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Tropical Hurricane Sally

I’m still leaning towards a window of opportunity to be a cat 2. But I definitely could be wrong. Either way the rainfall will be the biggest issue. Such a slow mover


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Just when you think Icon has lost touch, it does this....and it sits in place for about 24 hours....brutal for surge....

18z......969

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Henry2326 said:
Just when you think Icon has lost touch, it does this....and it sits in place for about 24 hours....brutal for surge....

18z......969

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To be fair it's potentially not all out in fantasy land. The moment this system slows down it's going to get organized and take off. Most guidance has it slowing down right at landfall. The key is seeing what the ICON is doing differently and seeing if it's completely lost on when it slows down or not.
 
ForsythSnow said:
To be fair it's potentially not all out in fantasy land. The moment this system slows down it's going to get organized and take off. Most guidance has it slowing down right at landfall. The key is seeing what the ICON is doing differently and seeing if it's completely lost on when it slows down or not.
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I agree with it.....I thought previous versions had lost touch.
 
The stall and the NE turn would probably be really conductive for strengthening as it would negate increasing SW shear from the approaching s/w. Would spare NO, but probably nail Mobile.
 
This storm I believe is gonna bring a catastrophic flooding event for some in the southeast. I really hope people prepare and I’m talking inland areas not just along the coast. This thing is a slow mover. Some areas is gonna see a significant rain event.


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Assuming this convection holds, this is going to look like what I was thinking probably tomorrow.

Was just thinking until the last hour or so that it was now or never, although hopefully this doesn't intensify too much, the rain side of this will be enough of a problem.
 
Henry2326 said:
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Am I missing something or shouldn’t we be seeing more rainfall modeled across the western and central NC with this sort of track indicated by the clustered plots. A slow moving TC going thru central Georgia and SC with enhancement from a cold front you would think would bring fairly significant shield of heavy rainfall to the north of the track of the center.
 
Chazwin said:
Am I missing something or shouldn’t we be seeing more rainfall modeled across the western and central NC with this sort of track indicated by the clustered plots. A slow moving TC going thru central Georgia and SC with enhancement from a cold front you would think would bring fairly significant shield of heavy rainfall to the north of the track of the center.
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You are correct and I believe modeling will catch on to it in the next day or so. The best case scenario for upstate sc western N.C. Ne Georgia would be a track across South Georgia and extreme southern sc. and that could happen however I don’t see this going to far north like into Tennessee


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Chazwin said:
Am I missing something or shouldn’t we be seeing more rainfall modeled across the western and central NC with this sort of track indicated by the clustered plots. A slow moving TC going thru central Georgia and SC with enhancement from a cold front you would think would bring fairly significant shield of heavy rainfall to the north of the track of the center.
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Upslope is going to be a big problem especially for WNC.
 
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