CMC ens looks better so far for the upper SE 
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Pattern Jammin January 2024
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
GEFS 
I know these updates from Brad are probably more so geared towards Ski country, but Brad seems pretty juiced about this pattern heading into January, especially in the longer range.
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WSW
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Insert Miller B cad post that's inevitably coming
Euro is not gonna be good. Onto 00z
Only a crisp 12 hour wait. Let's hope for some fun trends to round off 2023.
I kinda thought we were starting them but then the Euro goes buzzkill mode.
mydoortotheworld
Member
Euro is known as Dr. No for a reason!
Avalanche
Member
Sho nuff is
Brent
Member
Euro snowing south of me. yay
Worst case scenario ?
Worst case scenario ?
iGRXY
Member
Get ready for 40 degree CAD rains with this look
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Looks like miller B time
I think as long as AK is warm , we are good
We continue to get this closer and closer folks.
I am honestly kinda surprised this isn't being talked about more in the weather world. I guess everyone is hung up on the two storm threats, but we continue to make steady moves in the long range. It's not like this has been some sort of long range blimp either. Kinda reminds me of last December when 10-12 days out we gradually worked arctic air into a forecast period. Not saying this is December 2022.
I am honestly kinda surprised this isn't being talked about more in the weather world. I guess everyone is hung up on the two storm threats, but we continue to make steady moves in the long range. It's not like this has been some sort of long range blimp either. Kinda reminds me of last December when 10-12 days out we gradually worked arctic air into a forecast period. Not saying this is December 2022.
severestorm
Member
Ensembles still don't look too bad IMO. Praying and hoping for some accumulation.
SimeonNC
Member
Do you have the map?
iGRXY
Member
I think it’s game on between the 15th-20th forward. We can go with the 20th just to be safe but we are heading towards a really good looking pattern that we haven’t seen in 2 years. I’d be astonished if we don’t score on something big between the 20th thru February.
rburrel2
Member
Euro actually close to some front end Ice on Saturday for CAD area's of GA/NC/SC. If the wave was a little faster to arrive like the gfs/cmc show it would be a solid front end hit.
severestorm
Member
rburrel2
Member
Basically the CMC/Euro wind up that first storm pretty strong in the Atlantic and allows for some decent confluence over new england. We just need the main storm to speed up a few clicks to time it up perfectly because the air mass/high pressure feed isn't especially cold or dry. You can see on the map below of that trough in texas was shifted to the east 300/400 miles we could have something to work with.
Definitely not likely, but in the realm of possibilities at the moment.
Definitely not likely, but in the realm of possibilities at the moment.
rburrel2
Member
18z ICON is trying to get cute with the first storm over north GA. I hate to extrapolate,(actually I love to do it), but the 18z ICON seems like it would be a paste job for North GA/Upstate SC if it went out another 6-12 hours. Definite crush job for the Mountains would have been incoming.
rburrel2
Member
Both of these "storms" are going to be thread the needle type events, but hey... at least we have two cracks at it! Maybe some of us will get lucky on one of them.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
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Northern stream improvement is huge just need a stronger shortwave now
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
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tennessee storm
Member
Just simply not cold enough .
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
This matches very well with Burrel's ECMWF image from the last page. It would take a lot but then again it wouldn't. Move that 1026 a bit North and make it a 1035 and move that ElPaso low to just off the coast of the other side of TX and we might have something.
rburrel2
Member
18z GFS is a crush job for the mountains with the 2nd storm. In situ wedge as well with 33/34 surface temps all day Saturday for favored CAD regions. Very close to an isothermal paste job as depicted. We're still in the game for now.
rburrel2
Member
Here's GSP's sounding Saturday afternoon. whew.
It’s trending in the right direction. It seems the “blockbuster” winters we see at least a minor event or two for the MA/NE in early January.
Really positive changes on the GFS. Slower, more dug in exiting trough to the NE due to blocking, Further Suppressed height field 
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Yeah it's not a terrible look. In situ wedge high gets pushed out in the first frame, with the previous system acting as our 50/50 the frame before.
We lose the 50/50 and that 1020 is just too weak with the initial cold source too weak as well. That s/w really tries to catch up and thread the needle though. Pretty good timing but we have to find a bit more cold for those outside the mountains.
Here's the crushjob for the mtns.
We lose the 50/50 and that 1020 is just too weak with the initial cold source too weak as well. That s/w really tries to catch up and thread the needle though. Pretty good timing but we have to find a bit more cold for those outside the mountains.
Here's the crushjob for the mtns.
Phasing the mid week system is really really important clearly. Slows down the NATL and in this case develops a -NAO 
Might have a good GEFS run coming up soon 
GFS dropping the Arctic hammer.
597DM
Member
Snowcover?
iGRXY
Member
Perks is the GFS is beyond bad with CAD wedges so botterline temps like above at this range is eyebrow raising. But again we have to time this thing perfectly. Like I said last night, from a MSLP look it’s a text book 50/50, with stream separation from our S/W sliding east and raised heights over the northeast, but there’s nothing to lock in the cold air as the northern stream is still pretty progressive with no -NAO. Right now we need to slow the 50/50 down and allow our cold air feed to really get in place while also speeding up the S/W and having it strong enough to help tap into the cold air feed. The good news is S/W almost always ends up being quicker but it’s a matter of how much.
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