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Tropical Hurricane Sally

Special TWO Code Red

Updated: Shower and thunderstorm activity located over the
northwestern and central Bahamas and the adjacent waters continues
to shows signs of organization. In addition, surface observations
indicate that pressures have fallen over the area since yesterday
and, along with wind data, suggest that a broad area of low pressure
could be forming between the northwestern Bahamas and South Florida.
This system is forecast to move westward at about 10 mph, crossing
the Bahamas and Florida today and tonight and moving into the
eastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The disturbance could become a
tropical depression while it is near South Florida tonight, but it
is more likely to become a tropical depression while it moves slowly
west-northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend and
early next week. Regardless of development, this system is expected
to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of the Bahamas,
South Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days,
and interests there, as well as along the northern and eastern Gulf
coast, should monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
 
I bet a PTC is coming

Shower and thunderstorm activity located over the northwestern and
central Bahamas and the adjacent waters continues to shows signs of
organization. In addition, surface observations indicate that
pressures have fallen over the area since yesterday and, along with
wind and satellite data, suggest that a broad area of low pressure
could be forming between the northwestern Bahamas and South Florida.
This system is forecast to move westward at about 10 mph, and it
could become a tropical depression while it is near South Florida
tonight. But if not, the disturbance is expected to become a
tropical depression while it moves slowly west-northwestward over
the northeastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week.
Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce
locally heavy rainfall over portions of the Bahamas, South Florida,
and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days, and interests
there, as well as along the northern and eastern Gulf coast, should
monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
 
Looking at some data and its safe to assume that this invest will be a forefront of a pattern change across the East coast.
 
The 12Z EPS is much more active than any prior EPS with a very slow moving TD/TS+ likely creating big problems due to very heavy rainfall centered on the coasts of MS, AL and the FL Panhandle.
 
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