• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Jammin January 2024

ICON has me at 6 hours at or below freezing with close to an inch of precip falling. Even cutting that back 60-75% is pretty moderate to significant icing potential on a model that does tend to have a warm bias and isn’t the best CAD depiction either
 
And i'll add that when models bust too warm on CAD events, it's usually in these type scenario's where we're relying on a stale cold-air mass to not erode away too quickly.

We might not be done playing catch up. The event we had roughly ten years ago was very similar and even the hi-res models verified 4-5 degree's too warm in my backyard just 12 hours before the event started. (Not saying it'll happen this time, just pointing out it's a possibility).
 
iGRXY said:
ICON has me at 6 hours at or below freezing with close to an inch of precip falling. Even cutting that back 60-75% is pretty moderate to significant icing potential on a model that does tend to have a warm bias and isn’t the best CAD depiction either
Click to expand...
It’s actually worse. I’m really at or below freezing 6-9 hours with 1.25” of liquid precip falling. Again even cutting that off by 75% is pretty significant at this range for this model
 
Here's my notes from that storm just to remind everyone that we can get lucky every once in a while!

February 16, 20151 inch of sleet 1/10th inch of icemin temp of 27huge bust in our favor, hi-res models at 31/32 temp and projecting freezing rain to rain as event started, got 90% sleet and just a little freezing rain, wetbulbed to around 27 and temp was still 31 as final band came through
 
Couple of things I’ve noticed is the center of our high is now moving through the mid Atlantic and northeast and it’s slowly but surely been trending stronger. 1030-1032 is what has been modeled as it is over the Northeast. The S/W out west is also moving further and further south. (Globals are notorious for wanting to drive LP into a CAD dome and it isn’t going to happen). Ridging out ahead of the S/W is also weaker a little bit more on tonight’s runs.
 
LukeBarrette said:
View attachment 139829
All of the sudden it’s flatter and more snowier, hmmmm
Click to expand...
Need the trend of it flatter and more south to continue as well as less ridging out ahead. So far that’s been the case on tonight’s runs. You’re also seeing our LP bending around the CAD done vs plowing right through it as the surface low takes over from the ULL the the NW. if we can push it a little further south you’ll see a translation to more ice my way and more snow your way.
 
rburrel2 said:
Here's my notes from that storm just to remind everyone that we can get lucky every once in a while!

February 16, 20151 inch of sleet 1/10th inch of icemin temp of 27huge bust in our favor, hi-res models at 31/32 temp and projecting freezing rain to rain as event started, got 90% sleet and just a little freezing rain, wetbulbed to around 27 and temp was still 31 as final band came through
Click to expand...
nobody ever mentions this storm but this is one of my fav of all time. raleigh was also supposed to get murdered by ZR but it was almost all sleet instead- to the tune of like 3 inches! pretty sure we bottomed out at 19 with it just pouring sleet. my buddies and i were drinking beer under the trailwood overpass on i40 at like 2 am that night and stealing road signs... fond memories of this storm.

but let me also say feb 2015 was historically cold and this pattern... isnt.
 
Here are dewpoints just before the arrival of precip on the GFS if that matters.

sfctd-imp.us_ma.png
 
iGRXY said:
Need the trend of it flatter and more south to continue as well as less ridging out ahead. So far that’s been the case on tonight’s runs. You’re also seeing our LP bending around the CAD done vs plowing right through it as the surface low takes over from the ULL the the NW. if we can push it a little further south you’ll see a translation to more ice my way and more snow your way.
Click to expand...
i feel that if this thing goes even flatter you lose a lot more forcing and qpf. somewhat agree with your second point, the surface reflection may disproportionately shift south against shifts at h5, but don't know if the in-situ cad we're getting is going to cut the mustard to effect LP track that much
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Charlotte is a degree or 2 away on globals from ZR, and northern tiers of CLT are right on the line. All it takes is some last minute adjustments
Click to expand...
If things keep trending the way the are, I imagine our area sees a couple hours of ZR in the morning while the foothills and NW Piedmont might see an all day event. This is honestly kind of scary, though we have a couple saving graces with the lack of snow cover and the fact that rates will get pretty heavy at some point.
 
Southern Track said:
Hate seeing the SE ridge. Have nightmares about that. I was concerned about the verification of the MJO impulse from the GEFS recently. It seems to be doing pretty well.

operdyn_verif8D_full.gif
Click to expand...
We need that TPV to set up shop south of Hudson Bay under the NAO block. If so, it should mute if not overwhelm the MJO if the unfavorable phases don't venture too far outside of the COD for too long before propagating back into 7-8-1. Fingers crossed.
 
Well the RDPS said Nada all along for the 1/3 event for North GA event while the Nam was off its rocker advertising Glory, Nam folded to it. Today the 84 hr Nam is a nada burger at 6z for this weekend advertising cold rain, while the RDPS has several hours of freezing rain for many. Interesting to see if it wipes the mat clean again against the Nam on this event again. My money will be on the RDPS
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
We need that TPV to set up shop south of Hudson Bay under the NAO block. If so, it should mute if not overwhelm the MJO if the unfavorable phases don't venture too far outside of the COD for too long before propagating back into 7-8-1. Fingers crossed.
Click to expand...
Speak of the devil. Something just like this will do.
gfs-ens_z500a_namer_53.png
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Speak of the devil. Something just like this will do.
gfs-ens_z500a_namer_53.png
Click to expand...
Probably a little after that hopefully. The EPS looks like it wants to dump west even at the end but that may be more split flow lowering heights out west. The ridge over Alaska and Greenland with the TPV over the Hudson Bay doesn't scream west coast dump to me. But I guess it's still possible. We always seem to find new ways to screw up so idk
eps_z500a_namer_61.png
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top