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Tropical Hurricane Nate

What a weird year. Two inland tropical storm watches within about a month. Very odd.


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We are under a TS Watch yet this is what it says:

WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 50 mph
 
SoutheastRidge said:
We are under a TS Watch yet this is what it says:

WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 50 mph
Click to expand...
This is the criteria for a TS Watch - "possible" is the key word:
Tropical Storm Watch: An announcement that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified coastal area within 48 hours.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/watchwarn_changes.shtml
 
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…21.4N 85.9W
ABOUT 90 MI…145 KM NE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 570 MI…915 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 22 MPH…35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…990 MB…29.23 INCHES

Little stronger per 7p advisory


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Xtreme Weather said:
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…21.4N 85.9W
ABOUT 90 MI…145 KM NE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 570 MI…915 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 22 MPH…35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…990 MB…29.23 INCHES

Little stronger per 7p advisory


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At that center position it's not going to landfall on the Yucatan

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Still seems lopsided per recon so I'm not seeing anything crazy happening

also may not be fully stacked and the fast motion will make it hard to really go off
 
Brent said:
Still seems lopsided per recon so I'm not seeing anything crazy happening

also may not be fully stacked and the fast motion will make it hard to really go off
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It will be interesting to see what happens as it completes this slingshot around the east side of the upper low. Most models have some strengthening occurring after that happens and the storm slows

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SD said:
It will be interesting to see what happens as it completes this slingshot around the east side of the upper low. Most models have some strengthening occurring after that happens and the storm slows

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if it were to slow down say to 5-10 mph i honestly believe that would be a bad situation. much more time in the bath water that the gulf has right now
 
The outflow has really been streaming out strong over the past 30 or 40 min, the storms seem to really be feeding off the deep warm waters in at least a half orderly fashion.
 
The SW is out of the way all up to Nate as to what he want to do dry air moistened up and again that sw is over by MX and E TX now shear is not present either aloft
8_E7021_FE-42_C1-4_D45-_BE87-_DBA6_B30_B4757.jpg
 
Maybe like a 12 mile SE shift on the 0z model consensus

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Xtreme Weather said:
Noticing some nice cooling top burst around the COC ESP the Southern flank and E side if this can close off wrap around the entire eye it’s game on
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Needs some work on the NE quadrant. This this is really motoring along too. It's crazy

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SD said:
Needs some work on the NE quadrant. This this is really motoring along too. It's crazy

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Yup just looking at the loop it’s tryng to wrap around though esp last 3 frames or so...this where the drier air had worked in today and give impression to some an eye was forming...
 
SD said:
Needs some work on the NE quadrant. This this is really motoring along too. It's crazy

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Saw the hurricane guy on TWC say, need to look for banding features to indicate strengthening, not pulse type blow ups at random locations.
 
Xtreme Weather said:
Yup just looking at the loop it’s tryng to wrap around though esp last 3 frames or so...this where the drier air had worked in today and give impression to some an eye was forming...
Click to expand...
Agree really looks like it's trying to get a cdo going but the fast movement makes me wonder where the center really is
Tarheel1 said:
Saw the hurricane guy on TWC say, need to look for banding features to indicate strengthening, not pulse type blow ups at random locations.
Click to expand...
If you look at microwave imagery it's got a nice area on the western half and would probably have a nice band wrapping around the storm if it didn't eat so much dry air

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My guess if we see a hurricane it will prob be a bit east of the western track imo. Still think near mobile area. Give or take east or west I would say at this point 80 mph
 
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