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Pattern Jammin January 2024

Myfrotho704_ said:
GFS probably gonna be to progressive with the northern stream to leave an adequate cold source, but it’s better then before. We could use a CMC like depiction with the northern stream slowing, and digging out ahead
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Exactly. Just nothing holding the 50/50 in place to lock in any cold air at the surface. The MSLP map is textbook if we just had some type of cold air feed. But it did move into a much better direction vs last run at the same time frame and at least gives the 18Z GEFS noise a little bit of credence.
 
if there’s one thing to note, it seems as if the southern stream for the first time in a while isn’t the problem. It’s timing the northern stream and getting it to dig, at the right location and time. CMC has higher overall heights around B.C/western Canada which allows the TPV/cold northern stream trough to dig. GFS has a GOAK low, which is no bueno. Looks like we have something to track honestly. But EPS/GEPS support is needed before I say it’s legit 22EE788F-4E72-45A9-B675-E8C2A6F5F4AB.png12484F51-3F31-46D1-A610-99D3AF422B9C.png
 
I wouldn’t be harboring hopes for anything until January 15th and onward… you can see how the long range GFS shows why people are excited for late January pattern and February pattern as we will have tons more cold air on our side of the map with storm systems skirting along the southern periphery… much more cold air around with an active southern jet won’t guarantee you snow but it builds snow pack and makes winter storms or even light winter events much more attainable even down south. I’m excited for the pattern we’re going to get into.

But again that is excitement for late January and February.. not early January .. for the SE at least
 
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Last nights euro is lock step with Canadian. East TN, NC and Va Mountain snow mix with decent shot backside flake. Storm 2 right on its heels gets mix down in piedmont NC, Just like Canadian, except it had snow. Yall cant wait for the holy grail pattern, slam dunk storm to show up late Jan into Feb. But we got 2 close (not guranteed) shots coming up in the day 5 to 9 range.

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NCSNOW said:
Last nights euro is lock step with Canadian. East TN, NC and Va Mountain snow mix with decent shot backside flake. Storm 2 right on its heels gets mix down in piedmont NC, Just like Canadian, except it had snow. Yall cant wait for the holy grail pattern, slam dunk storm to show up late Jan into Feb. But we got 2 close (not guranteed) shots coming up in the day 5 to 9 range.

View attachment 139327
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That EURO is close to a big storm for the NC Piedmont and even the SC upstate. I think that look could trend colder as well. A 1030 high is not great but it’s not bad either. Also, as you and I both have noticed, southeast Canada has held on to its snowpack very well so there is legit cold air for that high to tap into and produce a strong CAD. We should have a fairly well established
-NAO at that point as well to slow that high down a tad.
 
Chazwin said:
That EURO is close to a big storm for the NC Piedmont and even the SC upstate. I think that look could trend colder as well. A 1030 high is not great but it’s not bad either. Also, as you and I both have noticed, southeast Canada has held on to its snowpack very well so there is legit cold air for that high to tap into and produce a strong CAD. We should have a fairly well established
-NAO at that point as well to slow that high down a tad.
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By "close" I think we need the 850mb freezing line to be about 250 miles further south. Might that be too far to ask for this pattern? I don't see any iterations of origin data on the GEFS ensembles to suggest a move that far south. Cold rains inbound for Atlanta for the next two weeks.
 
I don't know if I would consider this one close to a big dog. Both the 850s and 2m temp anomalies are near normal over our region and upstream. The PV lobe north of that weak High in the northeast is moving out pretty rapidly. We're not establishing a west-based NAO, so that doesn't seem likely to provide any help anchoring the high. This looks like a classic case of marginal residual cold in climo spots seeing a tiny bit of front end frozen before the inevitable changeover to rain. I suppose things good trend better, but it would take a lot, not just small, simple tweaks or timing. I hate to keep harping on it, but we need a real cold air source and a solid delivery of that into the area. Both are missing or extremely weak in this situation. But it is 222 hours out, so it certainly makes sense to at least keep watching.

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JLL1973 said:
Looks like a parade of storms tracking across the gulf in the next ten days or so but just lacking any cold air sources. Maybe areas in the midsouth can time one up just right and score. Heck I hope everyone on the board can score.
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Would love to trend the shortwaves stronger but on the same track. Stronger system = better snow shield. Heavier precip = dynamic cooling and more people cashing in on heavy wet flakes.
 
weatherfide said:
By "close" I think we need the 850mb freezing line to be about 250 miles further south. Might that be too far to ask for this pattern? I don't see any iterations of origin data on the GEFS ensembles to suggest a move that far south. Cold rains inbound for Atlanta for the next two weeks.
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Yeah I was meaning close for the NC Piedmont and SC Upstate… where the 540 line is close by. It’s probably a long shot especially at this lead but something to watch for
 
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