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Pattern Jammin January 2024

strongwxnc said:
Current dreams of future past.

My area had 13" at 16 degrees during one of the many storms during that winter.
87 and 88 is what I tell my kids about every winter. Been chasing ever since :)
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Here in Pittsboro NC we will forever love 87-88. Wish another one like that would happen. Ice that made the county stand still (no one on the roads) followed by a foot of snow.
 
KyloG said:
Winter reminding me of 87...and we know how good the back half of 87 was.

87 mid-Jan...

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This board would go crazy if we got a repeat of that winter. Some of the southeast scored big in APRIL that year, even outside of the mountains, and if that low had tracked farther southeast even more areas would have been hit.
 
Eric's snow maps are great reminders. I was in Winston and I swear I missed 2 months of school due to snow.

www.webberweather.com

1980s Winter Storms (NC)

*Please note that clicking on any of the underlined hyperlinks to individual storms, seasons, and decades alike (except for the first decade (1890s)) will all direct you to a different snow and...
www.webberweather.com

compday.FECz7gcUxI.gif
 
JHS said:
This board would go crazy if we got a repeat of that winter. Some of the southeast scored big in APRIL that year, even outside of the mountains, and if that low had tracked farther southeast even more areas would have been hit.
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I’ll never forget the storm that January that the NWS and local mets got completely wrong for CLT metro. The 6pm news the night before everyone was predicting CLT metro to get mainly rain with snow mixed in at times. The only exception was WBTV who at the time Accuweather did their forecasts and was forecasting CLT to get 4-7”. Joe Bastardi was on WBT radio giving that forecast even with no watches or advisories for the area. By the 11pm newscast, the NWS office and local mets were having to scramble because it was very clear based on upstream obs their forecasts were going to bust badly.
 
Flotown said:
gonna head to nc mountains soon,best place to go for snow thats not ski area??
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Some of the higher peaks on the Tennessee line should be doing really well the next couple weeks. My personal preference is Carvers Gap, which is a little over 5,000 feet elevation and can be reached by highway 261. Once you’re there you can take short hikes to some beautiful vistas that are closer to 6,000 feet elevation. As far as places to stay nearby, Newland, Bakersville, and Spruce Pine have plenty of options.
 
CltNative90 said:
Some of the higher peaks on the Tennessee line should be doing really well the next couple weeks. My personal preference is Carvers Gap, which is a little over 5,000 feet elevation and can be reached by highway 261. Once you’re there you can take short hikes to some beautiful vistas that are closer to 6,000 feet elevation. As far as places to stay nearby, Newland, Bakersville, and Spruce Pine have plenty of options.
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thanks
 
Chazwin said:
I’ll never forget the storm that January that the NWS and local mets got completely wrong for CLT metro. The 6pm news the night before everyone was predicting CLT metro to get mainly rain with snow mixed in at times. The only exception was WBTV who at the time Accuweather did their forecasts and was forecasting CLT to get 4-7”. Joe Bastardi was on WBT radio giving that forecast even with no watches or advisories for the area. By the 11pm newscast, the NWS office and local mets were having to scramble because it was very clear based on upstream obs their forecasts were going to bust badly.
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That was a heavy wet snow here in the Northern Upstate.
GSP got 12 inches officially.
The temp was in the lower 30's most of the storm.
Then we got an unexpected snow in early April while the mountains just to my north got feet.
 
Mitch West said:
Cold air source finally getting cold....

REAL COLD.
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Now if we can get that to translate east the following week...might be looking at real winter in the SE
 
Mitch West said:
It’s from 3 days ago also which is equivalent to 5 weeks ago in weather model time.
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I understand, I was just looking back over the past weeks model runs and saw it, thought it was interesting. Like I said in op, I know its slim to none to happen.
 
i dont really hate where we are going with the models..cold looks to be on the move toward end of euro
 
Mitch West said:
Haha no worries.

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Jan88 said:
Now to get some energy to round the base of this trough.would b game on for many
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Get the -NAO to go bonkers and tuck more of this blue up under the block post cutter, and we'd have a shot with a follow-up wave. EPS Snow map here has some light action per this scenario.

Problem is, the pattern overall is going to want to retrograde to the west given falling AAM and MJO progression; a big block could change things though.

1wodDzJ.png


sAAwsXE.gif
 
So pretty much here’s the deal and what we want. We want the 1/4 system to become a blizzard as far west as we can get it (New England blizzard would work). This gives us confluence for 1/7 system (probably a mid-atlantic storm only but we will see). Then want the 1/7 to trend stronger and slower so that it can provide confluence for the cutter system that could produce some onset CAD mixed precip. Let the cutter move through give us the cold air and then hope for a follow up wave.
 
LukeBarrette said:
So pretty much here’s the deal and what we want. We want the 1/4 system to become a blizzard as far west as we can get it (New England blizzard would work). This gives us confluence for 1/7 system (probably a mid-atlantic storm only but we will see). Then want the 1/7 to trend stronger and slower so that it can provide confluence for the cutter system that could produce some onset CAD mixed precip. Let the cutter move through give us the cold air and then hope for a follow up wave.
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Great post!
 
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