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Pattern Jammin January 2024

SimeonNC said:
Has the 0z NAM started rolling yet?(Am en route to a party rn so can't check)
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namconus_ref_frzn_us_48.png
 
iGRXY said:
CAA cut the shield off. We’ll see where it goes
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Yeah this a case where you want the WAA to be strong enough to provide the forcing. Even still the soundings across the Upstate and over to CLT metro are still very close.
 
Chazwin said:
Yeah this a case where you want the WAA to be strong enough to provide the forcing. Even still the soundings across the Upstate and over to CLT metro are still very close.
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Yeah that was literally just a case of CAA winning out and eating up the precip shield. Can’t get dynamic cooling without the moisture or WAA driving it.
 
Chazwin said:
If the set up actually occurs, something like the February 2021 event would be on the table. January 2022 had an entrenched dry and cold airmass in place with temps in the low to mid 30s and dewpoints in the lower teens. This would be a very marginal set up where it would be relying 100% on dynamic cooling to crash the column.
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The HRRR and Burell both nailed that one. He was on top of that one for several days and brought it home!
 
Also, should add Ukie really likes Tennessee, N. Miss, and Ark for the weekend storm this run FWIW.
 

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Weatherlover92 said:
This feels like it was one step away from being a decent run for N GA/Carolinas.
View attachment 139622
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In the sweet spot for NW trend and Frontogenesis that Globals have hard time measuring. The precip bleeds and expands northward moreso. All models are showinf a little bit of something at this point mid week but HRRR/RAP/NAM will be big in showing just how expansive it could be.
 
Euro had too much to drink tonight! Look at this bomb and squall line! Tennesseestorm gonna buy pants tomorrow! ??DD0C1A50-79F7-4291-8AE9-4D35AA1E5B18.png
 
jeremyt said:
Concord and Mount Pleasant wouldn’t surprise me at all. They always seem cooler and snowy while Union County gets the shaft! ?
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This is an I40 south with the sweet spot probably somewhere along I85 and Highway 74 type event because you need a good combo of WWA and CAA to drive the precip. Got to be in the cold air sector with just enough WAA and not have too much of either.
 
Billypg70 said:
He's been very good at reading the modeling since I began to follow him,
He's always positive.

Another one that when he talks I pay attention.
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Thanks for the kind words. I am definitely always looking on the bright side of things, lol.

I'm loving the overnight trends for the Wednesday system. As long as we can trend this thing to .25-.50 of liquid we could see a nice burst of snow. Still too early to know if the boundary layer will become an issue or not. The NAM seems to think it won't be much of an issue.
 
rburrel2 said:
Euro has trended towards a classical CAD look for the weekend system. Verbatim it's has significant ice along the escarpment, but I'd assume it's a couple degree's too warm at the surface if we get a look like this.View attachment 139629
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Long term gsp added freezing rain for my local overnight on Saturday with a low of 33.


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Even the 06z GFS has some escarpment ice in spite of a 988mb primary low in Northern Alabama.

One thing I would bet the house on; there won't be a sub 990mb low in North Alabama. I'd guess the GFS will calm down and fall in line with other guidance today.
 
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