Pattern Jammin January 2024

[Mitch West]

I don't even see how that's physically realistic.

It’s from 3 days ago also which is equivalent to 5 weeks ago in weather model time.

 

[jeremyt]

It’s from 3 days ago also which is equivalent to 5 weeks ago in weather model time.

I understand, I was just looking back over the past weeks model runs and saw it, thought it was interesting. Like I said in op, I know its slim to none to happen.

 

[Flotown]

i dont really hate where we are going with the models..cold looks to be on the move toward end of euro

 

[tennessee storm]

i dont really hate where we are going with the models..cold looks to be on the move toward end of euro

Always at the end unfortunately…. Still think most January will be toast . February looks lot better with mjo movement

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Always at the end unfortunately…. Still think most January will be toast . February looks lot better with mjo movement

Yep. Pacific forcing will come back in late jan/early Feb

 

[Mitch West]

 

[SD]

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What's it got at 500mb for Noam?

 

[Mitch West]

What's it got at 500mb for Noam?

Noam? Acronym (if it is one) is new to me I guess lol

 

[SD]

Noam? Acronym (if it is one) is new to me I guess lol

Lol I was being lazy. North America

 

[Mitch West]

Haha no worries.

 

[Jan88]

Haha no worries.

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Now to get some energy to round the base of this trough.would b game on for many

 

[SD]

Haha no worries.

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Kind of crazy that's really a positive trend everywhere you'd want to see it

 

[griteater]

Haha no worries.

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Now to get some energy to round the base of this trough.would b game on for many

Get the -NAO to go bonkers and tuck more of this blue up under the block post cutter, and we'd have a shot with a follow-up wave. EPS Snow map here has some light action per this scenario.

Problem is, the pattern overall is going to want to retrograde to the west given falling AAM and MJO progression; a big block could change things though.

 

[RainlessSnowless & Grumpy]

Haha no worries.

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So what's so bad about the 2nd and 3rd week in Jan? Serious question because I haven't looked in days at anything because I figured we could turn the lights out until Jan 20th at least because the trough was going out west for 2 weeks according to most?

 

[Tarheel1]

Always at the end unfortunately…. Still think most January will be toast . February looks lot better with mjo movement

Feb is severe season now.

 

[WSW]

 

[LukeBarrette]

So pretty much here’s the deal and what we want. We want the 1/4 system to become a blizzard as far west as we can get it (New England blizzard would work). This gives us confluence for 1/7 system (probably a mid-atlantic storm only but we will see). Then want the 1/7 to trend stronger and slower so that it can provide confluence for the cutter system that could produce some onset CAD mixed precip. Let the cutter move through give us the cold air and then hope for a follow up wave.

 

[WSW]

So pretty much here’s the deal and what we want. We want the 1/4 system to become a blizzard as far west as we can get it (New England blizzard would work). This gives us confluence for 1/7 system (probably a mid-atlantic storm only but we will see). Then want the 1/7 to trend stronger and slower so that it can provide confluence for the cutter system that could produce some onset CAD mixed precip. Let the cutter move through give us the cold air and then hope for a follow up wave.

Great post!

 

[LukeBarrette]

Great post!

Pretty amazing to see how important 50/50 lows are

 

[Rain Cold]

What a winter