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Tropical Hurricane Nate

Wow, Nate already down to 994 mb. Prob a 45/50 mph storm now.
 
Like 12Z, 0Z Euro barely misses Yuc. Stronger than GFS/CMC.

Init, ~50 miles NE of reality but much better than UK.
 
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Euro is 1000 mb just before landfall and then 993 mb over the swamp south of New Orleans

Euro appears to be stronger over Alabama than off Louisiana :rolleyes:
 
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not very excited

16_L_intensity_latest.png
 
So far 6z Nam and 6z gfs has nate stronger, lets see if he continues this trend
 
So the logic appears to be the further east it goes the stronger the solutions appear to be
 
Will be interesting to see what happens with Nate for sure. I still think this might struggle to become a hurricane, but it's possible. The stronger solution will be further east and a weak one west. Shear parameters don't look bad but not great either.
 
When I look at the satellite pic it's almost like there is too much competition for convergence. Notice how "spread" out the storms look. Need more consistent consolidated storms closer to Nate
 
Recon found 996 mb on the latest pass . Today is a big day for nate. If it does not get going today it never will

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