Southern stream on the euro is ass. Goodnight fellers
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Pattern Jammin January 2024
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Midwest as expected, about to cash in.
rburrel2
Member
Wednesday threat is looking better for North GA. Boundary layer is going to be a problem, but maybe you guys at least get to see some flakes fly.
Brent
Member
Several EPS members over 10 inches here ?
rburrel2
Member
3-4 inches over a two week period in mid-january is cashing in? Looks like New England and SE Canada are the ones about to cash in.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Ensemble means are heavily damped w/ range. Reality will be much higher than this.
rburrel2
Member
Seems like all the Ensemble's are gung-ho on a retrograding Greenland block in the long range. Maybe that'll be enough to at least keep us in the game for a chance or two in mid-January even with the Pacific screwed up.
WEATHERBOYROY
Member
Just waiting for the 12z models, but the last 24hr, the trend for the surface and 850 temps, the LP strength and placement, and precip for
N MISS, N AL, AND N GA ON GFS, CMC, NAM, and RGEM looking better!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Slowly but surely, we're getting there.
tennessee storm
Member
Baby steps….. still some progress. Key will be the mjo heading towards a better phase by months end for the eastern part country
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It'll get there.
W
WSW
Guest
lexxnchloe
Member
I just we get there before March, lol
W
WSW
Guest
As usual, head on up to Avery county if you don’t want to get shut out this winter. They get smoked during niños. Also I think the medium range model runs are doing that classic thing where they want to suck you in on marginal setups because the little blue and pink hues seem close by. Last weeks soaker of a rainstorm is telling me it’s gonna be one of those tough juiced up winters. Maybe we can luck into an overrunning monster of a snowstorm later on. It’s happened before and it’ll happen again. Big dog “potential” is always higher during these types of winters.
W
WSW
Guest
I think all of the higher country from WV south do well.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
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2017-2023 Supporter
First look at 1/4 system from NAM
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i think one of the best ways we could score before we shake the pattern up was depicted by the control last night.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Wouldn’t sleep on this
The EPS has 16/50 members with something for the early system that the nam is showing above. Maybe a sneaky threat here? That NAM above has temps in mid 30s. Let’s see if we can get some more support.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
GFS is going to be a cutter by the time we get to the 1/7 system. These trends are not good
That system was going to need a ton of work to work out for the upper Southeast anyways. Just don’t think that’s our storm.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
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2017-2023 Supporter
Canadian jogged north
tennessee storm
Member
The system after that going be a strong cutter , that will have some severe weather on the se side the second system
I thought El Niño was known for the jet stream being lower and producing gulf low after gulf low. What’s up with the cutters.
tennessee storm
Member
There is absolutely no blocking what so ever as of now
tennessee storm
Member
This winter has to much influence from the pacific jet… it’s killing our chance to get any real cold air down to stay
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There are rather large differences in real weather at 144 hours between the GFS, GEM and UKIE. Even the GEFS is all over the place with different solutions. I bet some good rains are coming for my area, though. I need more rain so that is good.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Wow, lots of possibilities at this timeframe
W
WSW
Guest
tennessee storm
Member
Yeah if you like a good cool rain … unfortunately
rburrel2
Member
GFS is on an island with the bombing cutter. Right now every other model has sped up timing a little bit and it's looking like front end icing is a real a possibility Saturday morning.
CMC/Ukmet/ICON all get precip in to GA/SC early Saturday morning and temps/dews are roughly 32/22 at onset.
GEFS is showing this as well with 5-6 members.
CMC/Ukmet/ICON all get precip in to GA/SC early Saturday morning and temps/dews are roughly 32/22 at onset.
GEFS is showing this as well with 5-6 members.
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Looks a lot like the euro control run we had overnight, just not quite as good of a cold press. That’s how we score before mid/late month.
tennessee storm
Member
Euro has booming cutter also though just getting in range of it
tennessee storm
Member
Anyone putting any stock into a cmc model far out don’t trust it, always cold bias also
rburrel2
Member
It was definitely more amped than most guidance last night. Todays run should give a good indication where we're headed.
Only after late January into early February after snowpack2023.
Euro control tucked a bunch of blue stuff up under a strong block. That's the move we need to see post cutter
When the jet is running from Cabo to Bangor cutter printer go brrr