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Pattern Jammin January 2024

Rain Cold said:
47. And what ensures the snow pack stays in place once it is finally laid down? Chasing Midwestern snow cover for 2 months only to have the mjo or some other index send a ridge through the country deleting all of it doesn't seem like such a long shot to me. I mean, if there's some reason to expect the high likelihood of snow cover remaining in place from VA to TN to AR and north once it finally shows up, then let's go.
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This isn’t going to be a popular opinion but with the way winters have gone around here recently we really are in a more every man for himself type of winter climate these days. That’s why this talk of wasting 3 weeks of winter to lay snowpack down in the Midwest and west does nothing for me. That helps those in the western areas and theoretically it would help us too but that’s if you get a traditional board wide cold and storm scenario. To me our best chance east of the apps is the CAD dome and getting either a traditional miller B or overrunning event. Eastern Canada has actually been doing well this winter and all it takes is letting one nor’easter to lay down fresh snow pack over the northeast with trailing shortwaves or a stalled front right behind it for us to cash in this way.
That’s not the popular opinion because we all want a classic Texas to northeast monster snowstorm but that hasn’t happened in years now. Things we have going for us is a -PNA/-NAO combo which favors millers B’s, the coldest air on earth appears to be moving to our side of the planet and instead of dislodging it into the US we could get it in central and eastern Canada and get ourselves a nice CAD dome over very cold airmass with an active southern jet.
 
iGRXY said:
This isn’t going to be a popular opinion but with the way winters have gone around here recently we really are in a more every man for himself type of winter climate these days. That’s why this talk of wasting 3 weeks of winter to lay snowpack down in the Midwest and west does nothing for me. That helps those in the western areas and theoretically it would help us too but that’s if you get a traditional board wide cold and storm scenario. To me our best chance east of the apps is the CAD dome and getting either a traditional miller B or overrunning event. Eastern Canada has actually been doing well this winter and all it takes is letting one nor’easter to lay down fresh snow pack over the northeast with trailing shortwaves or a stalled front right behind it for us to cash in this way.
That’s not the popular opinion because we all want a classic Texas to northeast monster snowstorm but that hasn’t happened in years now. Things we have going for us is a -PNA/-NAO combo which favors millers B’s, the coldest air on earth appears to be moving to our side of the planet and instead of dislodging it into the US we could get it in central and eastern Canada and get ourselves a nice CAD dome over very cold airmass with an active southern jet.
Click to expand...
Snow is a combat sport. It's definitely an imby game.
 
MB22 said:
Snow is a combat sport. It's definitely an imby game.
Click to expand...
It’s survival of the fittest these days. 2020-2021 the western south got the goods with arctic fronts stalling at the apps and places like Texas, Tennessee, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, and far western Georgia cashed in on a couple big events. January 22 saw a traditional miller B/deep CAD drive a big front end driven snow and ice storm for everyone east of the apps. Granted these were La Niña winters but to me ENSO state doesn’t matter because it’ll be survival of the fittest every winter.
 
Euro at hour 168 is a great look for areas west of Georgia into middle Tennessee
261c754b9636c1396a2a2977dece53b5.jpg



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iGRXY said:
This isn’t going to be a popular opinion but with the way winters have gone around here recently we really are in a more every man for himself type of winter climate these days. That’s why this talk of wasting 3 weeks of winter to lay snowpack down in the Midwest and west does nothing for me. That helps those in the western areas and theoretically it would help us too but that’s if you get a traditional board wide cold and storm scenario. To me our best chance east of the apps is the CAD dome and getting either a traditional miller B or overrunning event. Eastern Canada has actually been doing well this winter and all it takes is letting one nor’easter to lay down fresh snow pack over the northeast with trailing shortwaves or a stalled front right behind it for us to cash in this way.
That’s not the popular opinion because we all want a classic Texas to northeast monster snowstorm but that hasn’t happened in years now. Things we have going for us is a -PNA/-NAO combo which favors millers B’s, the coldest air on earth appears to be moving to our side of the planet and instead of dislodging it into the US we could get it in central and eastern Canada and get ourselves a nice CAD dome over very cold airmass with an active southern jet.
Click to expand...
I don't care whether there's snow pack to the northwest or not, tbh. I mean, it's more of a + than a - for sure, but we've had many snowstorms in the southeast where there wasn't abundant antecedent snow cover to the northwest. What we actually need is legitimate cold air up in Canada. Not above normal anomaly Canada cold, but legitimate cold air. And we need a high pressure to drop down and feed it in. Above normal (for their area) chilly air to our northwest isn't the best way to snow here. And it's not the best way to keep a snowpack around in the Midwest either.

Our climate is warming. We all know this. Average temps are going up. We have more above normal winters (temp-wise) than below. Snowfall averages are dropping. Now, you can make the argument that, well, a few decades back in the mid-1900s exaggerated our averages, and that's fine. But a warming climate is absolutely NOT conducive to more and/or easier snow here.

What is also happening (which is the reason our winters have been warmer here) is that something about the climate cycle we're in now is creating more of a propensity for a mixture of western troughing and a strong Pac jet. Whatever state ENSO is in, we seem to end up with bad MJO, PNA, and NAO phases throughout the winter. The strat never helps either.

Maybe we're just going through a few bad luck years. I mean Shane posted a snow graphic the other day going back to 1800 BC or something, and it showed clusters of good and bad winters, so maybe we're good. But I know we all follow this stuff every year and almost without exception, we have to punt December and then January and then hope for a good February (and by the way, late February into March is pretty much game over for most of the Southeast - it didn't used to be, but it almost always is now). We can't be in a strong El Nino every year. So there must be a reason for this (and I think we did have a pretty cold December last year). We see the NAO stay neutral or positive. We see the PNA stay negative. We see the MJO spending 80% of the winter in 3-6. Why is that? Something is driving this. Until whatever it is changes, I don't see how we can expect anything different than above normal temps in the winter, on average. Maybe we get an anomalous exception to this once every 5-10 years, but it definitely would be an exception.

Anyway, all it takes is one well-timed event to hit the average. I don't think anybody should give up on that possibility at this point. And historically speaking (whether you can go by historical norms or not in today's climate is a topic for another time), El Ninos offer the highest probabilities for snowfall here. But until we see legitimate cold actually showing up in Canada, followed by a mechanism to drive it into the Southeast, it's really hard to be enthusiastic about winter storm chances outside of a narrow area. I think we'll have a shot, regardless of snow cover. But we need to see the cold start showing up first. Otherwise, we're talking about a very, very tiny eye of the needle to thread.

There are and always will be exceptions to every rule. As good as we are at research and getting masters degrees and all of that, there is a lot more about the weather and climate that we don't understand than what we do understand. So, we will hope for the best and hope that the next series of better winters are either upon us or just around the corner, and we will try and continue to learn something along the way and resist the temptation to jump off the cliff just because a variable or two isn't in our favor right this moment.
 
Rain Cold said:
I don't care whether there's snow pack to the northwest or not, tbh. I mean, it's more of a + than a - for sure, but we've had many snowstorms in the southeast where there wasn't abundant antecedent snow cover to the northwest. What we actually need is legitimate cold air up in Canada. Not above normal anomaly Canada cold, but legitimate cold air. And we need a high pressure to drop down and feed it in. Above normal (for their area) chilly air to our northwest isn't the best way to snow here. And it's not the best way to keep a snowpack around in the Midwest either.

Our climate is warming. We all know this. Average temps are going up. We have more above normal winters (temp-wise) than below. Snowfall averages are dropping. Now, you can make the argument that, well, a few decades back in the mid-1900s exaggerated our averages, and that's fine. But a warming climate is absolutely NOT conducive to more and/or easier snow here.

What is also happening (which is the reason our winters have been warmer here) is that something about the climate cycle we're in now is creating more of a propensity for a mixture of western troughing and a strong Pac jet. Whatever state ENSO is in, we seem to end up with bad MJO, PNA, and NAO phases throughout the winter. The strat never helps either.

Maybe we're just going through a few bad luck years. I mean Shane posted a snow graphic the other day going back to 1800 BC or something, and it showed clusters of good and bad winters, so maybe we're good. But I know we all follow this stuff every year and almost without exception, we have to punt December and then January and then hope for a good February (and by the way, late February into March is pretty much game over for most of the Southeast - it didn't used to be, but it almost always is now). We can't be in a strong El Nino every year. So there must be a reason for this (and I think we did have a pretty cold December last year). We see the NAO stay neutral or positive. We see the PNA stay negative. We see the MJO spending 80% of the winter in 3-6. Why is that? Something is driving this. Until whatever it is changes, I don't see how we can expect anything different than above normal temps in the winter, on average. Maybe we get an anomalous exception to this once every 5-10 years, but it definitely would be an exception.

Anyway, all it takes is one well-timed event to hit the average. I don't think anybody should give up on that possibility at this point. And historically speaking (whether you can go by historical norms or not in today's climate is a topic for another time), El Ninos offer the highest probabilities for snowfall here. But until we see legitimate cold actually showing up in Canada, followed by a mechanism to drive it into the Southeast, it's really hard to be enthusiastic about winter storm changes outside of a narrow area. I think we'll have a shot, regardless of snow cover. But we need to see the cold start showing up first. Otherwise, we're talking about a very, very tiny eye of the needle to thread.

There are and always will be exceptions to every rule. As good as we are at research and getting masters degrees and all of that, there is a lot more about the weather and climate that we don't understand than what we do understand. So, we will hope for the best and hope that the next series of better winters are either upon us or just around the corner, and we will try and continue to learn something along the way and resist the temptation to jump off the cliff just because a variable or two isn't in our favor right this moment.
Click to expand...
Fantastic post.
 
Rain Cold said:
47. And what ensures the snow pack stays in place once it is finally laid down? Chasing Midwestern snow cover for 2 months only to have the mjo or some other index send a ridge through the country deleting all of it doesn't seem like such a long shot to me. I mean, if there's some reason to expect the high likelihood of snow cover remaining in place from VA to TN to AR and north once it finally shows up, then let's go.
Click to expand...
2 words: Pattern Change
Once my snowpack gets laid down, the SSW will have kicked in, and I’ll have 2-3 weeks below normal temps, with clippers laying down even more snowpack. That will let the colder air get into the SE without modifying.it’s a self - sustaining freezer pattern, the last 2 weeks of January-First week of February
 
Rain Cold said:
I don't care whether there's snow pack to the northwest or not, tbh. I mean, it's more of a + than a - for sure, but we've had many snowstorms in the southeast where there wasn't abundant antecedent snow cover to the northwest. What we actually need is legitimate cold air up in Canada. Not above normal anomaly Canada cold, but legitimate cold air. And we need a high pressure to drop down and feed it in. Above normal (for their area) chilly air to our northwest isn't the best way to snow here. And it's not the best way to keep a snowpack around in the Midwest either.

Our climate is warming. We all know this. Average temps are going up. We have more above normal winters (temp-wise) than below. Snowfall averages are dropping. Now, you can make the argument that, well, a few decades back in the mid-1900s exaggerated our averages, and that's fine. But a warming climate is absolutely NOT conducive to more and/or easier snow here.

What is also happening (which is the reason our winters have been warmer here) is that something about the climate cycle we're in now is creating more of a propensity for a mixture of western troughing and a strong Pac jet. Whatever state ENSO is in, we seem to end up with bad MJO, PNA, and NAO phases throughout the winter. The strat never helps either.

Maybe we're just going through a few bad luck years. I mean Shane posted a snow graphic the other day going back to 1800 BC or something, and it showed clusters of good and bad winters, so maybe we're good. But I know we all follow this stuff every year and almost without exception, we have to punt December and then January and then hope for a good February (and by the way, late February into March is pretty much game over for most of the Southeast - it didn't used to be, but it almost always is now). We can't be in a strong El Nino every year. So there must be a reason for this (and I think we did have a pretty cold December last year). We see the NAO stay neutral or positive. We see the PNA stay negative. We see the MJO spending 80% of the winter in 3-6. Why is that? Something is driving this. Until whatever it is changes, I don't see how we can expect anything different than above normal temps in the winter, on average. Maybe we get an anomalous exception to this once every 5-10 years, but it definitely would be an exception.

Anyway, all it takes is one well-timed event to hit the average. I don't think anybody should give up on that possibility at this point. And historically speaking (whether you can go by historical norms or not in today's climate is a topic for another time), El Ninos offer the highest probabilities for snowfall here. But until we see legitimate cold actually showing up in Canada, followed by a mechanism to drive it into the Southeast, it's really hard to be enthusiastic about winter storm changes outside of a narrow area. I think we'll have a shot, regardless of snow cover. But we need to see the cold start showing up first. Otherwise, we're talking about a very, very tiny eye of the needle to thread.

There are and always will be exceptions to every rule. As good as we are at research and getting masters degrees and all of that, there is a lot more about the weather and climate that we don't understand than what we do understand. So, we will hope for the best and hope that the next series of better winters are either upon us or just around the corner, and we will try and continue to learn something along the way and resist the temptation to jump off the cliff just because a variable or two isn't in our favor right this moment.
Click to expand...
Maybe the best post I've seen all year. Excellent.
 
Rain Cold said:
I don't care whether there's snow pack to the northwest or not, tbh. I mean, it's more of a + than a - for sure, but we've had many snowstorms in the southeast where there wasn't abundant antecedent snow cover to the northwest. What we actually need is legitimate cold air up in Canada. Not above normal anomaly Canada cold, but legitimate cold air. And we need a high pressure to drop down and feed it in. Above normal (for their area) chilly air to our northwest isn't the best way to snow here. And it's not the best way to keep a snowpack around in the Midwest either.

Our climate is warming. We all know this. Average temps are going up. We have more above normal winters (temp-wise) than below. Snowfall averages are dropping. Now, you can make the argument that, well, a few decades back in the mid-1900s exaggerated our averages, and that's fine. But a warming climate is absolutely NOT conducive to more and/or easier snow here.

What is also happening (which is the reason our winters have been warmer here) is that something about the climate cycle we're in now is creating more of a propensity for a mixture of western troughing and a strong Pac jet. Whatever state ENSO is in, we seem to end up with bad MJO, PNA, and NAO phases throughout the winter. The strat never helps either.

Maybe we're just going through a few bad luck years. I mean Shane posted a snow graphic the other day going back to 1800 BC or something, and it showed clusters of good and bad winters, so maybe we're good. But I know we all follow this stuff every year and almost without exception, we have to punt December and then January and then hope for a good February (and by the way, late February into March is pretty much game over for most of the Southeast - it didn't used to be, but it almost always is now). We can't be in a strong El Nino every year. So there must be a reason for this (and I think we did have a pretty cold December last year). We see the NAO stay neutral or positive. We see the PNA stay negative. We see the MJO spending 80% of the winter in 3-6. Why is that? Something is driving this. Until whatever it is changes, I don't see how we can expect anything different than above normal temps in the winter, on average. Maybe we get an anomalous exception to this once every 5-10 years, but it definitely would be an exception.

Anyway, all it takes is one well-timed event to hit the average. I don't think anybody should give up on that possibility at this point. And historically speaking (whether you can go by historical norms or not in today's climate is a topic for another time), El Ninos offer the highest probabilities for snowfall here. But until we see legitimate cold actually showing up in Canada, followed by a mechanism to drive it into the Southeast, it's really hard to be enthusiastic about winter storm chances outside of a narrow area. I think we'll have a shot, regardless of snow cover. But we need to see the cold start showing up first. Otherwise, we're talking about a very, very tiny eye of the needle to thread.

There are and always will be exceptions to every rule. As good as we are at research and getting masters degrees and all of that, there is a lot more about the weather and climate that we don't understand than what we do understand. So, we will hope for the best and hope that the next series of better winters are either upon us or just around the corner, and we will try and continue to learn something along the way and resist the temptation to jump off the cliff just because a variable or two isn't in our favor right this moment.
Click to expand...
Ever since Hulk Hogan decided to turn Heel, our snow days have been Fubar'd. I blame the NWO and the Wolfpack!!! Tremendous post, BTW.
 
Rain Cold said:
I don't care whether there's snow pack to the northwest or not, tbh. I mean, it's more of a + than a - for sure, but we've had many snowstorms in the southeast where there wasn't abundant antecedent snow cover to the northwest. What we actually need is legitimate cold air up in Canada. Not above normal anomaly Canada cold, but legitimate cold air. And we need a high pressure to drop down and feed it in. Above normal (for their area) chilly air to our northwest isn't the best way to snow here. And it's not the best way to keep a snowpack around in the Midwest either.

Our climate is warming. We all know this. Average temps are going up. We have more above normal winters (temp-wise) than below. Snowfall averages are dropping. Now, you can make the argument that, well, a few decades back in the mid-1900s exaggerated our averages, and that's fine. But a warming climate is absolutely NOT conducive to more and/or easier snow here.

What is also happening (which is the reason our winters have been warmer here) is that something about the climate cycle we're in now is creating more of a propensity for a mixture of western troughing and a strong Pac jet. Whatever state ENSO is in, we seem to end up with bad MJO, PNA, and NAO phases throughout the winter. The strat never helps either.

Maybe we're just going through a few bad luck years. I mean Shane posted a snow graphic the other day going back to 1800 BC or something, and it showed clusters of good and bad winters, so maybe we're good. But I know we all follow this stuff every year and almost without exception, we have to punt December and then January and then hope for a good February (and by the way, late February into March is pretty much game over for most of the Southeast - it didn't used to be, but it almost always is now). We can't be in a strong El Nino every year. So there must be a reason for this (and I think we did have a pretty cold December last year). We see the NAO stay neutral or positive. We see the PNA stay negative. We see the MJO spending 80% of the winter in 3-6. Why is that? Something is driving this. Until whatever it is changes, I don't see how we can expect anything different than above normal temps in the winter, on average. Maybe we get an anomalous exception to this once every 5-10 years, but it definitely would be an exception.

Anyway, all it takes is one well-timed event to hit the average. I don't think anybody should give up on that possibility at this point. And historically speaking (whether you can go by historical norms or not in today's climate is a topic for another time), El Ninos offer the highest probabilities for snowfall here. But until we see legitimate cold actually showing up in Canada, followed by a mechanism to drive it into the Southeast, it's really hard to be enthusiastic about winter storm chances outside of a narrow area. I think we'll have a shot, regardless of snow cover. But we need to see the cold start showing up first. Otherwise, we're talking about a very, very tiny eye of the needle to thread.

There are and always will be exceptions to every rule. As good as we are at research and getting masters degrees and all of that, there is a lot more about the weather and climate that we don't understand than what we do understand. So, we will hope for the best and hope that the next series of better winters are either upon us or just around the corner, and we will try and continue to learn something along the way and resist the temptation to jump off the cliff just because a variable or two isn't in our favor right this moment.
Click to expand...

Nicely said man. Agree 100%.
 
Rain Cold said:
We see the PNA stay negative. We see the MJO spending 80% of the winter in 3-6. Why is that? Something is driving this. Until whatever it is changes, I don't see how we can expect anything different than above normal temps in the winter, on average. Maybe we get an anomalous exception to this once every 5-10 years, but it definitely would be an exception.
Click to expand...
To your point, I've spent 1 to 3 weeks in Colorado during the winter every year since 2016, sans the year my mom was battling cancer. Listening to the local radio there, I always hear how great the snow has been that season, but its almost every year I've been there recently.

Case in point, Aspens average annual snowfall is 170", here is the past five years for them, the same five years its been horrible in the east.
Three years over 200", mean 13" above the 30 year average.


1703801078920.png
 
Rain Cold said:
I don't care whether there's snow pack to the northwest or not, tbh. I mean, it's more of a + than a - for sure, but we've had many snowstorms in the southeast where there wasn't abundant antecedent snow cover to the northwest. What we actually need is legitimate cold air up in Canada. Not above normal anomaly Canada cold, but legitimate cold air. And we need a high pressure to drop down and feed it in. Above normal (for their area) chilly air to our northwest isn't the best way to snow here. And it's not the best way to keep a snowpack around in the Midwest either.

Our climate is warming. We all know this. Average temps are going up. We have more above normal winters (temp-wise) than below. Snowfall averages are dropping. Now, you can make the argument that, well, a few decades back in the mid-1900s exaggerated our averages, and that's fine. But a warming climate is absolutely NOT conducive to more and/or easier snow here.

What is also happening (which is the reason our winters have been warmer here) is that something about the climate cycle we're in now is creating more of a propensity for a mixture of western troughing and a strong Pac jet. Whatever state ENSO is in, we seem to end up with bad MJO, PNA, and NAO phases throughout the winter. The strat never helps either.

Maybe we're just going through a few bad luck years. I mean Shane posted a snow graphic the other day going back to 1800 BC or something, and it showed clusters of good and bad winters, so maybe we're good. But I know we all follow this stuff every year and almost without exception, we have to punt December and then January and then hope for a good February (and by the way, late February into March is pretty much game over for most of the Southeast - it didn't used to be, but it almost always is now). We can't be in a strong El Nino every year. So there must be a reason for this (and I think we did have a pretty cold December last year). We see the NAO stay neutral or positive. We see the PNA stay negative. We see the MJO spending 80% of the winter in 3-6. Why is that? Something is driving this. Until whatever it is changes, I don't see how we can expect anything different than above normal temps in the winter, on average. Maybe we get an anomalous exception to this once every 5-10 years, but it definitely would be an exception.

Anyway, all it takes is one well-timed event to hit the average. I don't think anybody should give up on that possibility at this point. And historically speaking (whether you can go by historical norms or not in today's climate is a topic for another time), El Ninos offer the highest probabilities for snowfall here. But until we see legitimate cold actually showing up in Canada, followed by a mechanism to drive it into the Southeast, it's really hard to be enthusiastic about winter storm chances outside of a narrow area. I think we'll have a shot, regardless of snow cover. But we need to see the cold start showing up first. Otherwise, we're talking about a very, very tiny eye of the needle to thread.

There are and always will be exceptions to every rule. As good as we are at research and getting masters degrees and all of that, there is a lot more about the weather and climate that we don't understand than what we do understand. So, we will hope for the best and hope that the next series of better winters are either upon us or just around the corner, and we will try and continue to learn something along the way and resist the temptation to jump off the cliff just because a variable or two isn't in our favor right this moment.
Click to expand...

Used to see -30s F temps all the time up in Canada and even in the far northern plains. Not anymore.


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BHS1975 said:
Used to see -30s F temps all the time up in Canada and even in the far northern plains. Not anymore.


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Click to expand...
I remember seeing that a lot back in the day. To be fair, the sample size of my seeing those temps shows up is miniscule compared to years that I wasn't paying attention or wasn't alive. So it's anecdotal in the end, but it feels right, when put in context of everything else I see going on now.
 
Rain Cold said:
I don't care whether there's snow pack to the northwest or not, tbh. I mean, it's more of a + than a - for sure, but we've had many snowstorms in the southeast where there wasn't abundant antecedent snow cover to the northwest. What we actually need is legitimate cold air up in Canada. Not above normal anomaly Canada cold, but legitimate cold air. And we need a high pressure to drop down and feed it in. Above normal (for their area) chilly air to our northwest isn't the best way to snow here. And it's not the best way to keep a snowpack around in the Midwest either.

Our climate is warming. We all know this. Average temps are going up. We have more above normal winters (temp-wise) than below. Snowfall averages are dropping. Now, you can make the argument that, well, a few decades back in the mid-1900s exaggerated our averages, and that's fine. But a warming climate is absolutely NOT conducive to more and/or easier snow here.

What is also happening (which is the reason our winters have been warmer here) is that something about the climate cycle we're in now is creating more of a propensity for a mixture of western troughing and a strong Pac jet. Whatever state ENSO is in, we seem to end up with bad MJO, PNA, and NAO phases throughout the winter. The strat never helps either.

Maybe we're just going through a few bad luck years. I mean Shane posted a snow graphic the other day going back to 1800 BC or something, and it showed clusters of good and bad winters, so maybe we're good. But I know we all follow this stuff every year and almost without exception, we have to punt December and then January and then hope for a good February (and by the way, late February into March is pretty much game over for most of the Southeast - it didn't used to be, but it almost always is now). We can't be in a strong El Nino every year. So there must be a reason for this (and I think we did have a pretty cold December last year). We see the NAO stay neutral or positive. We see the PNA stay negative. We see the MJO spending 80% of the winter in 3-6. Why is that? Something is driving this. Until whatever it is changes, I don't see how we can expect anything different than above normal temps in the winter, on average. Maybe we get an anomalous exception to this once every 5-10 years, but it definitely would be an exception.

Anyway, all it takes is one well-timed event to hit the average. I don't think anybody should give up on that possibility at this point. And historically speaking (whether you can go by historical norms or not in today's climate is a topic for another time), El Ninos offer the highest probabilities for snowfall here. But until we see legitimate cold actually showing up in Canada, followed by a mechanism to drive it into the Southeast, it's really hard to be enthusiastic about winter storm chances outside of a narrow area. I think we'll have a shot, regardless of snow cover. But we need to see the cold start showing up first. Otherwise, we're talking about a very, very tiny eye of the needle to thread.

There are and always will be exceptions to every rule. As good as we are at research and getting masters degrees and all of that, there is a lot more about the weather and climate that we don't understand than what we do understand. So, we will hope for the best and hope that the next series of better winters are either upon us or just around the corner, and we will try and continue to learn something along the way and resist the temptation to jump off the cliff just because a variable or two isn't in our favor right this moment.
Click to expand...
Ding ding ding. That’s why this talk of wasting 3 weeks of peak climo (yes January is peak climo with coldest averages) to lay snow pack and cold down to our west that can easily go away as soon as you get a big jet extension and flood the continent with pacific air is a waste to me. Our best bet in our neck of the woods and getting the cold air to our side of the globe (looks like we are doing that mid month) and pushing the lobe of cold air over central and eastern Canada or getting the TPV situated closer to the US border and getting some type of CAD event. While we can get that old school board wide event, like you said above, those days seem fewer and fewer so everybody should root for the whatever gets your backyard the best shot at winter weather.
 
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