Brent
Member
Winter definitely isn't over here
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Pattern Jammin January 2023
- Thread starter Goose88
- Start date
Six Mile Wx
Member
Big changes on the overnight Euro Op and control. Biggest changes are large height increase over the Arctic and a much weaker SER! Are we seeing the correct solution or another head fake?
tennessee storm
Member
Head fake … meh
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Also one operational model run 10+ days out = noise
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I unfortunately still think we are probably gonna be stuck in this garbage pattern for the long haul. Could be a few bouts of cooler air and maybe a snowball’s chance in hell something shows up, but it’s objectively not a good look to give us a big storm.
Add at least 3-3.5 weeks onto Jan 25-30 & that’s about how long I suspect this is gonna last. We might be able to turn the tables in our favor sometime around the last week of February or early March, but I just don’t see a legit good pattern showing up between now and then.
I don’t think winter is over by any means, seems like it’s going to procrastinate down to the very last minute
Add at least 3-3.5 weeks onto Jan 25-30 & that’s about how long I suspect this is gonna last. We might be able to turn the tables in our favor sometime around the last week of February or early March, but I just don’t see a legit good pattern showing up between now and then.
I don’t think winter is over by any means, seems like it’s going to procrastinate down to the very last minute
Oconeexman
Member
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Frothy 23 this morning..a little taste of spring this week esp down in Brunswick!
HurricaneSolomon
Member
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- Dec 6, 2021
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Yeah I was thinking the same. Even in nature there doesn’t seem to be any rush to prepare for anything cold or stormy. I saw some mention if we were to get any type of winter weather it would be a CAD event and we sometimes score there. The wait and see game continues.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Most likely gonna need the wavelengths to shorten a lot late Feb or early March to break down the canonical Nina/-PNA look
Lol at the mower ad. They know what's coming
What if the AK ridge builds more poleward …we could time something up. Throw us a bone. ?
I feel like this is the look models were trying to give us before it got cold around Christmas. Especially in regards to the pacific.
Thor
Member
Chilly evening.
Led to a frosty morning here in Orlando
Led to a frosty morning here in Orlando
Six Mile Wx
Member
The typical 30 days for cold to return Dec. 24 - Jan 24
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Be careful what you wish for. That might make the -PNA even stronger than it's already going to be if the center of the ridge anomaly doesn't move into at least northern Alaska
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The GEFS extended + ECMWF weeklies going thru mid February make a lot of sense to me in the context of ENSO, subseasonal variability, and just stereotypical planetary wave evolution.
I think this -PNA transitions to more of a +EPO look as we go from early to mid February. Any cold air off to our NW probably gets increasingly bottled up into Alaska + western Canada & the SE US ridge flexes up the East Coast as the first half of February wears on, very typical of La Nina Februarys.
I honestly can't think of a much uglier look than this for the first half of February, but I'm not too surprised by it either given all of these things have seemed pretty evident to me for several weeks. This is the part of the winter where not being in an El Nino often comes back to bite you.
Winter isn't quite over yet tho imho
I think this -PNA transitions to more of a +EPO look as we go from early to mid February. Any cold air off to our NW probably gets increasingly bottled up into Alaska + western Canada & the SE US ridge flexes up the East Coast as the first half of February wears on, very typical of La Nina Februarys.
I honestly can't think of a much uglier look than this for the first half of February, but I'm not too surprised by it either given all of these things have seemed pretty evident to me for several weeks. This is the part of the winter where not being in an El Nino often comes back to bite you.
Winter isn't quite over yet tho imho
NoSnowATL
Member
Too early to look at next winter projections?
AJ1013
Member
Forecast bust here. Low was 43F instead of 40F. Lame.
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Hit a surprising low of 21 here. I dripped faucets when I went to bed as it was already below my forecast low of 27. Zapped some bugs maybe!
27 this morning, and stayed up and kept us from really bottoming out. Oh well tonight should be just as cold or cooler