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Tropical Hurricane Sally

Special TWO Code Red

Updated: Shower and thunderstorm activity located over the
northwestern and central Bahamas and the adjacent waters continues
to shows signs of organization. In addition, surface observations
indicate that pressures have fallen over the area since yesterday
and, along with wind data, suggest that a broad area of low pressure
could be forming between the northwestern Bahamas and South Florida.
This system is forecast to move westward at about 10 mph, crossing
the Bahamas and Florida today and tonight and moving into the
eastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The disturbance could become a
tropical depression while it is near South Florida tonight, but it
is more likely to become a tropical depression while it moves slowly
west-northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend and
early next week. Regardless of development, this system is expected
to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of the Bahamas,
South Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days,
and interests there, as well as along the northern and eastern Gulf
coast, should monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
 
I bet a PTC is coming

Shower and thunderstorm activity located over the northwestern and
central Bahamas and the adjacent waters continues to shows signs of
organization. In addition, surface observations indicate that
pressures have fallen over the area since yesterday and, along with
wind and satellite data, suggest that a broad area of low pressure
could be forming between the northwestern Bahamas and South Florida.
This system is forecast to move westward at about 10 mph, and it
could become a tropical depression while it is near South Florida
tonight. But if not, the disturbance is expected to become a
tropical depression while it moves slowly west-northwestward over
the northeastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week.
Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce
locally heavy rainfall over portions of the Bahamas, South Florida,
and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days, and interests
there, as well as along the northern and eastern Gulf coast, should
monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
 
Looking at some data and its safe to assume that this invest will be a forefront of a pattern change across the East coast.
 
The 12Z EPS is much more active than any prior EPS with a very slow moving TD/TS+ likely creating big problems due to very heavy rainfall centered on the coasts of MS, AL and the FL Panhandle.
 
Certainly starting to look good on satellite recon data should be interesting but it looks like they are going tomorrow
 
The 12Z EPS has a whopping 8” of rainfall along parts of the coast of the FL Panhandle! That’s a ton coming from a 51 member ensemble and implies a serious flooding threat may be on the way for especially E LA to the FL Panhandle, especially along and near the coast, due to the potential of a very slow mover.
 
PTC coming

Special Message from NHC Issued 11 Sep 2020 20:19 UTC
NHC will initiate advisories on the area of low pressure area east of Florida at 5 PM EDT (2100 UTC).
 
Straight to TD 19

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020
2100 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA FROM SOUTH OF JUPITER INLET TO NORTH OF OCEAN
REEF.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF JUPITER INLET TO NORTH OF OCEAN REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
6 TO 12 HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD ALSO BE MONITORING
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES
COULD BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THAT AREA LATER TONIGHT OR ON
SATURDAY.
 
70 mph peak

205735_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

The first forecast will stay conservative and only show a peak intensity of 60 kt in 3 to 4 days, but do not be surprised if that is revised upward on later forecasts once other models better initialize the depression.
 
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Danger, danger Will Robinson! Get the boats ready along the Gulf coast. This, from the 12Z EPS, is one real ugly precip map, especially considering this is from a 51 member ensemble. Hopefully this changes for the better:

a6lgJQe.png
 
Zander98al said:
Going to be at gulf shores when this comes through ?
Click to expand...
We have been there during a couple of tropical storms. Kinda neat really for a weather enthusiast. Wind and waves were awesome to see as long as there is no serious flooding or tornadoes. In our case the weather cleared the next day each time and was nice the rest of the week.
 
Brent said:
70 mph peak

View attachment 48334

The first forecast will stay conservative and only show a peak intensity of 60 kt in 3 to 4 days, but do not be surprised if that is revised upward on later forecasts once other models better initialize the depression.
Click to expand...
That track is as doomsday a track for surge into NOLA as it gets. Would push lake ponchatrain right down into NO as well as surge right up the river. Cat 2 to cat 3 low end would not be pretty just because of the angle.
 
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