Pattern Jammin January 2024

[NickyBGuarantee]

I think the pattern in January is not perfect but it’s one that can certainly squeeze something out if you get all the right variables working out.

I don’t think you NEED snow pack to the north and west to make something work in the south. But it is MUCH harder to get a cold enough air mass to bring winter precip without that snowpack.

That being said I think it’s more likely we see something late January and into February for many in the SE

February looks like the best month for snow lovers and it’s not even close but January has some potential as well. About all you can ask for when you live in the south.

I’ll be moving to southern Illinois to start my position as a broadcast meteorologist on January 4th so selfishly I hope for the Midwest snow jackpot mid month ?

But you all will get yours as well no doubt about that.

Cheers.

 

[Jan88]

I think the pattern in January is not perfect but it’s one that can certainly squeeze something out if you get all the right variables working out.

I don’t think you NEED snow pack to the north and west to make something work in the south. But it is MUCH harder to get a cold enough air mass to bring winter precip without that snowpack.

That being said I think it’s more likely we see something late January and into February for many in the SE

February looks like the best month for snow lovers and it’s not even close but January has some potential as well. About all you can ask for when you live in the south.

I’ll be moving to southern Illinois to start my position as a broadcast meteorologist on January 4th so selfishly I hope for the Midwest snow jackpot mid month ?

But you all will get yours as well no doubt about that.

Cheers.

Reminds me of the super nino in the 90s. Rained s lot but never got much below 40.this year is a little more cold .at the mountains are getting some snow

 

[tennessee storm]

I think the pattern in January is not perfect but it’s one that can certainly squeeze something out if you get all the right variables working out.

I don’t think you NEED snow pack to the north and west to make something work in the south. But it is MUCH harder to get a cold enough air mass to bring winter precip without that snowpack.

That being said I think it’s more likely we see something late January and into February for many in the SE

February looks like the best month for snow lovers and it’s not even close but January has some potential as well. About all you can ask for when you live in the south.

I’ll be moving to southern Illinois to start my position as a broadcast meteorologist on January 4th so selfishly I hope for the Midwest snow jackpot mid month ?

But you all will get yours as well no doubt about that.

Cheers.

Yeah the pacific jet is kicking our a$$. At the moment

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

Reminds me of the super nino in the 90s. Rained s lot but never got much below 40.this year is a little more cold .at the mountains are getting some snow

At least in the big el-nino of 1997-98 we did get snow in Late December.

 

[Chazwin]

At least in the big el-nino of 1997-98 we did get snow in Late December.

The NC Piedmont also got a very good one in mid January as well and the mountains and foothills got hammered in a late February storm

 

[packfan98]

I checked out this video from BamWx on twitter after unfollowing them last year for some of their overhyped tweets. This is a very good pattern discussion about the options depending on the PV displacement.

Video

 

[packfan98]

Pretty good look here on the GEFS

 

[Twister]

Pretty good look here on the GEFS

GEFS has been pretty solid in showing a Storm. One thing I don't understand and somebody help me, is why the OP GFS never follows what the GEFS shows?

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[Ollie Williams]

GEFS has been pretty solid in showing a Storm. One thing I don't understand and somebody help me, is why the OP GFS never follows what the GEFS shows?

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Because the GEFS doesn't show a storm. There are a couple of members that skew the mean, but that is it. The pattern becomes incredibly unfavorable as the jet retracts and leaves a trough to develop over the west coast.

 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

They already have. Big blizzard past couple days.
Need western canada to whiten up and the lakes

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It's pretty amazing, and all that in the upper plains just happened. On Christmas the entire Eastern US was in the 50s and 60s. For whatever reasons, almost all the cold has been in Eurasia the past few years, with only a couple of intrusions to the US; Dec 22, Feb 21. Europe has had multiple cold outbreaks each of the past few years and has already had one this year. This past week China has had a historic cold outbreak, and yet we continue to struggle to get anything more than a few days of cool weather. The headlines at WYFF keep talking about this big cooldown coming and then you look at the temps and it gets us to our average. I hope maybe one of these SSWE can impact N America for a change, but other than that I just can't muster much hope. Even the fantasy maps we post don't do much outside the mountains. It's nice we haven't seen a bunch of 70s this month so there's that.

 

[SD]

If we score anything over the next 10 days or would take perfect timing. Mediocre cold, no blocking, active flow means no way to really hold any cold in place. I think the best shot to hit is going to be on the front or back of one of these low amplitude waves but without perfect timing it's easy to shear these out or over amp and shoot it north. If you think it's bad now wait about 5-7 days this place is going to get insufferable

 

[Twister]

Because the GEFS doesn't show a storm. There are a couple of members that skew the mean, but that is it. The pattern becomes incredibly unfavorable as the jet retracts and leaves a trough to develop over the west coast.
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But that Map Pack showed was showing Snow for the SE and that was the GEFS ENS was it not?

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[Mitch West]

But that Map Pack showed was showing Snow for the SE and that was the GEFS ENS was it not?

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It combines all the members together & creates one model run basically. The outlier model members that show a ton of snow are skewing that image you see. Those are ok to look at, but normally don't show the picture very well, especially if you have a couple members dropping massive amounts of snow with 90% or more either showing nothing or rain.

 

[SD]

But that Map Pack showed was showing Snow for the SE and that was the GEFS ENS was it not?

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The image posted by @packfan98 is basically the mean of the 6hr qpf type. If you have a few members showing snow and the rest showing nothing that averages out as snow. Some of these images are really buyer beware especially as you go out from hour 0

 

[Mitch West]

Of course, this is past day 10 but it's slowly looking more and more possible that we are going to get a deep trough in the West. I believe @Webberweather53 mentioned this a few times. It would help our cold air source. If you keep the frames moving into the 300 & further out range, the trough moves East. Cold air gets dislodged & feeds what hopefully will still be energy flying around.

 

[Chazwin]

Of course, this is past day 10 but it's slowly looking more and more possible that we are going to get a deep trough in the West. I believe @Webberweather53 mentioned this a few times. It would help our cold air source. If you keep the frames moving into the 300 & further out range, the trough moves East. Cold air gets dislodged & feeds what hopefully will still be energy flying around.
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and though there some increased heights in the east you don’t see the SER flexing… also you can see the blocking over Greenland getting stronger… that’s a very similar progression to January 2010 and 2016

 

[SD]

Of course, this is past day 10 but it's slowly looking more and more possible that we are going to get a deep trough in the West. I believe @Webberweather53 mentioned this a few times. It would help our cold air source. If you keep the frames moving into the 300 & further out range, the trough moves East. Cold air gets dislodged & feeds what hopefully will still be energy flying around.
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It'll be interesting to see if this is the catalyst for a true-nao. On the gefs you can see the heights pumping into Greenland and the heights from the tpv over Hudson Bay pulling SE under the block. Ultimate hope here was to flex this up when the spv got split to hold the -nao in place through the rest of winter and set up fab Feb and mega March but the spv split getting less emphatic has me concerned

 

[CaryWx]

Really enjoy your podcasts Mitch. Quick question.

Like the precip ens means can these larger feature ens means be skewed by just a few members as well?

 

[CaryWx]

Also, is the SSWE not progged with as high a confidence now as was last week.

 

[Mitch West]

Really enjoy your podcasts Mitch. Quick question.

Like the precip ens means can these larger feature ens means be skewed by just a few members as well?

I appreciate that! I've learned a lot of what I know from people on this site. Lot of knowledgeable people in here.

Ensemble means can be skewed by anything on any of the members that are outlier scenarios. Regarding the SSWE, my knowledge on it is still a big work in progress.