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Pattern Jammin January 2024

SD said:
Strat pv really takes a beating on the op gfs and the geps mean
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Yeah, that's interesting. The EMCF extended ensemble suddenly picked up on this same mid-month time frame yesterday too.
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I know I mentioned the other day that it wouldn't surprise me if I20 zeros out this year. And it still won't if that blocking doesn't materialize as strong as shown. If it does however it wouldn't surprise me to see I20 and coastal regions score before the I85 crowd. Seems like that's how Jan 2018 went down during that great 2 weeks. Charleston and coastal regions first then the upstate. Leaving a painful snowhole in the Midlands. Although I don't remember that period being caused by a -NAO though.
 
Looks like we'll need to be patient for that elusive boardwide crush job. In the meantime, I tend to think our best shot at snowfall the next few weeks will be setups that won't be modeled until 2-3 days out. Trailing energy behind a cutter or Miller B, or light overrunning on the backside of a retreating HP - small events that can produce 1-3"/2-4" on a smaller sub-regional scale. It'll happen just have to be patient and let things play out. :)
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
I know I mentioned the other day that it wouldn't surprise me if I20 zeros out this year. And it still won't if that blocking doesn't materialize as strong as shown. If it does however it wouldn't surprise me to see I20 and coastal regions score before the I85 crowd. Seems like that's how Jan 2018 went down during that great 2 weeks. Charleston and coastal regions first then the upstate. Leaving a painful snowhole in the Midlands. Although I don't remember that period being caused by a -NAO though.
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There was a -NAO during that time period but the biggest reason behind the deep cold was just how far south the PV pushed to suppress the storm track and being that we were in a La Niña there was no STJ to work with. While I lean towards I-20 and possibly at least the NC coast scoring once this year, I have feeling that with the active STJ of an El Niño, we are going to end up with a strong CAD Miller B or hybrid storm while the -NAO and blocking becomes established and there’s still a slightly -PNA
 
CNCsnwfan1210 said:
Pretty impressive blocking up top
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It's deeply rooted into the stratosphere as well. Here the Northern Annular Mode (i.e. AO) is negative thru the full troposphere and stratosphere. This is a legit block

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Here the zonal wind chart shows how the weaker than normal winds are downwelling from the stratosphere into the troposphere

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EmersonGA said:
I think that would satisfy everyone outside of some NC folks. Two different setups though.
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I would certainly be happy with either. 2/12/10 I got 5” after only being forecast flurries 24 hours earlier and 1/10/11 gave me 6” with ice on top and it stayed on the ground close to a week.
 
griteater said:
Euro Ensemble looks just fine (like CMCEns)

View attachment 139973
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It will be really nice to get this look to about the D7 range just one time. At least it's not the complete dumpster fire look we saw yesterday...though I haven't seen frames later than what you posted yet.
 
Kirk Mellish

@MellishMeterWSB
·
2m

No snow risk for #MetroAtlanta for at least the next 10 days. But the signals and data continue to trend to a more wintry pattern for most of the US as we move through this month and February with stratospheric polar vortex disruption and high latitude blocking -AO/NAO. Patience
 
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