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Tropical Hurricane Nate

Wow, Baron has the center missing Alabama
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/\ That's funny lol. This thing has the potential to get interesting. As was pointed out in the past couple of NHC discussions the SHIPS RI index is pretty high, at least to get this thing up to a cane fairly quickly. We'll see where the center ends up later tonight, early AM. If it can stay off of the Yucatan its in an area that has climo bomb potential. I'm with the slower end of the model guidance, just not seeing a real strong tug to the north if various conus forecasts are to be believed and from the steering with anything moving to the north so far this year. Good possibility IMHO that this could still be offshore in 72 hrs
 
Nate actually got as far as 50 miles inland, meaning those runs that had him just skim the coast busted, and has been inland 11 hours, which is a good reason he doesn't look as "good". He is now only 25 miles inland and will be offshore by ~midnight.
 
Jackstraw said:
/\ That's funny lol. This thing has the potential to get interesting. As was pointed out in the past couple of NHC discussions the SHIPS RI index is pretty high, at least to get this thing up to a cane fairly quickly. We'll see where the center ends up later tonight, early AM. If it can stay off of the Yucatan its in an area that has climo bomb potential. I'm with the slower end of the model guidance, just not seeing a real strong tug to the north if various conus forecasts are to be believed and from the steering with anything moving to the north so far this year. Good possibility IMHO that this could still be offshore in 72 hrs
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Levi talks about why it should start accelerating towards the coast thanks to the LLJ and the upper low....... its a great video
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blo...central-u-s-gulf-coast-by-saturday-or-sunday/
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Storm5 said:
00z NAM is trying to crank out a really healthy storm

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This really is just thinking out loud, but I tend to wonder if the NAM(not the 3km moron model) *may* have deserve a little more weight in this senario due to the possibility of this being a small to very small hurricane.
 
Arcc said:
This really is just thinking out loud, but I tend to wonder if the NAM(not the 3km moron model) *may* have deserve a little more weight in this senario due to the possibility of this being a small to very small hurricane.
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Interesting ......But does a smaller storm increase its accuracy?

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00z NAM gets down to 982.... It's its lowest run yet

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The 00z NAM is way west of previous runs . This run is very Euro like taking nate through eastern Mississippi

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