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Pattern Jammin January 2024

griteater said:
Euro Control says yes! I really don't think the heavy blocking shown here is far fetched. We just gotta somehow get the trough to kick east

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This isn’t far fetched at all and honestly it follows the typical progression of an El Niño. Also it’s very much like Webb has indicated we should see things play out.
 
griteater said:
GFS was a little colder this run :)

This is the run to run change map for 850mb temps:

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I know it is super long range, but even at super long range this is ridiculous cold!!! the last 66 hours every state in the continental United states (except Fla and S. Carolina) has some location that never rises above freezing.
 
BullCityWx said:
View attachment 139913View attachment 139915


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What you forgot to leave out was the PNA. It’s headed strongly negative. Without a positive PNA, something trademark of February 2015, cold temperatures will have trouble reaching the southeastern United States and combining with the moisture. only marginal cool stationed in the southeast in will exist in which the strongly negative PNA will drive the cold to the southwestern US with a considerable but not excessive ridge over the southeast (thanks to El Niño). While this seems counterintuitive to the current state of Enso (El Nino), the truth is that the atmosphere is still under the “muscle memory” of the last three years predominating La Niña. After or around Jan 20th is when Webber believes the trough will eye the southeast and I agree to some extent, but the question remains whether it will be a dry cold, as which occurred in Dec of 2022. The point I’m trying to make is that I believe before the south sees snow the core region where well below normal temps exists over southwest Canada will have to at least moderate and/or shift to slightly above normal temps/heights if not above normal heights (+PNA -EPO).
 
Interested to see if all 3 ops do like they did at 12z and give some of us a quick front end thump on 1/9 system. Only game in town is chasing these front end thumps and praying that trough swings east under the block afterwards/ LR. If it does, we will get a good 4 -7 day window of opportunity to be cold enough for more than a 1-3 hour longshot that winds up Cold Rain.
 
Stevo24 said:
Mid month and after? Or are we going the wrong way after.
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There’s legitimately a little window right after mid-month for us to score before we get one more (but quick) minor warm-up. I don’t think it’ll be all that mild down south near the end of Jan, these are mid-winter warm spells in Ninos usually are centered over New England & Atlantic Canada.

After this brief pattern reshuffling occurs, we are probably going to see winter really turn it on. Imho, we are still being setup for a Fab February this year (per usual for big Ninos).
 
Webberweather53 said:
There’s legitimately a little window right after mid-month for us to score before we get one more (but quick) minor warm-up. I don’t think it’ll be all that mild down south near the end of Jan, these are mid-winter warm spells in Ninos usually are centered over New England & Atlantic Canada.

After this brief pattern reshuffling occurs, we are probably going to see winter really turn it on. Imho, we are still being setup for a Fab February this year (per usual for big Ninos).
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Do you see all of these cutters eventually coming to an end?
 
Stevo24 said:
Do you see all of these cutters eventually coming to an end?
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We’re seeing the cutters right now because there’s not much blocking established yet. As blocking builds and the -NAO gets established, that will push the storm track further south and east… very typical of El Niño. We do stand a good chance though of seeing some Miller Bs as that process occurs which like Webb said could set up a chance for us to score just after mid month
 
Never have and never will be a fan of strong el nino patterns. Always get flooded with pac air and learned the lesson years ago, how frustrating they can be.
That said, the excuse we need to have a snowpack over the midwest / Canada ( which has credence) Can't be used post Jan 15th. All the ensembles show a favorable pattern, thinks to Blocking to getting us some bonified cold air to work with. It should yield a 5-7 day window at minimum. My fear is we get no help/energy during that time to work with. Always pivots back to timing for us. January 2000 shows you what can happen when you time things up right. Was the greatest 9-10 day pattern/luck we ever netted. As always Id rather be sitting here cold chasing the qpf than the oppositte. Give me the cold first.
To early to tell where we go last week of Jan into final month of Met winter. Climo/history gives credence to it being favorable. We will have to wait and see. Right now , just want to see the day 12 Great pattern actually get here. But it want lock in for 30 days. My guess is from Jan 16-Jan 23 we got this cold window. But it will roll over into something different past then. Whether its a repeat or reset back into what we have been experiencing December, first half January, remains to be seen.

GFS forecasted snow cover Jan 15th:

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