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Tropical Hurricane Nate

nam3km_ir_us_19.png

HUGE BLOB INCOMING NAM HR 19
 
Looks very impressive I would be surprised if there are no hurricane strength winds somewhere in there now. Likely on the RI trend given location, conditions, and current look.
 
Cloud tops so cold, that it is off the charts on the map I'm using. Seeing outflow from this convection and the center is completely buried now in cold clouds. It's either going to stop or we are about to see a hurricane and a strong one too.
 
Rapid intensification still cannot be ruled out since
the indices are showing a 50/50 chance of a 25-kt increase over
the next 24 hours. If Nate becomes a hurricane soon, then
additional increases in the official intensity forecast may be
necessary in subsequent advisories.
 
RollTide18 said:
Hmm. RI possibly happening?
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Tropical Storm Nate Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017

Recent data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance flights
indicate that Nate continues to strengthen and is near hurricane
strength. The NOAA plane measured a maximum 700-mb flight-level
wind of 75 kt, but the SFMR instruments on both planes have only
measured surface winds as high as 55 kt. It seems that the highest
winds haven't quite mixed down to the surface, but it's likely that
the system is at least producing surface winds of 60 kt, which will
be the initial intensity for this advisory. The NOAA flight also
reported that an eyewall is forming to the east of Nate's center.
 
Xtreme Weather said:
Cloud tops continues to just explode on the E side drier air almost completely out now...oh boy
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/h5-mloop-ft.html
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Decent outflow and banding. If that convection can successfully wrap around the center completely we may have a formidable hurricane on our hands. 2017 has proven itself to be the year of overachievers despite what should be challenges against it. I think 90mph cat 1 at landfall is a good call right now. I would go 100mph cat. 2 on the high end, but I don’t want to jump the gun yet.
 
A stronger system will verify to the east . So if it continues to strengthen I would expect a few more east shifts with the track

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