. But the earlier/quicker retraction is making the overall pattern in early jan more meh
 
Webberweather53 said:
This winter is doing pretty much exactly what I thought it would do thus far, even down to the week-to-week variability in the flow pattern.

Wouldn’t anticipate much of anything substantial til late January or so, but that’s pretty normal for winters like this. In the off chance it snows before then, great, but it’s a bonus
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Well since Feb is now a Spring month for my area that should leave me with a few days to score...all in baby!
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Am I tripping or globals/ens means been retrograding the pattern faster, and blocking up the NATL quicker, great pattern to bring back legit cold in NW Canada can see cold pooling up in NW can on end of ens means. But the earlier/quicker retraction is making the overall pattern in early jan more meh
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I mean, I think enough can sink down if timing is right even for your area. Down here around I-20 will probably need more "umpfh" so to speak.
 
In the very long term (late Jan ish onward), I see tons of reasons to be excited about snow potential.

Classic polar vortex split pattern here on the EPS and GEFS. Sensible impacts in the troposphere usually occur more quickly during PV split cases than displacement events, especially when it comes to -NAO.

Getting the -NAO to show up during the onset of Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events is the key to getting it to couple to the stratosphere and anchor in place for a long time. Wouldn’t surprise me if this particular -NAO hits and holds, and lingers around possibly even into March. Classic way to set us up for a big hurricane season next year.


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Webberweather53 said:
This winter is doing pretty much exactly what I thought it would do thus far, even down to the week-to-week variability in the flow pattern.

Wouldn’t anticipate much of anything substantial til late January or so, but that’s pretty normal for winters like this. In the off chance it snows before then, great, but it’s a bonus
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It’s wild how it almost feels unrealistic for February to be an active Winter weather month. Lately, it feels like Winter basically is over after January 31st. I’ve missed the classic late Jan into Feb Winters. It’s been since 2015 I believe since we saw a favorable Winter weather pattern in the Southeast in the month of February. Let’s make that month great again.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Am I tripping or globals/ens means been retrograding the pattern faster, and blocking up the NATL quicker, great pattern to bring back legit cold in NW Canada can see cold pooling up in NW can on end of ens means. But the earlier/quicker retraction is making the overall pattern in early jan more meh
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To me the good looking pacific goes away very quickly and the western trough establishes faster. I know, but -nao, but meh for me.
 
Mitch West said:
It’s wild how it almost feels unrealistic for February to be an active Winter weather month. Lately, it feels like Winter basically is over after January 31st. I’ve missed the classic late Jan into Feb Winters. It’s been since 2015 I believe since we saw a favorable Winter weather pattern in the Southeast in the month of February. Let’s make that month great again.
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I wouldn’t base anything on February off of recent history when we haven’t had an El Niño like this since… 2015-2016.
 
Webberweather53 said:
In the very long term (late Jan ish onward), I see tons of reasons to be excited about snow potential.

Classic polar vortex split pattern here on the EPS and GEFS. Sensible impacts in the troposphere usually occur more quickly during PV split cases than displacement events, especially when it comes to -NAO.

Getting the -NAO to show up during the onset of Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events is the key to getting it to couple to the stratosphere and anchor in place for a long time. Wouldn’t surprise me if this particular -NAO hits and holds, and lingers around possibly even into March. Classic way to set us up for a big hurricane season next year.


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View attachment 139041
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Holy cow almost spit my coke out at those images. The models really want to lock the TPV over NA this time.
 
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