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Pattern Jammin January 2023



For all intents and purposes, it almost certainly is not going to matter a whole lot whether RMM decays or not.

There’s going to be a huge uptick in tropical forcing over the eastern hemisphere coupled with La Niña in early to mid February, whether that’s from Kelvin Waves or ENSO-related doesn’t change the outcome downstream; we’re going to have a healthy SE ridge anyway you slice it. We’ve already set that into motion with the big pacific jet retraction this week.

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Indices this morning were atrocious for us here in the SE as we go forward in time. All 3 ensemble show the AO going positive, NAO neutral, PNA going BIG TIME negative with only the EPO showing any promise. To top that off, the MJO is heading to phase three and trying to get into phase 4.
 
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