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Pattern Jammin January 2024

18z ICON is trying to get cute with the first storm over north GA. I hate to extrapolate,(actually I love to do it), but the 18z ICON seems like it would be a paste job for North GA/Upstate SC if it went out another 6-12 hours. Definite crush job for the Mountains would have been incoming.

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It would be nice to see a big event for someone in the east...got to start somewhere. Even if it's JB country...

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View attachment 139370
Would solve a little bit of our snowpack issue
This matches very well with Burrel's ECMWF image from the last page. It would take a lot but then again it wouldn't. Move that 1026 a bit North and make it a 1035 and move that ElPaso low to just off the coast of the other side of TX and we might have something.

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Yeah it's not a terrible look. In situ wedge high gets pushed out in the first frame, with the previous system acting as our 50/50 the frame before.

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We lose the 50/50 and that 1020 is just too weak with the initial cold source too weak as well. That s/w really tries to catch up and thread the needle though. Pretty good timing but we have to find a bit more cold for those outside the mountains.

Here's the crushjob for the mtns.

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Perks is the GFS is beyond bad with CAD wedges so botterline temps like above at this range is eyebrow raising. But again we have to time this thing perfectly. Like I said last night, from a MSLP look it’s a text book 50/50, with stream separation from our S/W sliding east and raised heights over the northeast, but there’s nothing to lock in the cold air as the northern stream is still pretty progressive with no -NAO. Right now we need to slow the 50/50 down and allow our cold air feed to really get in place while also speeding up the S/W and having it strong enough to help tap into the cold air feed. The good news is S/W almost always ends up being quicker but it’s a matter of how much.
 
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