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Pattern Jammin January 2024

CaryWx said:
Really enjoy your podcasts Mitch. Quick question.

Like the precip ens means can these larger feature ens means be skewed by just a few members as well?
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The biggest issue I've seen on the means is a tendency to over spread anomalies as you get further out in time. I'm a big believer in using the plumes if you are looking for a point forecast vs the mean since you can find any clustering or see if a group is skewing the mean. When it goes to the continental or hemispheric scale its hard for a few outliers to skew the mean as a whole but you start to run into spreading of anomalies or washing things out. Remember back earlier this month the means were pretty toasty in that day 7-10 range but we averaged near average mid month
 
mydoortotheworld said:
I hate to be that guy, and I’m not saying for certain this is directly correlated, someone with a much better understanding (and degreed) in this field can correct me, but this barren of snow cover over the eastern seaboard feels unsurprising given how anomalously warm 2023 has been, as well as the record Atlantic temps
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It's both surprising and unsurprising. It fits the narrative of the year but still, I mean good lord is it ever going to snow again. Everybody is hurting. Staring down January and I think I've only seen winter storm warnings for like, northern Vermont.
lexxnchloe said:
If only there was just a little cold air around. Perfect track, strong low, north winds and rain in January.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png
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Usually the "all rain with thicknesses under 534 decameters" is a look reserved for mid April. If this verified verbatim I think there would likely be some snow mixing in heavier precip pockets but nothing stickin. Rough look for this time of year. This changes if the wave sharpens and there's more of a bona fide cut off but given our history I would imagine this wave flattens in future runs.
NickyBGuarantee said:
I think the pattern in January is not perfect but it’s one that can certainly squeeze something out if you get all the right variables working out.

I don’t think you NEED snow pack to the north and west to make something work in the south. But it is MUCH harder to get a cold enough air mass to bring winter precip without that snowpack.

That being said I think it’s more likely we see something late January and into February for many in the SE

February looks like the best month for snow lovers and it’s not even close but January has some potential as well. About all you can ask for when you live in the south.

I’ll be moving to southern Illinois to start my position as a broadcast meteorologist on January 4th so selfishly I hope for the Midwest snow jackpot mid month ?

But you all will get yours as well no doubt about that.

Cheers.
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congrats man. all good weather boards need the broadcast met lying around. it's what gave americanwx a lot of spice back in the day. guessing you went to state who i think is uniquely positioned to produce strong broadcasters. the rigor of lackmann and the ludicrous amount of institutional broadcast knowledge NSJ gives you in the broadcast class sets you up really nicely. i doubt this is fresh advice but having not just one, but two suits- highly recommend- and work to join the secret facebook group for broadcasters immediately. chock full of good advice. i'm out of the industry and have been out for a while but still have moles (kat) that keep me abreast to things occasionally- feel free to dm if you have any questions
 
ILMRoss said:
It's both surprising and unsurprising. It fits the narrative of the year but still, I mean good lord is it ever going to snow again. Everybody is hurting. Staring down January and I think I've only seen winter storm warnings for like, northern Vermont.
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Welcome to living in NE Georgia. When I was a child it snowed regularly. We had pretty significant ice/snow storms in the 70s and 80s, and a blizzard in 1993. We've had a few 2-3" systems but nothing as big as when I was young.

The harsh reality is "climo" is shifting away from us and there isn't a whole lot anyone on this board can do to change that.
 
tractor girl said:
Welcome to living in NE Georgia. When I was a child it snowed regularly. We had pretty significant ice/snow storms in the 70s and 80s, and a blizzard in 1993. We've had a few 2-3" systems but nothing as big as when I was young.

The harsh reality is "climo" is shifting away from us and there isn't a whole lot anyone on this board can do to change that.
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1703708417922.png
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tractor girl said:
Welcome to living in NE Georgia. When I was a child it snowed regularly. We had pretty significant ice/snow storms in the 70s and 80s, and a blizzard in 1993. We've had a few 2-3" systems but nothing as big as when I was young.

The harsh reality is "climo" is shifting away from us and there isn't a whole lot anyone on this board can do to change that.
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My big hope is the further and further apart the storms are the better the chances for an anomaly storm that blows thru the records for us.
 
Dallas, GA. Best record keeping anywhere in the W/NW metro, still missing five years of data, I'll add it in manually.

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Missing Data:
2010-2011: 12.3"
2011-2012: No data or 0"
2012-2013: No data or 0"
2013-2014: 7.1"
2014-2015: 3.7"
2015-2016: .7"

Sum for 23 Seasons: 73.9" :eek:

Mean for past 23 seasons: 3.2" (Which is exactly what I presumed it was before calculations)

So if you live in the area below, your average annual snowfall is roughly 3".

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Brent said:
As someone who grew up in Alabama I remember way more winters as a kid it didn't snow. That's why we remember the big storms so much ?

And like I said the other day my parents live there and had their biggest storm since 93 in 2017... It took 24 years to top the maybe 6 inches we had in 93
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growing up in Carrollton, GA almost every winter we got at least a dusting. We had 10" in 1993 and 6" in 1992. Back to back winters with 6"+ !
 
I actually could agree with the latest GFS. Shows a trough dig out West, big storm system in the middle with a cold air push behind it. Eric did mention a Winter storm in the Midwest. There it is. Way out there. But I can definitely see how it unfolds like that.
 
J.C. said:
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Some data on that chart seems wrong. I had 7" imby in the blizzard of 1993. I remember that well as I was managing a pizza delivery store that day and had to try and make deliveries in it, since none of our employees could make it in. I had a 4wd.

Even taken at face value the chart kind of reinforces what I said, it snowed regularly as a child in my area (which included ATH, ATL, and even Spartanburg, we had 3 houses). "Regularly" probably looks different for you if you grew up further north where even more frequent and bountiful snows happened.

We did sneak out a few inches in early 2022 here, but we haven't seen a decent snow since 1993, or maybe 2009.
 
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