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Tropical Hurricane Nate

So we have GFS, Nam, UK stronger than CMC/EURO. I say cat 1 at best
 
deltadog03 said:
We shall see. I'm not sold on this becoming a hurricane. Just my opinion for sure.
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Good post. As stated elsewhere but echos my thoughts: "the thing is.. shear is not the big factor in the "sloppiness". shear really only increases just prior to landfall ( per latest models).. it is mostly the interaction with the other system that causes the pressure field to be stretched and "energy" to be lost."

In other words, that noname system that was in the Keys won't allow it to get that strong imo. Competition is good!
 
Stormlover said:
Seriously? You follow weather all year and get excited when there is a hurricane to follow or a winter storm to follow,etc....You know that.:weenie:
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What's the point, does not mean I want death and destruction. FOLLOWING a system and wanting a tropical system to strengthen and have stronger winds are two different things

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Storm5 said:
What's the point, does not mean I want death and destruction. FOLLOWING a system and wanting a tropical system to strengthen and have stronger winds are two different things

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I remember right the '93 Superstorm killed 200+. Extreme weather causes death and destruction whatever type you fancy.
 
Here's a live cam (with sound) from the Hyatt Ziva Cancun. This Hyatt is located on the eastern-most tip of the Zona Hotelera...should be interesting to monitor as Nate draws closer today.
Edit: BTW, I should mention that this camera faces northeast, with the Faro de Punta Cancun lighthouse visible to the east.
 
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Lynsy said:
Looking better to my untrained eye on satellite.
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not trying to cause any problems but this is where confusion arises in some people, to me a storm getting more powerful and dangerous is NOT "better" it is worse news.......calling it better news using english did indicate the poster desires a bigger storm.......
 
BillT said:
not trying to cause any problems but this is where confusion arises in some people, to me a storm getting more powerful and dangerous is NOT "better" it is worse news.......calling it better news using english did indicate the poster desires a bigger storm.......
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I can see one's take based on just English definitions of words but as far as discussing in weather logic we obviously understand or at least most of us understand "better" in this frame doesn't denote a desire for a stronger storm more of a observation of current health of storm....it's confusing being a weather follower haha
 
BillT said:
not trying to cause any problems but this is where confusion arises in some people, to me a storm getting more powerful and dangerous is NOT "better" it is worse news.......calling it better news using english did indicate the poster desires a bigger storm.......
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I meant the structure of the storm itself....not that it would necessarily be "better", damage and destruction wise. Apologies.

It's just that it's looked like a raggedy piece of mess imo, it's actually starting to "look better" as far as it actually is looking more like a TS now in terms of the look of the storm itself. I never said I desired a bigger storm...geezus lol. This is a weather board. This is what folks do here. We follow weather, be it tropical, tornadic, winter, etc. I didn't mean any harm. I just meant the storm itself is looking healthier on satellite.
 
Is there an eye there now or is it trying to form one? I'll be honest. I have had a hard time up until the last frames on sat seeing the center of circulation. It appears that there is one pretty evident now. (Again just imo)
 
Special Weather Statement issued by NWS Atlanta

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
308 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2017

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>073-078>082-
089>091-102-103-070600-
308 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2017

...TROPICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...

Tropical Storm Nate, currently just east of the Yucatan
penninsula of Mexico, is expected to track north-northwest across
the Gulf of Mexico through Saturday, making landfall somewhere
along the central Gulf Coast Saturday night.

The latest track from the National Hurricane Center has Nate
turning northeast across Alabama, approaching northwest Georgia by
Sunday afternoon. Based on this current forecast track, the
probability of seeing tropical storm-force wind gusts, greater
than 40 MPH, is increasing across portions of central and north
Georgia throughout Sunday. Several hours of winds of this
magnitude would be capable of bringing down trees and powerlines.
In addition to the wind, periods of heavy rain could produce 2 to
6 inches of rainfall which may result in localized flash flooding,
especially across urban and poor drainage areas. A few tornadoes
are also possible within any of the more organized rain bands that
are associated with Nate.

As forecast confidence increases overnight tonight into Saturday,
Tropical Storm Watches may be issued for portions of central and
north Georgia.

This is an evolving and challenging forecast. Please stay tuned
to the latest forecasts and information from the National
Hurricane Center, and the National Weather Service in Peachtree
City.
 
Lynsy said:
I meant the structure of the storm itself....not that it would necessarily be "better", damage and destruction wise. Apologies.

It's just that it's looked like a raggedy piece of mess imo, it's actually starting to "look better" as far as it actually is looking more like a TS now in terms of the look of the storm itself. I never said I desired a bigger storm...geezus lol. This is a weather board. This is what folks do here. We follow weather, be it tropical, tornadic, winter, etc. I didn't mean any harm. I just meant the storm itself is looking healthier on satellite.
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TY for that response no need to apologize, not intended to be critical of you just saw it as a teaching moment for ALL posters to consider.
 
If the current track holds it wouldnt surprise me if Nate has more impact in Western GA than Irma had. With Irma we had little wind but a lot of rain. Could get more wind out of this maybe.
 
18z NAM is west of the 12z run which was a clear east outlier of the 12z runs

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