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Tropical Hurricane Nate

Overall, models has increased a little today with best at cat 1. Will see what happens when he enters the hot tub.
 
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Morgan City, Louisiana,
eastward to the Alabama/Florida border, including the northern and
western shores of Lake Pontchartrain.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Morgan City, Louisiana,
eastward to the Mississippi/Alabama border, including metropolitan
New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Mississippi/Alabama
border eastward to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line in Florida. A
Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued west of Morgan City to
Intracoastal City, Louisiana.
 
Due to low shear and very high oceanic heat content in the
northwestern Caribbean Sea, Nate should at least steadily
strengthen once it moves offshore, especially since it appears to
have a well-defined inner core. Rapid intensification is still not
out of the question
, and Nate could be near hurricane intensity by
the time it reaches the Yucatan coast in about 24 hours.
 
3k NAM down to 910
f6819cc77143698f8354db9f80ff8026.jpg


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I guess it's possible this gets to hurricane status. I'm not sure though. I could see this being a weaker messy TS. Good for rain though
 
It's not a slam dunk at all. Just look at the 00z gfs

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It's POSSIBLE it gets to 2 or 3, much less hurricane. Sure it 's not a given, but to say it's possible it could become a hurricane? Just seemed bizarre.
 
Y'all tell me how you get a hurricane out of this look. Again, not saying impossible but I don't think it's likely by any means. It looks pathetic on the euro
ecmwf_mslp_uv850_us_3.png ecmwf_mslp_uv850_us_4.png
 
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