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Tropical Hurricane Nate

Another look at the 00z Euro winds
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I feel that Nate can be strong enough for FFC to keep the TS watch, and if Nate's wind field expands east after landfall, and is more east at landfall, it will be upgraded to a TS warning.
 
NHC will probably shift track a little west at the 11am update , not based off the NAM. But the fact they are on the east side of guidance

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Storm5 said:
NHC will probably shift track a little west at the 11am update , not based off the NAM. But the fact they are on the east side of guidance

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Your prob right, unless it keeps it north movement now. If any shift west shouldn't be much
 
Storm5 said:
These west east shifts are small at this point

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I agree and it's all a moot point for sure. Either way it's a very lopsided storm and small one. But hope many get rain. We all need it
 
Take that back. Thankfully recon is out there. Ya NNW movement still. Eastern side looks very healthy. recon_AF305-0816A-NATE.png
 
meso2_13_20171007140128.jpg
Looking healthy right now cloud top are impressive and should be strengthening little more now. Look as an eye is showing
 
Storm5 said:
These west east shifts are small at this point

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Charlie, you think my area and yours will see some great impact? Even if it hits west MS landfall?
 
How in the world is Nate getting stronger at 26 mph? Please someone
 
Hurricane Nate Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017

Nate is showing improved organization in satellite imagery this
morning, with the formation of a symmetric central dense overcast
with cloud tops colder than -80C. In addition, Air Force Reserve
and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft have reported a central pressure
near 984 mb inside a 25 n mi wide eye that is starting to form under
the overcast. The planes have reported 700-mb flight level winds of
up to 88 kt and surface wind estimates from the SFMR instrument
between 75-85 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is
increased to a possibly conservative 80 kt.

Conditions appear favorable for Nate to continue strengthening for
the next 12 h or so before it encounters land and increasing shear.
The new intensity forecast thus follows the SHIPS model in showing
Nate become a Category 2 hurricane before landfall on the central
Gulf Coast.
 
I wonder if that band draped across Cuba on the eastern side was dragging down on Nate’s organization. It seems to be stationary and slowly being left behind.
 
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