Pattern Jammin January 2023

[Iceagewhereartthou]

Well lots of depressing outlooks right now going forward. I decided to look back at 2011-12 for some comparison. Obviously that season did not have anything comparable to the Dec cold front this year, and probably not the NWFS event from last night, but for the SE as a whole this season has been pretty absent of winter, much like that year. Here are some numbers for GSP

Dec 2011

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Max Avg Min 55 42.2 29 63 45.9 32 58 47.3 38 57 48.9 39 56 54.2 53 65 59.6 54 63 57.8 40 52 41.1 32 54 43.1 33 54 44.0 36 47 39.0 32 45 40.8 37 65 51.9 40 66 54.5 44 67 57.7 48 69 59.5 54 58 49.5 38 55 42.4 32 58 45.3 32 55 51.7 43 63 57.0 52 65 62.6 61 64 55.9 47 53 45.4 37 50 43.7 39 55 42.1 33 52 42.5 39 51 41.1 32 55 40.4 27 54 46.3 36 63 47.3 42

Nothing exciting here but not the worst Dec ever.
Here is this past Dec. Really the only difference at all was the 4 day front surrounding Christmas:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Max Avg Min 55 42.5 32 55 44.0 30 58 53.0 49 57 46.3 38 46 42.6 37 50 46.1 43 63 56.4 50 69 60.4 53 58 52.3 48 50 48.5 46 50 48.9 47 56 49.1 46 48 42.9 37 42 40.8 40 48 41.3 37 52 41.6 33 49 40.8 31 49 37.3 27 49 37.0 25 42 38.5 34 48 40.3 36 48 40.9 36 47 30.4 13 27 17.0 7 37 25.1 14 38 27.8 15 48 35.6 28 54 36.8 24 64 47.1 30 59 50.4 33 56 53.0 51

Here was Jan 2012, again, nothing too exciting either way.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Max Avg Min 66 51.9 36 48 38.0 26 36 27.7 21 48 34.4 19 59 44.5 30 65 49.4 35 69 55.6 45 56 53.2 49 52 49.4 46 57 52.8 50 62 54.1 49 57 48.9 33 40 32.7 27 49 35.4 23 51 40.5 32 49 39.3 29 54 50.0 38 54 46.2 37 45 37.3 30 50 44.1 35 54 48.5 43 50 44.0 38 45 39.3 37 63 48.6 44 64 51.6 37 63 55.7 52 65 57.6 42 65 46.9 33 54 42.8 30 61 46.3 31 63 50.6 37

And here's so far this Jan

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Max Avg Min 58 52.5 47 71 56.5 48 63 56.4 50 64 59.6 52 63 52.2 42 58 46.3 36 53 45.8 37 50 46.4 43 54 44.2 35 60 44.3 31 58 48.4 35 67 54.8 48 53 46.2 37 43 37.8 33

Literally, the only difference b/w the two is the Dec cold front and the accompanying trace of sleet/snow, with this Jan actually looking a tad warmer. Pretty sobering perspective so far.

 

[iGRXY]

I’m going to laugh when we trend right into a western Carolina ice storm cad special. One hood thing comes from SER, CAD. And you can bet your bottom dollar that’s where these “torches” are going to go

 

[Chazwin]

I’m going to laugh when we trend right into a western Carolina ice storm cad special. One hood thing comes from SER, CAD. And you can bet your bottom dollar that’s where these “torches” are going to go

Yeah and you can already see it with the lower heights consistently showing up over the North Atlantic and SE Canada

 

[Snownut]

I’m going to laugh when we trend right into a western Carolina ice storm cad special. One hood thing comes from SER, CAD. And you can bet your bottom dollar that’s where these “torches” are going to go

We've seen it over and over. The funny thing is some on here that really knows what they're talking about knows it too Yet they continue to lead one to believe Winter is over. If I was a betting man I'd bet all I have winter is a long way from over.

Sent from my SM-A526U using Tapatalk

 

[Chazwin]

Well lots of depressing outlooks right now going forward. I decided to look back at 2011-12 for some comparison. Obviously that season did not have anything comparable to the Dec cold front this year, and probably not the NWFS event from last night, but for the SE as a whole this season has been pretty absent of winter, much like that year. Here are some numbers for GSP

Dec 2011

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Max Avg Min 55 42.2 29 63 45.9 32 58 47.3 38 57 48.9 39 56 54.2 53 65 59.6 54 63 57.8 40 52 41.1 32 54 43.1 33 54 44.0 36 47 39.0 32 45 40.8 37 65 51.9 40 66 54.5 44 67 57.7 48 69 59.5 54 58 49.5 38 55 42.4 32 58 45.3 32 55 51.7 43 63 57.0 52 65 62.6 61 64 55.9 47 53 45.4 37 50 43.7 39 55 42.1 33 52 42.5 39 51 41.1 32 55 40.4 27 54 46.3 36 63 47.3 42

Nothing exciting here but not the worst Dec ever.
Here is this past Dec. Really the only difference at all was the 4 day front surrounding Christmas:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Max Avg Min 55 42.5 32 55 44.0 30 58 53.0 49 57 46.3 38 46 42.6 37 50 46.1 43 63 56.4 50 69 60.4 53 58 52.3 48 50 48.5 46 50 48.9 47 56 49.1 46 48 42.9 37 42 40.8 40 48 41.3 37 52 41.6 33 49 40.8 31 49 37.3 27 49 37.0 25 42 38.5 34 48 40.3 36 48 40.9 36 47 30.4 13 27 17.0 7 37 25.1 14 38 27.8 15 48 35.6 28 54 36.8 24 64 47.1 30 59 50.4 33 56 53.0 51

Here was Jan 2012, again, nothing too exciting either way.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Max Avg Min 66 51.9 36 48 38.0 26 36 27.7 21 48 34.4 19 59 44.5 30 65 49.4 35 69 55.6 45 56 53.2 49 52 49.4 46 57 52.8 50 62 54.1 49 57 48.9 33 40 32.7 27 49 35.4 23 51 40.5 32 49 39.3 29 54 50.0 38 54 46.2 37 45 37.3 30 50 44.1 35 54 48.5 43 50 44.0 38 45 39.3 37 63 48.6 44 64 51.6 37 63 55.7 52 65 57.6 42 65 46.9 33 54 42.8 30 61 46.3 31 63 50.6 37

And here's so far this Jan

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Max Avg Min 58 52.5 47 71 56.5 48 63 56.4 50 64 59.6 52 63 52.2 42 58 46.3 36 53 45.8 37 50 46.4 43 54 44.2 35 60 44.3 31 58 48.4 35 67 54.8 48 53 46.2 37 43 37.8 33

Literally, the only difference b/w the two is the Dec cold front and the accompanying trace of sleet/snow, with this Jan actually looking a tad warmer. Pretty sobering perspective so far.

I will say the big difference going forward is the lower heights showing over SE Canada and the North Atlantic on the models. That was not there in 2011-12. This along with colder air moving into and building up in Canada opens the door for CAD opportunities

 

[ajr]

Few pics from Beech today. Apologies for the cellphone picture, but I guess it was cold enough that you can see these amazing geometric flakes

 

[LukeBarrette]

I hate it here

 

[griteater]

I will say the big difference going forward is the lower heights showing over SE Canada and the North Atlantic on the models. That was not there in 2011-12. This along with colder air moving into and building up in Canada opens the door for CAD opportunities

11-12 was right up there with one of the worst winter patterns of all time. It did manage a couple week period of split flow in mid Feb that yielded a light snow event across parts of Northern NC, and that was it

 

[Webberweather53]

View attachment 130227
I hate it here

I’ll take it ! ?

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

It is gnarly up at Beech tonight. Howling winds. Sub zero wind chills. Brutal

 

[Wildboutsnow]

It is gnarly up at Beech tonight. Howling winds. Sub zero wind chills. Brutal

Perfect time for the hot tub if it's indoors and a liquor drink!
My fam had a house years ago atop Hawksnest. The hot tub was in a glass room. Oh the memories and hangovers........
Have FUN!!

 

[Chazwin]

11-12 was right up there with one of the worst winter patterns of all time. It did manage a couple week period of split flow in mid Feb that yielded a light snow event across parts of Northern NC, and that was it

The thing that I remember most about that winter besides the lack of snowfall was just how absolutely boring things were for 90% of the time. It was mild yes, but nothing absurdly warm… just basically 6-10 degrees above average everyday with no variability. Most of us were in a deep drought so we didn’t have any rain or severe weather to track. Just an absolutely boring period of weather

 

[NoSnowATL]

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

It’s lit up here 4 runs and I’m DONE! Frigid

 

[NoSnowATL]

It’s lit up here 4 runs and I’m DONE! FrigidView attachment 130232

Diet Coke?

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Diet Coke?

Something like that!

 

[JHS]

The thing that I remember most about that winter besides the lack of snowfall was just how absolutely boring things were for 90% of the time. It was mild yes, but nothing absurdly warm… just basically 6-10 degrees above average everyday with no variability. Most of us were in a deep drought so we didn’t have any rain or severe weather to track. Just an absolutely boring period of weather

We had that one outbreak in early March 2012 that included a fairly strong UNWARNED tornado in Charlotte after 2am. We dodged a bullet in that the tornado was not stronger because it hit a high population area in the middle of the night. GSP really messed up that night, in fact I am not sure there was even a severe thunderstorm warning on it. They were paying a little too much attention to weaker storms in the GSP metro.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

The wind chill up on Beech is unbearable. Idk how to get the exact number but you can’t stand very long exposed to it. It’s a painful type of cold

 

[NCSNOW]

The wind chill up on Beech is unbearable. Idk how to get the exact number but you can’t stand very long exposed to it. It’s a painful type of cold

And your still in the south. Get the best of all worlds up there , all 4 seasons without having to tollerate northerners.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Well we’re definitely going to SER but with cold air being so close to us those high pressures will pack a punch. We’re going to get lots of CAD if these looks continue to hold. We will also get lots of quick 70 degree warm ups out of no where once the highs move away and the potential for severe weather. If we can get moisture timed well with CAD we certainly could ice