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Pattern Jammin January 2024

Happy Hour GFS has a conga line of cross-polar arctic highs. Now that's not something you'll see every day even on a 384-hour fantasy map.

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Looking at the EPS, this is somewhat uncharted territory for me. The western trough crud presents itself, but then the Atlantic ridge get on roids and reaches out west across canada and traps a big lobe of the TPV underneath it in SE canada, AND a -NAO. That'll work I think. Has that ever really happened before? A full conus trough with the TPV in SE canada?

GEFS however is more of what I'm afraid of, the Atlantic ridge doesn't reach all the way across, the western ridge tucks the western trough nicely on the west coast and freezes Seattle again. And pokes the SE ridge. :mad:

EPS is nice and I hope it happens. But I'm worried GEFS is right, because of course it would be. lol.

eps_z500a_nhem_57.png

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_57.png
 
SnowNiner said:
Looking at the EPS, this is somewhat uncharted territory for me. The western trough crud presents itself, but then the Atlantic ridge get on roids and reaches out west across canada and traps a big lobe of the TPV underneath it in SE canada, AND a -NAO. That'll work I think. Has that ever really happened before? A full conus trough with the TPV in SE canada?

GEFS however is more of what I'm afraid of, the Atlantic ridge doesn't reach all the way across, the western ridge tucks the western trough nicely on the west coast and freezes Seattle again. And pokes the SE ridge. :mad:

EPS is nice and I hope it happens. But I'm worried GEFS is right, because of course it would be. lol.

eps_z500a_nhem_57.png

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_57.png
Click to expand...
I know that there have been a few times that we’ve seen full conus troughs. The set up for the January 1988 storm did as there was a TPV that set up in SE Canada that supplied plenty of cold despite a -PNA, +AO, +NAO. The -AO/-NAO would help more. Honestly, with as active as the STJ has been with energy, I’m not very concerned about the SER flexing, at least for anything more than a couple days. I am glad to see though that the EPS is showing the better set up as opposed to the GEFS.
 
SnowNiner said:
Looking at the EPS, this is somewhat uncharted territory for me. The western trough crud presents itself, but then the Atlantic ridge get on roids and reaches out west across canada and traps a big lobe of the TPV underneath it in SE canada, AND a -NAO. That'll work I think. Has that ever really happened before? A full conus trough with the TPV in SE canada?

GEFS however is more of what I'm afraid of, the Atlantic ridge doesn't reach all the way across, the western ridge tucks the western trough nicely on the west coast and freezes Seattle again. And pokes the SE ridge. :mad:

EPS is nice and I hope it happens. But I'm worried GEFS is right, because of course it would be. lol.

eps_z500a_nhem_57.png

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_57.png
Click to expand...
GEFS stinks
 
SnowNiner said:
Looking at the EPS, this is somewhat uncharted territory for me. The western trough crud presents itself, but then the Atlantic ridge get on roids and reaches out west across canada and traps a big lobe of the TPV underneath it in SE canada, AND a -NAO. That'll work I think. Has that ever really happened before? A full conus trough with the TPV in SE canada?

GEFS however is more of what I'm afraid of, the Atlantic ridge doesn't reach all the way across, the western ridge tucks the western trough nicely on the west coast and freezes Seattle again. And pokes the SE ridge. :mad:

EPS is nice and I hope it happens. But I'm worried GEFS is right, because of course it would be. lol.

eps_z500a_nhem_57.png

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_57.png
Click to expand...
Yeah the GEFS has been playing catchup to the EPS and GEPS with this -NAO episode which I think is going to go pretty big. I just like the way it is forming, first with the ridge over Iceland out ahead of the upcoming winter storm next weekend (ahead of 50/50 low), then supplemented with the ridge over Greenland out ahead of the big Lakes cutter storm. No telling what happens after that. Falling AAM and MJO in P4 would favor more of a trough in the West or West-Central U.S., but strong El Nino would counter that idea.

3AU1j6j.gif
 
Arcc said:
Does it look like a official SSW event will happen again?
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Very low chance that an official SSW will occur here in early Jan, but there will be a noteworthy weakening...and weakening also in the lower stratosphere which will help with -NAO development. I think we'll make another run at an official SSW in early Feb or so
 
CMC is holding on with a legit CAD ice storm still. It’s held strong multiple runs in a row. 1/2” average on the FRAM in prime CAD areas of the upstate also. Really wish this was in the short range models range so I could see if it’s off that Bobby brown Saturday night special or if it’s catching something the Euro (I’ll never look at the GFS to sniff out any CAD potential) isn’t.
 
The 3 big Ops, 12z euro,0z GFS,0Z Can continue in lock step showing low over Texas cut for the lakes 1/9 into 1/10 and start the process of driving down True Cold Canadian Air we all been waiting for, not the pac induced Canadian Air. Amazing agreement. So 1/10 onward its all about when that next wave, energy appears. That will be the meal ticlet for a lot of folks imo. Getting somewhere now.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Not sure when these huge ice storms shown on the models actually verified as bad as they show them.
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You take with grain of salt. Still 6 days out and this setup screams as much cold rain as anything. Very hard needle to thread. Just gives us something to track while waiting on the post Jan 10th cutter to get by us and do its thing.
 
NCSNOW said:
Lets just hope the southern stream keeps shooting us some energy day 10 -20. If so we will all be giddy.
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Yep, all the cold in the world won't help if there is no moisture... ask the south pole, lol. That's why I love a split stream so much. Lots more room for timing, the main ingredient in the deep south. It took like 100k of years to accumulate all that snow, and I don't have that long:)
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Weekend threat is 1-3F away from a legit ZR event for CAD regions in the Piedmont
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Yikes. That is certainly doable. The high pressure has been trending a tick stronger and in a more favorable position over the past 24 hours. Coming in a little faster too. It bears watching for the foothills and super CAD zones.
 
packfan98 said:
Yikes. That is certainly doable. The high pressure has been trending a tick stronger and in a more favorable position over the past 24 hours. Coming in a little faster too. It bears watching for the foothills and super CAD zones.
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Yes and the fact that the EURO solution was so close on temperatures definitely gives you a pause. We’re still at the range that the EURO doesn’t handle the strength of CAD well and is often several degrees two warm.
 
Chazwin said:
Yes and the fact that the EURO solution was so close on temperatures definitely gives you a pause. We’re still at the range that the EURO doesn’t handle the strength of CAD well and is often several degrees two warm.
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NC should be watching this unfold closely.
 
Nomanslandva said:
I am rapidly losing hope here. Looks like I am pulling for the euro solution with the foothills low being the stronger more wrapped up low. I have seen way too many of these end up Lexington north storms though. Also, this thing has turned into a pretty quick hitter at this point.
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All we need is a small shift south or weaker shortwave and we get majority snow. If we are not in NAM range then more changes are still possible. Either way I think we see at least a few inches of snow which we should be very grateful.
 
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