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Tropical Hurricane Sally

Looks like SW shear this AM. TWC says it will accelerate as it gets further N into GA, and that will save GA and Carolinas from disastrous flooding
 
ForsythSnow said:
Sally seems to be a bit better on recon's first pass this morning. Pressure is also falling now. Extraps in the upper 970s vs low 980s
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This morning 6z has her dropping about 12 mb lower. This is very possible given how the storm is improving atm
 
GaWx said:
My wild guess is for it to be a little stronger than Gordon of 2018, which was at a similar strength at this point. It was also going over similarly very warm 30C SSTs and had similar shear to deal with. The track was very similar and it was also during the heart of the season. Gordon ended up at 70 mph at peak, which included landfall strength. I'm guessing Sally will peak as a cat 1 around 85 mph with very heavy rainfall from a slow mover being the biggest danger.

If she weren't as sheared as she is now, I might have gone near 100 mph/cat 2. Regardless, even then flooding from rainfall would likely still have been the biggest danger. And I'm not saying 100 mph is impossible. I'm saying I'm not expecting it to be that strong as of now.

Gordon of 2018:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Gordon_(2018)
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Bump. I should have gone with 100 mph max strength when offshore instead of 85. Otherwise, it being back down to a cat 1 H isn’t surprising with it being a very slow mover when looking back at history. The extremely heavy rainfall well inland is still looking to be the biggest overall impact imo. The storm’s own wake along in some cases with somewhat drier air from nearby land normally starts to work against a H getting stronger when moving very slowly just offshore. However, the very long duration of surge along with very long periods of solid TS force to cat 1 H winds along and near the coast are/will also still be a big story. We’ll have to wait til landfall to know the final result on strength obviously as nothing is set in stone. But TS force winds for a very long period can easily have more impact than stronger winds from a faster moving storm. In addition, storm surge can be higher from a somewhat weaker but very slow mover vs a stronger faster mover because of the many hours of water being pushed ashore.

The peak strength at landfall does not tell the whole story. The significance of very long duration often trumps the significance of landfall strength and not necessarily just because of heavier rainfall.
 
Brent said:
Down to 80

Definitely gonna be a water storm
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Still major impacts regardless. That slight weakening of the highest winds is not that important imo. Even if it weakens further before LF.
 
accu35 said:
Looks like the center is firing up storms. Wouldn't be surprise if theres an uptick in intensity right at before LF.
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Most models have been showing a uptick before landfall


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accu35 said:
Looks like the center is firing up storms. Wouldn't be surprise if theres an uptick in intensity right at before LF.
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The only way this strengthens is if it moves NE prior to lf and soon, this would lessen the effects of shear and get it away from what is most likely cooling waters. Either way, proximity to land, some dry air intrusion, slow movement all are against any uptick in intensity.
 
metwannabe said:
The only way this strengthens is if it moves NE prior to lf and soon, this would lessen the effects of shear and get it away from what is most likely cooling waters. Either way, proximity to land, some dry air intrusion, slow movement all are against any uptick in intensity.
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It's probably not even a hurricane anymore looking at recon anyway I bet it stays around 75-85 mph generously unless some better reports come in
 
GaWx said:
And it won't be over for several days. Based on model consensus as well as NWS forecasts, ATL is facing a decent chance for a top 10 wettest tropical system going back to 1879 and top 3 or higher for Sep, alone! More later if I get some time.
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Yeah, the flood watches came up about an hour ago for Wednesday noon through Friday in Atlanta.
 
The 15 tropical cyclones that have produced ~5"+ rain in ATL since 1879:

Storm/rain/month/landfall strength/strength at nearest to ATL/slow or not slow mover approaching ATL

1) Opal of 1995: 8.89”/OCT/cat. 3/TS/not slow
2) #2 of 1916: 8.26”/JUL/cat.3/TD/slow
3) Alberto of 1994: 7.92”/JUL/TS/TD/slow
4) #4 of 1887: 7.90”/JUL/cat. 1/TS/slow
5) Dennis of 2005: 6.86”/JUL/cat. 3/far away/not slow
6) #2 of 1948: 6.69”/JUL/TS/TD/slow
7) Flossy of 1956: 5.73”/SEP/cat. 1/far away/not slow
8) #3 of 1940: 5.67”/AUG/cat. 1/TS/slow
9) Cindy of 2005: 5.24”/JUL/cat.1/TD/not slow
10) #1 of 1896: 5.18”/JUL/cat. 2/TS/not slow
11) Ivan of 2004: 5.08”/SEP/cat.3/TS/not slow
12) #3 of 1885: 5.06”/AUG/TS/far away/not slow
13) #11 of 1932: 4.92”/OCT/TS/TS/not slow
14) Jeanne of 2004: 4.89”/SEP/cat. 3/TD/not slow
15) Ida of 2009: 4.87”/NOV/TS/ETD/slow

Note that only 3 SEP storms are on here with Flossy of 1956 the highest at 5.73". It's not at all out of the realm of possibilities that this could be exceeded, which would make Sally THE wettest SEP TC at ATL on record!
 
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Went to bed early last night because shear was clearly punctuating Sally's core. Shear doesn't look to be affecting Sally as much as it did last night, and there doesn't appear to be any noticeable signs of disruption on Satellite. Last night Sally's circulation looked to be elongated, but borticity seems to have bundled up as higher and lower clouds seems to be spinning in tandem. I actually think she might strengthen a tad bit more this evening, and as a consequence, she will move faster towards the coast.
 
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