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Tropical Hurricane Sally

Gonna be a slight east adjustment to the track again and lot of that to do with the center reforming east

A recent fix from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicates that the center has reformed to the
east of the previous estimated location, beneath the burst of
deep convection.
The general trend in the guidance has
been eastward for the past few cycles, and the NHC forecast has been
nudged in that direction and lies between the GFS and ECMWF models
but a little west of the various consensus aids.
 
Tarheel1 said:
I think those totals are a little underdone in the NC foothills and mountains. E, SE ,S flow , and slow movement, it could get ugly there!
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Actually thinking the opposite, this could largely rain itself out along the coast. And the flow isn’t the best for NC I will be on western side of the cyclone and much further north. If anything, this setup screams much colder wedge to me. It’s still gonna rain tho but doesn’t look impressive for what it’s doing now.
 
Yeah I was just about to say that Sally might be a 'cane now based off the recon information that I was reading on storm2k.
 
ForsythSnow said:
That extrapolated pressure though. 983 so probably round up to 986. Significant drop from 991 last pass regardless.
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It's tough to tell until we get a VDM for sure since this is a different plane. Pressure is likely in the mid to upper 980s though I would say 985mb based on radar and satellite presentation. Looks like the other plane is lined up for a SW to NE pass.
 
Now a hurricane.
000
WTNT64 KNHC 141602
TCUAT4

Hurricane Sally Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
1100 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT SALLY HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED
TO A HURRICANE...

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Sally
indicate the system has rapidly strengthened to a hurricane,
with maximum sustained winds of around 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09
inches).

A Special Advisory will be issued shortly to update the intensity
forecast for Sally.


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM CDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 86.9W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
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They went with 985 MB and upgraded to a hurricane.

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT SALLY HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED TO A HURRICANE...
11:00 AM CDT Mon Sep 14
Location: 28.6°N 86.9°W
Moving: WNW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 985 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Actually thinking the opposite, this could largely rain itself out along the coast. And the flow isn’t the best for NC I will be on western side of the cyclone and much further north. If anything, this setup screams much colder wedge to me. It’s still gonna rain tho but doesn’t look impressive for what it’s doing now.
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I think it will be a big flood threat for the southern NC mountains, southern foothills, and southern Piedmont and upstate of SC. The Euro has 3-6 inches of rain for those areas and the wedge boundary close by could enhance rainfall as the center is moving through Central GA. How far north the heaviest rains get might depend on the interaction with the approaching front from the west. Gulf tropical systems tend to have the heaviest rain shield to the north and northwest of the center once it’s been inland for a few hours
 
So with the warm water that she is in how much RI is going to occur?

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk
 
Pretty good eye showing on radar! Could make run at Cat 3, if this keeps up!
 
12z NAM...976......coming in on Tuesday night....
12z GFS..970..... coming in same time.
12z ICON 978....NOON on Wed.


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Fisherman said:
Now sally is at 90mph Just updated winds this has gone 65 a couple hours ago to 90 mph this thing is intensifying quick?
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Yep, Postel on TWC , used the term RI
 
I think some people may be caught off guard with the intensity and have to scramble to leave at the last minute, with RI and the shifts E, think there was a little too much focus on New Orleans area! It stayed a weak TS storm for a few days, people were complacent!
 
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