CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Here's the 12z CMC ensemble at 192 hours
Sent from my SM-A136U1 using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-A136U1 using Tapatalk
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern Jammin January 2024
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
iGRXY
Member
Canadian is a cold biased model so yes in the event that it is aligned with other guidance as far as H5, Storm progression, and track then it is a good model to use in the day 3-7 range for temp profiles. GFS is awful with CAD, EURO is in the middle, all models tend to under estimate it. NAM and 3K is good to look at for thermals within the column itself once in range.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Really likes the CAD idea. Seems like the likely solution at this point.Here's the 12z CMC ensemble at 192 hours
Sent from my SM-A136U1 using Tapatalk
The Jan 6-8th setup reminds me of the December 2003 Snow/Ice Event. The Low over NE is certainly weaker, and the ridge over the northern plains is stronger, but the potential for snow in the foothills and some icing north if I-40 isn't a stretch if models persist.
Flotown
Member
just noticed canadian and gfs look almost identical...boy i cant wait for 00 z runs...or can i??lol
Flotown
Member
timing even spot on..almost scary..oh well long shot i know but something to wtch
597DM
Member
Based on...
Tarheelwx
Member
I would argue that not all CADs overperform. In fact I suspect there’s about as many that underperform as overperform. We just love and remember those that underperformed. We remember the underperformers for about a day and move on. An overperformer gets talked about for months or years.
TW
TW
Flotown
Member
definately not counting on it but they look identical as of now
Mountains sitting pretty. Might be one of those winters where there’s snow on the ground for most of the month along the spine. Gonna be some chase opportunity soon.
Parker
Member
Jimmy, I’ve been waiting watching the mid week and weekend system coming up. Looking like a Maggie Valkey, highlands, lake toxaway for now. Watching closely
severestorm
Member
ICON 
iGRXY
Member
ICON was much better vs 12Z. And was setting up for some type of wintry weather.
iGRXY
Member
At least onset. Temps are hovering right at freezing which is fine at this range on the ICON. We were going for a Miller B depending on how long and strong the HP is and can stay in place as the 50/50 was deepening but still sliding off to the NE
severestorm
Member
Yep icon was a messy setup. Probably onset ice/sleet for Piedmont and a more legit storm in the foothills/mountains 
iGRXY
Member
We’re still running into the northern stream being too progressive which is going to have HP placement issues and the overall strength as modeled right now isn’t great either. We don’t need a 1040 but a nice 1030-1035 HP would be more than enough. One positive is we tend to speed our S/W up the closer we get but still
iGRXY
Member
Definitely was going for a Miller B more than likely. You take those surface temps right now at this range with the ICON.
This is gonna become a ice event if we continue to shorter wavelengths like the GFS is doing 
Boy that is close. Real close.