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Tropical Hurricane Sally

Sally fortunately still doesn’t look like it is on the verge of anything approaching rapid intensification based on it still looking sheared pretty decently to the east in vis loops but of course that can still change later.
 
GaWx said:
Sally fortunately still doesn’t look like it is on the verge of anything approaching rapid intensification based on it still looking sheared pretty decently to the east in vis loops but of course that can still change later.
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Yeah giving it's already a 60 mph storm later today it suppose to start strengthening as shear relaxes than I believe she will go from 60 to 90 in a heart beat
 
Meanwhile, 12z HMON coming in much further east than 6z
hmon_ref_19L_9.png
 
accu35 said:
Yeah giving it's already a 60 mph storm later today it suppose to start strengthening as shear relaxes than I believe she will go from 60 to 90 in a heart beat
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HMON build most of the intensification throughout the day tomorrow....worse news if it starts sooner than that.....
 
I think a cat 2 is still a good bet at landfall probably 100mph Hurricane


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Jessy89 said:
I think a cat 2 is still a good bet at landfall probably 100mph Hurricane


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My wild guess is for it to be a little stronger than Gordon of 2018, which was at a similar strength at this point. It was also going over similarly very warm 30C SSTs and had similar shear to deal with. The track was very similar and it was also during the heart of the season. Gordon ended up at 70 mph at peak, which included landfall strength. I'm guessing Sally will peak as a cat 1 around 85 mph with very heavy rainfall from a slow mover being the biggest danger.

If she weren't as sheared as she is now, I might have gone near 100 mph/cat 2. Regardless, even then flooding from rainfall would likely still have been the biggest danger. And I'm not saying 100 mph is impossible. I'm saying I'm not expecting it to be that strong as of now.

Gordon of 2018:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Gordon_(2018)
 
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