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Tropical Hurricane Zeta

ForsythSnow said:
NAM is all about those 60 to 70 mph gusts across N GA. I'm not familiar with how the 3KM NAM fares with winds. Is it the same as the Euro where it's overblown?
Click to expand...

The Euro is 20-30 to high in my experience and along with the HRRR are the worst....NAM and GFS are better but still tend to be `15-20 to high most of the time......actually so far this cane season the ICON has been the closest IMO...
 
ForsythSnow said:
NAM is all about those 60 to 70 mph gusts across N GA. I'm not familiar with how the 3KM NAM fares with winds. Is it the same as the Euro where it's overblown?
Click to expand...

Oftentimes it seems to be about 15-20% too high with the wind gusts it shows. It isn't as extreme as the Euro but still is a bit high usually.
 
Recon making one last pass before landfall.
recon_AF309-1728A-ZETA.png
 
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
440 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

Very busy morning, will try to summarize forecast thoughts. Zeta is
intensifying rapidly last 6-12 hours, now down to 975mb and 100 mph
max sustained winds. Expect another bump up to our forecast winds
around 5PM today. With the extremely fast forward speed of Zeta as
it rockets through are area, rainfall will come down hard but not
persist as long as we saw with Delta. However, it will enhance winds
to the south of the track. Guidance from NHC and our tools have been
handling this depiction of the wind field reasonably well but could
be slightly stronger winds to the south of the track and weaker to
the north over far NW GA. Not taking chances with messaging and
terrain in NW GA so tropical storm warnings will continue over all
of NW 1/2 of CWA. Will monitor for further southward expansion if
tropical storm force wind field broadens in future updates.

As mentioned, flash flooding threat remains very high even with fast
storm movement. Early morning rainfall really overproduced with 2-
3.5 inches seen in 3hrs or so in a stripe from Floyd to Gilmer to
the far NE counties. Rivers/creeks responded but nothing threatening
flood stage yet. If a heavy rain swath hits this same area after
midnight, significant flash flooding will occur.

Finally, tornado threat still very-much in play tonight, in spite of
TC tornado climatology minimized 06Z-15Z. Sfc dewpoints already in
low 70s so SBCAPE will stay sufficiently high (500-1000 J/kg) with
low CIN and increasingly favorable low level shear. 12Z HREF probs
of STP>1 not super high but pretty high for overnight and again
middle GA Thurs afternoon. Fcst UH shows rotating storms possible 07-
12Z north GA but not so much over middle GA Thurs afternoon.

Final positive of fast motion is threats should dissipate quickly
after 00Z Friday. Are we done with the tropical season yet?

SNELSON
 
446
URNT15 KNHC 282042
AF309 1728A ZETA HDOB 32 20201028
203330 2837N 09021W 6971 03002 9870 +101 +094 225092 093 067 000 00
203400 2838N 09023W 6972 02993 9856 +108 +089 233096 097 074 000 00
203430 2839N 09024W 6971 02981 9837 +116 +090 238100 102 081 000 03
203500 2840N 09025W 6970 02976 9831 +114 +091 239103 104 078 000 03
203530 2841N 09026W 6973 02967 9819 +115 +095 238105 106 079 000 03
203600 2842N 09027W 6965 02968 9806 +121 +091 235106 107 078 000 03
203630 2843N 09028W 6970 02961 9786 +134 +105 234100 106 082 000 03
203700 2845N 09029W 6974 02945 9765 +145 +102 240092 097 082 000 00
203730 2846N 09030W 6971 02942 9758 +145 +089 244090 091 078 000 03
203800 2847N 09031W 6967 02933 9742 +147 +093 241081 092 076 000 03
203830 2849N 09032W 6978 02916 9737 +143 +097 238065 071 076 000 00
203900 2850N 09033W 6969 02915 9715 +154 +095 230064 066 064 003 00
203930 2852N 09034W 6975 02899 9703 +160 +086 226057 062 042 001 00
204000 2853N 09035W 6975 02892 9689 +166 +081 222047 054 032 000 00
204030 2854N 09037W 6974 02882 9674 +174 +072 228036 043 036 000 03
204100 2855N 09038W 6971 02889 9676 +170 +076 239028 034 065 004 03
204130 2857N 09039W 6974 02886 9673 +170 +088 234020 025 023 000 03
204200 2858N 09040W 6967 02890 9672 +169 +088 231010 016 023 000 03
204230 2900N 09042W 6974 02884 9683 +159 +095 210007 009 017 000 03
204300 2900N 09043W 6974 02889 9678 +169 +089 346009 015 024 000 00
$$
;
Pressure at 967.2 mb.
 
Jrips2710 said:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
440 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

Very busy morning, will try to summarize forecast thoughts. Zeta is
intensifying rapidly last 6-12 hours, now down to 975mb and 100 mph
max sustained winds. Expect another bump up to our forecast winds
around 5PM today. With the extremely fast forward speed of Zeta as
it rockets through are area, rainfall will come down hard but not
persist as long as we saw with Delta. However, it will enhance winds
to the south of the track. Guidance from NHC and our tools have been
handling this depiction of the wind field reasonably well but could
be slightly stronger winds to the south of the track and weaker to
the north over far NW GA. Not taking chances with messaging and
terrain in NW GA so tropical storm warnings will continue over all
of NW 1/2 of CWA. Will monitor for further southward expansion if
tropical storm force wind field broadens in future updates.

As mentioned, flash flooding threat remains very high even with fast
storm movement. Early morning rainfall really overproduced with 2-
3.5 inches seen in 3hrs or so in a stripe from Floyd to Gilmer to
the far NE counties. Rivers/creeks responded but nothing threatening
flood stage yet. If a heavy rain swath hits this same area after
midnight, significant flash flooding will occur.

Finally, tornado threat still very-much in play tonight, in spite of
TC tornado climatology minimized 06Z-15Z. Sfc dewpoints already in
low 70s so SBCAPE will stay sufficiently high (500-1000 J/kg) with
low CIN and increasingly favorable low level shear. 12Z HREF probs
of STP>1 not super high but pretty high for overnight and again
middle GA Thurs afternoon. Fcst UH shows rotating storms possible 07-
12Z north GA but not so much over middle GA Thurs afternoon.

Final positive of fast motion is threats should dissipate quickly
after 00Z Friday. Are we done with the tropical season yet?

SNELSON
Click to expand...

I laughed at that last sentence.
 
000
URNT15 KNHC 282052
AF309 1728A ZETA HDOB 33 20201028
204330 2901N 09045W 6959 02911 9692 +159 +098 004021 026 028 001 00
204400 2901N 09047W 6980 02892 9705 +159 +109 001033 041 030 002 03
204430 2900N 09049W 6980 02909 9687 +196 +060 357045 046 /// /// 03
204500 2858N 09048W 6958 02943 9705 +179 +081 337046 049 /// /// 03
204530 2858N 09046W 6973 02907 9692 +176 +087 316030 044 014 000 03
204600 2858N 09044W 6963 02909 9675 +180 +084 282016 024 005 000 00
204630 2859N 09042W 6978 02880 9668 +178 +087 253023 024 011 000 00
204700 2859N 09039W 6967 02888 9667 +174 +089 236023 026 020 000 00
204730 2859N 09037W 6975 02878 9676 +164 +089 224028 030 021 000 00
204800 2859N 09035W 6973 02887 9692 +153 +077 220035 036 028 000 00
204830 2859N 09033W 6967 02893 9697 +151 +081 214038 041 036 000 00
204900 2859N 09030W 6981 02879 9701 +148 +092 211045 048 051 000 03
204930 2859N 09028W 6970 02900 9712 +143 +098 207049 055 069 000 00
205000 2859N 09026W 6973 02907 9719 +142 +101 205060 065 071 000 03
205030 2859N 09024W 6974 02911 9732 +140 +103 209072 078 086 000 03
205100 2859N 09022W 6963 02933 9756 +125 +108 212087 095 087 000 00
205130 2858N 09020W 6984 02916 9774 +116 +110 212104 105 088 000 05
205200 2857N 09018W 6976 02937 //// +106 //// 214111 115 085 000 05
205230 2857N 09016W 6971 02957 //// +105 //// 216111 113 086 003 01
205300 2856N 09014W 6962 02978 //// +106 //// 217107 112 085 002 01
$$
;
Pressure down to 966.7 mb and flight-level winds up to 115 kts.
 
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