Pattern Jammin January 2024

[Myfrotho704_]

Huge difference here. CMC dug the vortex/TPV way more and was slower, which filtered in a nice cold source. GFS is still just so awful

 

[iGRXY]

GFS probably gonna be to progressive with the northern stream to leave an adequate cold source, but it’s better then before. We could use a CMC like depiction with the northern stream slowing, and digging out ahead

Exactly. Just nothing holding the 50/50 in place to lock in any cold air at the surface. The MSLP map is textbook if we just had some type of cold air feed. But it did move into a much better direction vs last run at the same time frame and at least gives the 18Z GEFS noise a little bit of credence.

 

[iGRXY]

Canadian could’ve been really big if we slow our S/W down to let the cold air feed in faster.

 

[Rain Cold]

Canadian could’ve been really big if we slow our S/W down to let the cold air feed in faster.

I would feel a lot better if the Euro was showing that solution instead of the CMC.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

if there’s one thing to note, it seems as if the southern stream for the first time in a while isn’t the problem. It’s timing the northern stream and getting it to dig, at the right location and time. CMC has higher overall heights around B.C/western Canada which allows the TPV/cold northern stream trough to dig. GFS has a GOAK low, which is no bueno. Looks like we have something to track honestly. But EPS/GEPS support is needed before I say it’s legit

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That run to run change in northwestern Canada was key on the CMC
Unfortunately gefs is looking the opposite as last run

 

[Tarheel1]

Pattern changer and snowpack supplier

 

[iGRXY]

As long as we keep the look of displacing the cold to our side of the continent around mid month, I like where we are heading by January 20th.

 

[iGRXY]

GEFS looks to follow the OP of stream separation and building in a strong 50/50, but again that whole cold air thing likely ends up being an issue yet again.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

CMCE looks better at H5 Vs the GEFS

 

[Tarheel1]

Here she comes….

 

[Myfrotho704_]

CMCE eventually looks awful though. Gefs eventually looks better, but not by much. I’m not a believer on that system quite honestly. We are retrograding to quick imho for something to work

 

[jrips27]

GEFS going the wrong way

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

I wouldn’t be harboring hopes for anything until January 15th and onward… you can see how the long range GFS shows why people are excited for late January pattern and February pattern as we will have tons more cold air on our side of the map with storm systems skirting along the southern periphery… much more cold air around with an active southern jet won’t guarantee you snow but it builds snow pack and makes winter storms or even light winter events much more attainable even down south. I’m excited for the pattern we’re going to get into.

But again that is excitement for late January and February.. not early January .. for the SE at least

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Euro gonna be close

 

[tennessee storm]

Euro gonna be close View attachment 139324

Always close lol. Yeah far away …. Got about two more weeks than maybe things will go in our favor

 

[metfascination]

Arriving in Jasper Georgia for work this morning to snow flurries - 36 degrees


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[Mitch West]

 

[NoSnowATL]

 

[NCSNOW]

Last nights euro is lock step with Canadian. East TN, NC and Va Mountain snow mix with decent shot backside flake. Storm 2 right on its heels gets mix down in piedmont NC, Just like Canadian, except it had snow. Yall cant wait for the holy grail pattern, slam dunk storm to show up late Jan into Feb. But we got 2 close (not guranteed) shots coming up in the day 5 to 9 range.