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Pattern Jammin January 2024

SnowNiner said:
Maybe, but I don't think you can completely discount the GEFS argument in regard to the forcing it's showing, and what Fro showed above. It's got a strong pulse going in the Indian Ocean/bad phases that will want to pull the trough out west. EPS has the forcing too, but not as strong so that's likely the difference. Not smart enough to know which one is right, but it's usually the one that has less cold and snow in the SE. lol.

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View attachment 139763
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Yes it is wanting to show strong forcing in the Indian Ocean, which is likely overdone. If the EPS aligns with it that's one thing, but it's not. The EPS has a very low amped almost in the COD MJO.
 
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Myfrotho704_ said:
In my opinion the EPS looks far more like what was being modeled prior to the late jan 2019 cold shot View attachment 139771View attachment 139772
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You can clearly see the split in the jet out west. It's a picture perfect pattern for getting cold into the east and bringing energy across the south. #Verbatim2019™, the heights are compressed and so you don't get wave amplification. In reality, that's not a static image, and I'm sure there will be relaxing and pressing of the height field. A well-timed wave can, well, do well in this environment, should it come to fruition. ?
 
18z euro. Colder and Closer but close doesn’t cut it. Stronger low in the NATL resulted in a closer run. It’s funny because 2-4 degrees colder and we’d be talking a legit ice setup, but he we are, for the millionth time getting stuck at 32-34 around Charlotte. The days since the last legit ice storm continue to grow 01B07D04-505D-4BA4-8826-A579D8FEB613.pngEB154CAD-A91F-409D-B0C4-53DC6C0B39C8.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
18z euro. Colder and Closer but close doesn’t cut it. Stronger low in the NATL resulted in a closer run. It’s funny because 2-4 degrees colder and we’d be talking a legit ice setup, but he we are, for the millionth time getting stuck at 32-34 around Charlotte. The days since the last legit ice storm continue to grow View attachment 139807View attachment 139808
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It's strange how long it's been since any ice storms happened. I personally don't root for ice but a tree topper that keeps the power on is a lot better than miserable cold rain.
 
I already know at worst I’ll have ice in the top of my trees. Will this finally be the first threat where I’m not stuck at 32 and rain with a tree top glaze? Idk but that’ll probably be what ends up happening
 
iGRXY said:
I already know at worst I’ll have ice in the top of my trees. Will this finally be the first threat where I’m not stuck at 32 and rain with a tree top glaze? Idk but that’ll probably be what ends up happening
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Well I think over here in Pickens county we not seeing nothing but a 33° Rain

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Hour 81 shows freezing rain for much of upstate SC, then hour 84 has us above freezing on the NAM. GSP west and north gets about .10 of ice before it warms up. About the same in the Triad of NC
 
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