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Pattern Jammin January 2024

RainCold this proves why u are one of the posters that I pay close attention too when it comes to reading the models, Patterns, & Future Tea Leaves.
Best post I've seen in many years not just on this board but many boards.
Thank you for your common sense and cautious realism while trying to spin it in a positive way.

I've thought this for many years.
Maybe there's something more sinister going on with our sensible weather.
Seems to me that the Earth still has plenty of cold in the Winter in the NH,
Seemingly constantly in Eurasia every single season now.

Was the Entire NH in the freezer in the 60-80's ?
I'm not sure Bc their wasn't any National 24/7 Weather stations till the Early to Mid 80's.
Even then they rarely talked about things outside of The Lower 48 or occasionally the North American continent if it was going to have downstream effects on the weather in the lower 48.

So maybe it's just the case that those years NA was very cold and Eurasia was warm.
Idk,
I've always wondered as much.
Maybe this is just a cycle.
Or maybe their is some kind of weather modification going on,
By forcing the NSJet to do things it wouldn't do otherwise.
I know I'm going to be called a Conspiracy Theorist.
I always believed that Govs around the world saw value in being able to control at least certain aspects of the weather...
Including our own.
Does this mean it's definitely taking place? Of course not,
But I'm not so naive to believe that their aren't many trying to do so.
Btw I do whole heartily believe in Climate change.
I just think there's more going on than meets the eye.

Here's to looking at the clown & funny faces this will cause.
I pray we all get the winterstorm of the century before this winter is over.
 
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Pretty strong signal on the 18z GEFS.
1704564000-xqg6GwYx7Ac.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
One single member dumps something like 30 inches across North Georgia between two storms. Even with the skew, around 20% of the members show at least a decent event within 10 days.
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Yeah I counted 30% for mby and a couple of near misses. That’s a good percentage at this range. Just need to start a trend and increase over the coming days
 
packfan98 said:
Pretty strong signal on the 18z GEFS.
1704564000-xqg6GwYx7Ac.png
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Good to note that these GEFS are still based on the old GFS model… not the most reliable.. I would lean on the EPS and GEPS over the GEFS unless they are all in agreement.. and if we did get a storm to track like this I would likely lean towards climo favored regions of the mountains with the limited cold air.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Good to note that these GEFS are still based on the old GFS model… not the most reliable.. I would lean on the EPS and GEPS over the GEFS unless they are all in agreement.. and if we did get a storm to track like this I would likely lean towards climo favored regions of the mountains with the limited cold air.
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Just curious why do we even bother to post GEFS runs it they suck so bad?
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Good to note that these GEFS are still based on the old GFS model… not the most reliable.. I would lean on the EPS and GEPS over the GEFS unless they are all in agreement.. and if we did get a storm to track like this I would likely lean towards climo favored regions of the mountains with the limited cold air.
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Are you optimistic about any snow for southern Illinois over the next 2 weeks ?
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Good to note that these GEFS are still based on the old GFS model… not the most reliable.. I would lean on the EPS and GEPS over the GEFS unless they are all in agreement.. and if we did get a storm to track like this I would likely lean towards climo favored regions of the mountains with the limited cold air.
Click to expand...
Even looking at the GEFS verbatim, the pattern really isn't conducive to anything off the coast with low pressure sitting over the Great Lakes. If we see anything, it would likely be along the lines of the Euro with cold rain across the southeast. However, the few ensembles look to be outliers away from the overall mean.
gfs-ensemble-all-avg-conus-mslp_anom-4574800.png
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Good to note that these GEFS are still based on the old GFS model… not the most reliable.. I would lean on the EPS and GEPS over the GEFS unless they are all in agreement.. and if we did get a storm to track like this I would likely lean towards climo favored regions of the mountains with the limited cold air.
Click to expand...

New GFS ain't much better so I'm happy looking at the old school ensembles. But yeah I'd lean to whatever model doesn't have snow, as that's the most likely the one to be right. Now thinking about it, that's usually the EPS, so you're actually right. :)
 
Ollie Williams said:
Even looking at the GEFS verbatim, the pattern really isn't conducive to anything off the coast with low pressure sitting over the Great Lakes. If we see anything, it would likely be along the lines of the Euro with cold rain across the southeast. However, the few ensembles look to be outliers away from the overall mean.
View attachment 139289
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Goes back to my previous point, there's no high to the north, no CAD, no real cold source. So verbatim, it's a cold rain. Sweet storm location though. ?
 
Chazwin said:
Need it stronger and it to slow down a bit
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Definitely. Though that high wasn't there in the 12z that I could tell, so I assumed it wasn't in the 18. Makes sense the snow means jumped up with a high introduced over the top. If we can keep that trend going maybe we'll be on to something. ?. Queue the 0z gong.

1703817665581.png
 
GLs low is a part of a northern stream wave/phaser, which might not be a bad thing in this setup because it could inject cold air that way, but those are harder to come by. Miller A means/analogs have higher MSLP in the plains.
 
iGRXY said:
Stream separation on the GFS with a more consolidated 50/50 would lead to some type of mix bag event dependent on S/W out of the southwest if we could just have some decent cold
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GFS probably gonna be to progressive with the northern stream to leave an adequate cold source, but it’s better then before. We could use a CMC like depiction with the northern stream slowing, and digging out ahead
 
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