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Pattern Jammin January 2024

ForsythSnow said:
Classic solid 18Z NAMming. Either it breaks soon or the other models start to bend in its favor. Tomorrow it'll be within 48 hours as well.
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We should know by tonight’s NAM run if it’s on to something. Interestingly the FFC mentioned in the latest discussion some of the global ensembles are NAM like.
 
jrips27 said:
The ole 5 inch Atlanta bullseye ??View attachment 139685
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Talk about an i85 special. Its doable if there is enough precip..but the nam is several times heavier with precip totals. However even with lighter amounts i think folks will see flakes falling at least. There is very dry air just off the surface through the mid levels which should result in quite a lot of evap cooling. Even though surface temps will be fairly warm initially low wetbulb zero heights flakes shouldn't have much problem reaching the surface from Atlanta to Athens northward...assuming of course there is enough precip to make it through that dry air. Any enhanced band of precip would go over to snow fairly easily imo. Looking at soundings ..areas as far south as I 20 in ga could be cold enough to see flakes..although wetbulb zero heights are marginal there.


Just want to see other models increase overall totals. Nam is a bit north of other models with the surface low so hopefully we will at least see a compromise position.
 
Snowfan said:
We should know by tonight’s NAM run if it’s on to something. Interestingly the FFC mentioned in the latest discussion some of the global ensembles are NAM like.
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I would start paying very close attention to the long range HRRR tonight. It will sniff out FGEN forcing better than any other model
 
Chazwin said:
I would start paying very close attention to the long range HRRR tonight. It will sniff out FGEN forcing better than any other model
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Probably wish casting on my part but it does seem to be picking up some convection on the leading edge of the precip as early as Wed afternoon around Montgomery. As you said, be interesting to see where it goes tonight.

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Chazwin said:
I would start paying very close attention to the long range HRRR tonight. It will sniff out FGEN forcing better than any other model
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The NAM struggled with the January 22 system with the precip shield and FGEN stuff too at this range so this is honestly isn’t surprising. Different setup but same variables
 
iGRXY said:
The NAM struggled with the January 22 system with the precip shield and FGEN stuff too at this range so this is honestly isn’t surprising. Different setup but same variables
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You’re right. Heck the 3kNAM lost the February 2021 system until about 5 hours or so before snow broke out in the Upstate…there were a number of people talking about what a joke the HRRR is, which it definitely has struggles on some stuff, but it’s the best at sniffing out a set up like this.
 
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This is going to be a nightmare of a forecast for DC and for myself. First thoughts for Roanoke is 4-8 inches of snow and sleet. Could be lots of sleet.
 
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