• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Hurricane Sally

00z Icon....964....slightly west of its 18z position. But it was already east of other models.

ScreenshotCapture_2020_09_13_23_13_56_813.jpg
 
Another side effect to a stall and NE movement is that it will allow for less weakening due to landfall before NE acceleration. That will put the risk of inland wind damage higher and across more area.
 
Good god the satellite images are quite worrisome although it can be seen that it’s not fully stacked yet.. the appearance is very hurricane-esk .. this thing lines up anymore I could easily see a period of rapid intensification like we’ve seen with almost every storm that approaches the US it seems
 
ecmwf_uv850_vort_seus_4.png
Well Dang
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Good god the satellite images are quite worrisome although it can be seen that it’s not fully stacked yet.. the appearance is very hurricane-esk .. this thing lines up anymore I could easily see a period of rapid intensification like we’ve seen with almost every storm that approaches the US it seems
Click to expand...
Yeah this is kinda getting little scary, especially for my area.
 
Looks to me like this thing will barely make CAT 1 at landfall because of increasing westerly shear and land interaction later. Could strengthen for most of today up to 80mph top winds and a barometric pressure of 980 but will then either stabilize or even weaken slightly. Biggest problem is seeing what happens after landfall in regards to its speed of movement possibly slowing to a crawl and dumping copious raind from Fl to La.
 
Sorry Mods, not sure where to post my local thoughts.

Rain totals continue to go up across the Carolinas later this week. As TS Sally moves in our direction. Several models suggest that the core will remain intact through the Greenville SC, Charlotte and Raleigh areas. Rain totals around 5 inches are expected in some areas. The Euro model has bumped up totals. Breezy conditions will also be possible. Can not rule out an isolated tornado.

79373360100ef0305bab9913b177ddcc.gif



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
A few more ticks to the East and central Alabama’s rainfall totals will drop pretty big. Going to be interesting watching the minor adjustments leading up to landfall, it will have large affects on where that strip of heavy rainfall and flooding will be.
 
Parker said:
A few more ticks to the East and central Alabama’s rainfall totals will drop pretty big. Going to be interesting watching the minor adjustments leading up to landfall, it will have large affects on where that strip of heavy rainfall and flooding will be.
Click to expand...
I'm pretty sure at this point Alabama will see major flooding even if it tracks a little east. It would take a Florida panhandle for Bama to escape the rains and MS is the sweet spot for landfall as of now or Mobile.
 
CADEffect said:
Sorry Mods, not sure where to post my local thoughts.

Rain totals continue to go up across the Carolinas later this week. As TS Sally moves in our direction. Several models suggest that the core will remain intact through the Greenville SC, Charlotte and Raleigh areas. Rain totals around 5 inches are expected in some areas. The Euro model has bumped up totals. Breezy conditions will also be possible. Can not rule out an isolated tornado.

79373360100ef0305bab9913b177ddcc.gif



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Right here is just fine, it's all Sally related and I agree going to be some nice totals throughout the SE, especially as it starts to interact with the trough. Models usually under perform or at least play catch up with totals.
 
accu35 said:
I'm pretty sure at this point Alabama will see major flooding even if it tracks a little east. It would take a Florida panhandle for Bama to escape the rains and MS is the sweet spot for landfall as of now or Mobile.
Click to expand...

I am strictly speaking for my area (Bham area). Won’t take much of change in track to increase or decrease totals. South central Alabama is another story.
 
I'm wondering how much CAD sets up north and west of the track. GFS shows a large wedge area through the Carolinas into NE Ga were temps stay in the 60s (Thursday afternoon). Most other models show very little CAD; but maybe if we get the storm to run father east and south the GFS wins.
 
hrrr_ref_frzn_seus_20.png
HRRR seems to have the idea of turning north before approaching east Louisiana. That would have more water time to strengthen without land interaction from the Louisiana. Most if not all models have it missing Louisiana and going straight towards MS/AL
 
FallsLake said:
I'm wondering how much CAD sets up north and west of the track. GFS shows a large wedge area through the Carolinas into NE Ga were temps stay in the 60s (Thursday afternoon). Most other models show very little CAD; but maybe if we get the storm to run father east and south the GFS wins.
Click to expand...
Euro shows it somewhat also with upper 50's DPs down into NE Ga.... that boundary will probably be a focal point of some significant rainfall totals.

1600090821751.png
 
metwannabe said:
Funny that the 12k NAM barely makes LF and crawls east through the Fl panhandle while the 3k NAM makes LF and moves inland up into MS
Click to expand...
Yeah past few runs had both of those models doing that. I say MS/AL is a good bet on LF
 
CADEffect said:
Sorry Mods, not sure where to post my local thoughts.

Rain totals continue to go up across the Carolinas later this week. As TS Sally moves in our direction. Several models suggest that the core will remain intact through the Greenville SC, Charlotte and Raleigh areas. Rain totals around 5 inches are expected in some areas. The Euro model has bumped up totals. Breezy conditions will also be possible. Can not rule out an isolated tornado.

79373360100ef0305bab9913b177ddcc.gif



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I think those totals are a little underdone in the NC foothills and mountains. E, SE ,S flow , and slow movement, it could get ugly there!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top