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Tropical Hurricane Sally

Henry2326 said:
I tell ya what.....you post whatever you like....from now on. Have fun with it.
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I for one appreciate all the model maps you post. The 3km Nam is useful imo for track shifts/trends and intensity changes at times as well.

Back to the discussion, I’m guessing the overall intensity change on the 6z runs of the HWRF/HMON was likely due to this taking a bit longer to organize. It may just run out of time before it can get going which would be good news for the gulf coast.
 
If you look at the tampa radar the center is roughly 150 miles west of Tampa with a couple of banding features but as a whole the bigger mass of convection is SE of the LLC.KTBW - Super-Res Reflectivity Tilt 1, 9_26 AM.png
Until convection wraps around the core anything more than dropping a few MB per day isn't likely. With this current structure it could make a run at low end lopsided CAT1 but the ceiling isn't that high. The concern is as it approaches the gulf coast shear might abate just enough so that we get a more concentric deepening system. It wouldn't take much to go from a high end ts low end cane 12 hrs before landfall to a 110-120mph cane
 
Storm5 said:
06z nam is way east of other guidance


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12Z coming in has it now something like SW of the guidance? Lol it can't decide.
namconus_ref_frzn_seus_37.png
 
Theres not a really good consistent pinpoint landfall yet as Sally slows down and wonders around. I say far east Louisiana and MS is a good bet for a direct LF. Who know??
 
It looks to remain a moderate hurricane for now. The best case scenario for NOLA. I hope it curves toward the upstate. We need some rain.


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Is it just me or do the models have a harder time predicting the strength of hurricanes and where landfall will be the last few years?
 
Sally fortunately still doesn’t look like it is on the verge of anything approaching rapid intensification based on it still looking sheared pretty decently to the east in vis loops but of course that can still change later.
 
GaWx said:
Sally fortunately still doesn’t look like it is on the verge of anything approaching rapid intensification based on it still looking sheared pretty decently to the east in vis loops but of course that can still change later.
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Yeah giving it's already a 60 mph storm later today it suppose to start strengthening as shear relaxes than I believe she will go from 60 to 90 in a heart beat
 
Meanwhile, 12z HMON coming in much further east than 6z
hmon_ref_19L_9.png
 
accu35 said:
Yeah giving it's already a 60 mph storm later today it suppose to start strengthening as shear relaxes than I believe she will go from 60 to 90 in a heart beat
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HMON build most of the intensification throughout the day tomorrow....worse news if it starts sooner than that.....
 
I think a cat 2 is still a good bet at landfall probably 100mph Hurricane


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Jessy89 said:
I think a cat 2 is still a good bet at landfall probably 100mph Hurricane


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My wild guess is for it to be a little stronger than Gordon of 2018, which was at a similar strength at this point. It was also going over similarly very warm 30C SSTs and had similar shear to deal with. The track was very similar and it was also during the heart of the season. Gordon ended up at 70 mph at peak, which included landfall strength. I'm guessing Sally will peak as a cat 1 around 85 mph with very heavy rainfall from a slow mover being the biggest danger.

If she weren't as sheared as she is now, I might have gone near 100 mph/cat 2. Regardless, even then flooding from rainfall would likely still have been the biggest danger. And I'm not saying 100 mph is impossible. I'm saying I'm not expecting it to be that strong as of now.

Gordon of 2018:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Gordon_(2018)
 
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