In Orlando for the week, so no chair pics for the Thursday blizzard! ?
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Pattern Jammin January 2023
- Thread starter Goose88
- Start date
rburrel2
Member
Somewhere in between the euro and gfs could yield a winter storm for us around day 9/10. Euro has ridge too far East! Good sign when all other models have it too far west.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
MJO or not, we're generally pretty screwed in early-mid February; SE ridge on steroids.
Sure, we could sneak a winter storm by a stroke of amazing unforeseen synoptic luck, but I'd probably punt this winter until at least Feb 20th outside the mountains if you're looking for a consistently decent pattern
Sure, we could sneak a winter storm by a stroke of amazing unforeseen synoptic luck, but I'd probably punt this winter until at least Feb 20th outside the mountains if you're looking for a consistently decent pattern
rburrel2
Member
Respectfully, I’ll pass on punting 4 weeks of winter starting mid January. Especially when ensemble means are showing mostly average height anamolies for us with plenty of precipitation.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
You mean mostly above average.
tennessee storm
Member
Look like it be more a severe weather n big rain maker
Snownut
Member
Idc what anything shows anyone that punts a whole month of Winter away has lost their Frigging minds. That's just crazy when anyone knows weather and Model data can change in a hurry!
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rburrel2
Member
No, I mean average. 00z EPS out to 360hrs looking at 500mb height... if you look from day 7 until the end fo the run my backyard has 16 segments that are neutral, 10 that are just one or two anomalies above average, and 5 days that are one or two anomalies below average.
It's fine if you want to think we torch, and maybe we do... you have made some good points. But the ensembles are not even close to showing a torch in the viewable range right now. A torch is getting under a ridge like you see the in the gulf of alaska on this map. Being one anomaly above normal on a 300hr ensemble mean is not torchy.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I hear this all the time from my friends and colleagues. Unfortunately, I think a lot of people here have been in denial for weeks and don’t objectively look at things/ let their own desire for snow/cold muddle how they perceive the extended range. I know very well what I’m doing and we’ll revisit this in several weeks.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This whole post just sounds like wishcasting.
Snownut
Member
Yeah and I know good and well you've been wrong before too quit a bit actually. I don't care how much you know what you're doing you don't always get it right.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Sounds like more wishcasting to me. This objectively isn’t a good pattern we’re going into and it’s not going to get any better for the foreseeable future/next several weeks.
Why do you get so upset when people think positive?
Flotown
Member
iowa gonna be the place to be
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I’m just trying to set folks straight and give them a dose of reality. “Always being positive” leads to wishcasting and in some cases just flat out denial. That’s fine and all but it’s hard to be objective with that kind of mindset.
If things looked good going forward, I’d be certain to let you know about it like I did in November and December when a legit pattern did show up (but we failed to capitalize)
tennessee storm
Member
100 percent agree with u webber. as long these storms keep slamming the west coast. winter will be hard to get anywhere east of the ms river. pattern forward looks very la ninish to me. as we go forward i only see the se ridge get even stronger.
Welcome to the land of CAD we’re going to see a lot of it in this pattern
GFS ? 3xstorms! 
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Just gonna leave this here as a little reminder that snow is never too far away. Even during a warm pattern. No wet chairs here!
Forgive me but I don't see any CAD nor any precursor for CAD in that still snap.