Tropical Hurricane Sally

[snowlover91]

I tell ya what.....you post whatever you like....from now on. Have fun with it.

I for one appreciate all the model maps you post. The 3km Nam is useful imo for track shifts/trends and intensity changes at times as well.

Back to the discussion, I’m guessing the overall intensity change on the 6z runs of the HWRF/HMON was likely due to this taking a bit longer to organize. It may just run out of time before it can get going which would be good news for the gulf coast.

 

[WXinCanton]

06z HWRF. 992 ????
06z HMON 981

What did it see to cause such a big jump from last forecast....

Reality maybe?

 

[SD]

06z HWRF. 992 ????
06z HMON 981

What did it see to cause such a big jump from last forecast....

View attachment 48448

View attachment 48449

Models are finally picking up on the LLC is outrunning the convection. The globals particularly the icon have shown the highest qpf and wind E and SE of the center right up to near landfall

 

[SD]

If you look at the tampa radar the center is roughly 150 miles west of Tampa with a couple of banding features but as a whole the bigger mass of convection is SE of the LLC.
Until convection wraps around the core anything more than dropping a few MB per day isn't likely. With this current structure it could make a run at low end lopsided CAT1 but the ceiling isn't that high. The concern is as it approaches the gulf coast shear might abate just enough so that we get a more concentric deepening system. It wouldn't take much to go from a high end ts low end cane 12 hrs before landfall to a 110-120mph cane

 

[SD]

I tell ya what.....you post whatever you like....from now on. Have fun with it.

Everything is fine.

 

[Storm5]

06z nam is way east of other guidance


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[ForsythSnow]

06z nam is way east of other guidance


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12Z coming in has it now something like SW of the guidance? Lol it can't decide.

 

[accu35]

Theres not a really good consistent pinpoint landfall yet as Sally slows down and wonders around. I say far east Louisiana and MS is a good bet for a direct LF. Who know??

 

[wxdaniel]

It looks to remain a moderate hurricane for now. The best case scenario for NOLA. I hope it curves toward the upstate. We need some rain.


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[accu35]

Sally up to 60 now. 12z Icon further east at landfall.

 

[Henry2326]

12z NAM.....looks almost exactly like 18z yesterday.....

 

[Henry2326]

 

[Henry2326]

 

[accu35]

12z RGEM FWIW further east

 

[Henry2326]

12z RGEM FWIW further east

Levi said this was a tricky forecast.....I'm believing it with the back and forth on the models.

 

[Henry2326]

12z GFS came back east......

 

[accu35]

12z gfs further east at LF and a bit stronger.

 

[accu35]

Levi said this was a tricky forecast.....I'm believing it with the back and forth on the models.

I've been saying MS is a good bet at landfall. Your right, it's a back n forth game atm.

 

[Henry2326]

I've been saying MS is a good bet at landfall. Your right, it's a back n forth game atm.

Interesting scenario for Josh.....he's usually somewhere not where he lives......

 

[Brick Tamland]

Is it just me or do the models have a harder time predicting the strength of hurricanes and where landfall will be the last few years?