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Pattern Jammin January 2023

Myfrotho704_ said:
CMCE has the bad looking pacific ridge but has enough blocking on top and it keeps a TPV tucked more towards us. Some pretty big run to run changes as well. But it’s weird seeing that type of NPAC ridge and us being cold, normally this flatter NPAC ridge look is associated with a warmer eastern US View attachment 130429View attachment 130428View attachment 130427
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I guess the power of A little more blocking / 50/50 and a cold TPV on our side of the globe
 
12z GEFS and 0z EPS are certainly entering workable territory if you’re hoping for something to show up at the tail end of January. We also have a decent snow pack to the north & the air mass is legit to our NW (as @Myfrotho704_, @NickyBGuarantee, & @griteater have alluded to).

Objectively speaking, I can’t help but be at least slightly encouraged by what I’ve seen the last day or two in general & we will need to see this theme of deeper 50-50 low continue the next few days to give ourselves a chance. We still have to get the details right even if the long wave pattern looks good + trends better the next 5-7 days. We’ll cross that bridge when we get there, because none of that really matters this far out, just focus on the big, general picture.


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Just some timing issues here but as we get closer watch and hope for a couple of things.
1. The southern energy ejecting a bit quicker or the lakes energy being a bit slower for a phase. The ICON phases the two pieces of energy allowing for an EC system. The euro misses this phase because of timing.
2. Watch the energy coming out of the PAC NW as this absorbs the shortwave and allows for a cut into the lakes. If we can weaken this or slow it down then we can pump some heights up the west coast and dig our southern energy better.
 
LukeBarrette said:
View attachment 130442
Just some timing issues here but as we get closer watch and hope for a couple of things.
1. The southern energy ejecting a bit quicker or the lakes energy being a bit slower for a phase. The ICON phases the two pieces of energy allowing for an EC system. The euro misses this phase because of timing.
2. Watch the energy coming out of the PAC NW as this absorbs the shortwave and allows for a cut into the lakes. If we can weaken this or slow it down then we can pump some heights up the west coast and dig our southern energy better.
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To add on to that we have plenty of time to make this work
 
Today was the first ECMWF run that didn't crater the upper low out west deep into the SW US (like the CMC oddly enough which has been an outlier for a while). Curious if that's a real trend or noise, need to see the ensemble here. If it's a real trend, then that changes things (in a favorable way) downstream in the extended range.
 
BullCityWx said:
Is it about to bomb out and then slide into the 50/50 position?
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Ding Ding
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This is why trying to cancel winter in the middle of January is foolish. These models are terribly variant. In fact the only sure thing I know after the last 3-4 years is that I know these models are going to flip around repeatedly and that it's never as good or bad as it appears. Things have trended better in the extended and that's all you can hope for. Now at a minimum I think we've trended well enough that we are going to get a lot of CAD type of days to fight off any torch. And the pieces for a potential winter storm are on the table which is all you can ask for. Some areas are better situated than others in the juncture. Western areas (TX,LA, Ark, West Tennessee, West Mississippi) and CAD friendly areas of VA, NC, SC, and NEGA have the most ways to score something frozen, but the players are there for everyone on the board to hit.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Just about every bounce has gone in favor of a something potentially showing up near month's end (esp a CAD event).

Cautiously optimistic. Wish I had been paying more attention to the short-term, I think I get too far-sighted on the long range sometimes
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We'll forgive you for the coming February torch if we all get blasted 01/31 and an encore 03/01. ;)
 
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