Special TWO Code Red
Updated: Shower and thunderstorm activity located over the
northwestern and central Bahamas and the adjacent waters continues
to shows signs of organization. In addition, surface observations
indicate that pressures have fallen over the area since yesterday
and, along with wind data, suggest that a broad area of low pressure
could be forming between the northwestern Bahamas and South Florida.
This system is forecast to move westward at about 10 mph, crossing
the Bahamas and Florida today and tonight and moving into the
eastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The disturbance could become a
tropical depression while it is near South Florida tonight, but it
is more likely to become a tropical depression while it moves slowly
west-northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend and
early next week. Regardless of development, this system is expected
to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of the Bahamas,
South Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days,
and interests there, as well as along the northern and eastern Gulf
coast, should monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.