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Tropical Hurricane Nate

Damn the gfs does nothing with nate and actually it would be downgraded most likely IF the gfs verifies. Just some good ole rain I to the southeast

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Kinda impressed at the flare up of convection near the center considering Nate is barely out in open waters off the northern coast of Honduras right now. Not sure how accurate the wind shear maps from CIMSS are, but it's surprising it's able to do anything with 25-40kts of shear just northwest of where it is now. Then again we can argue it's surprising Harvey, Irma, Jose, Lee, and Maria were able to develop the way they did.
 
GFS has had storms way to strong all year, now too weak? We will see. I say it will prob be about a weak cat 1 imo
 
Brent said:
The Euro did cave to it

Just sayin :p

I know I'm shocked too

The CMC is also very weak, multiple competiting areas
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Yeah, I know. Strange times were living in right now. "Euro" and "cave" are two of the rarest words to ever repeat in the same sentence.
 
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 06.10.2017

TROPICAL STORM NATE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 83.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.10.2017 0 15.3N 83.5W 999 39
1200UTC 06.10.2017 12 18.5N 84.7W 993 40
0000UTC 07.10.2017 24 21.9N 86.5W 990 46
1200UTC 07.10.2017 36 25.6N 89.1W 983 56
0000UTC 08.10.2017 48 28.2N 90.0W 976 59
1200UTC 08.10.2017 60 30.8N 88.3W 971 52
0000UTC 09.10.2017 72 34.3N 85.0W 984 30
1200UTC 09.10.2017 84 37.7N 79.9W 996 24
0000UTC 10.10.2017 96 40.5N 73.8W 1001 39
1200UTC 10.10.2017 108 42.0N 69.1W 1004 35

UKMET much stronger



The UK is much stronger and it is further east than the consensus but there's a big initialization problem with UK and that has a lot to do with how strong it is and how far east its track is. First of all, it already had it just going offshore at 0Z (8 PM), or 4 hours early over hot water, and a whopping full degree east of where it actually was at 8 PM. UK had it at 83.5W and it was at 84.5 W per NHC! Shear is likely less there, too. Then, partially because of that too far east initialization, UK send him E of the Yucatan! So, that is another reason why it has him so strong. Can anyone think of a reason that this run shouldn't be thrown in the trash?
 
accu35 said:
Nate is firing up a bit
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The GFS/CMC don't strengthen it at all from this point on even though out over hot water while the Euro and UK do. Will the GFS/CMC score a coup or will they look stupid? We should know something within the next 6-9 hours. The current firing up is making me suspect they will look stupid but who knows?
 
GaWx said:
The GFS/CMC don't strengthen it at all from this point on even though out over hot water while the Euro and UK do. Will the GFS/CMC score a coup or will they look stupid? We should know something within the next 6-9 hours. The current firing up is making me suspect they will look stupid but who knows?
Click to expand...
096909dae2d61571a381f0211a724772b1138dba2a174da4df5dc1eae52eff15.png
 
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